India Must More Than Double Exports To $2 Trillion By FY31: Commerce Ministry

India will need to more than double its export shipments to meet the government’s ambitious $2 trillion target by FY31, requiring a fundamental transformation of its manufacturing and trade ecosystem, Commerce Ministry Additional Secretary Yashvir Singh said on August 20.

Speaking at the CII Manufacturing Conclave in New Delhi, Singh said the target could not be achieved through gradual improvements alone. India’s total exports reached a record $863 billion in FY26, compared with $468 billion in 2014-15.

India Needs Stronger Supply-Chain Capabilities

Singh said India should move beyond the conventional China+1 strategy, where companies diversify manufacturing away from China, and instead position itself as a reliable and resilient global manufacturing partner.

He said growing geopolitical tensions have exposed vulnerabilities in global supply chains. Trade restrictions, technology controls and export curbs on critical minerals are increasingly being used as strategic tools.

China’s share of global manufacturing value added has risen from around 3% in 1990 to nearly 28% in 2024, while it also has a dominant position in the processing of several critical minerals.

Against this backdrop, Singh urged India to strengthen domestic capabilities in areas such as critical minerals, electronic components and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs).

Industry Urged to Leverage FTAs

Singh also called on Indian businesses to make greater use of the country’s free trade agreements (FTAs) and expand their presence across international markets.

He said FTAs provide Indian exporters with opportunities, but businesses must actively use these agreements to increase market access and exports.

Singh further highlighted the importance of India becoming a standard setter rather than merely a standard taker in global trade. He cited digital platforms and infrastructure initiatives such as UPI, ONDC and BharatNet as examples of Indian systems that could influence global markets.

He said the global trading system is undergoing significant changes, with the WTO facing challenges and geopolitical considerations increasingly shaping trade policies.

For India, he said, the changing environment presents an opportunity to build resilient supply chains, diversify exports and emerge as a trusted manufacturing hub.