Quits And splits Have Led To An Existential Crisis For The INDIA Bloc

‘Quits and splits’ have weakened Opposition unity in the wake of the Tamil Nadu and West Bengal assembly polls, putting the Congress on the defensive. The INDIA bloc meeting in Delhi earlier this week sent a clear signal that the Congress must course-correct before the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections if it hopes to take on the BJP.

UP Assembly Polls Seen As Trial For 2029 General Elections

The UP Assembly poll is being seen as a trial of strength ahead of the general elections in 2029. Stakes for the Opposition are high, and even more so for the Congress. The alliance with the Samajwadi Party, the only other member of the INDIA alliance with a double-digit presence in the Lok Sabha, is of paramount importance in keeping the Opposition together and bolstering the Congress prospects.

Congress Needs To Placate Akhilesh Yadav

That the Congress needs to placate Akhilesh Yadav was evident at the alliance meeting. He has been critical of the dumping of the DMK, an issue that figured prominently in the discussions. The Congress found itself in the crosshairs, with its leadership being called into question. Significantly, the meeting was held at the Constitution Club rather than the residence of Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge or Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi, who had hosted the previous get-togethers. Clearly, the regional parties wanted to be on neutral ground while criticising the main Opposition party.

INDIA Bloc Strength Declines

The numerical strength of the INDIA bloc has shrunk from 234 seats in the Lok Sabha to 190 after the exit of the DMK and AAP and the split in the TMC. Its share of legislative assembly members now accounts for 27 per cent, less than half that of the NDA. While parties have quit or split, new members have not joined. The absence of the TVK, the Congress’ new senior partner in Tamil Nadu, was attributed to its lack of a national-level footprint. However, the same can be said of three other parties which do not have a presence in Parliament but were nonetheless represented.

Allies Hold Congress Responsible

That the allies hold the Congress responsible for the attrition of the INDIA bloc was evident from the disapproval of its attitude towards coalition partners, whether in Tamil Nadu or in Bihar. Reportedly, Yadav reproved the Congress for prioritising self-interest over unity. While the Left complained of the intemperate language used by Gandhi during the Kerala campaign, Yadav observed that the Congress leadership in the states had been found wanting, a point endorsed by RJD chief Tejashwi Yadav. The message was clear: the Congress cannot ride on the shoulders of regional partners when convenient and turn against them when it is not.

SP-Congress Alliance Holds For Now

The SP-Congress alliance holds good for now, but the Congress will have to watch its step, as Akhilesh Yadav will not allow a repeat of Bihar. The RJD-Congress alliance failed spectacularly in the 2025 assembly elections, with the Congress seen as making unrealistic demands given its lack of an organisational base in Bihar. The conduct of Congress election managers, tussles between workers of both parties, and confusion over seat sharing vitiated the atmosphere and resulted in ‘friendly contests’ on several seats.

Congress Lacks Organisational Strength In UP

In UP, as in Bihar, the Congress lacks organisational strength. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress seat share in UP plunged from 21 to two, and in 2019, it managed only a single seat. The 2022 assembly election saw the Congress vote share shrink to an all-time low of 2.3 per cent. The alliance with the SP in 2024 delivered significant gains for the Congress. Its strike rate of 33 per cent and a vote share of 9.5 per cent translated into six seats. Small wonder the Congress sees the alliance with the SP in UP as vital for its prospects in 2029. For Yadav, the advantage is in terms of consolidating the minority vote.

Seat-Sharing Tussle

But the SP leader has reportedly taken a tough stance on seat sharing by making it clear that the allocation of seats will be based on ground realities and not on alliance arithmetic. In other words, seats will not be assigned on an arbitrary basis, purely to accommodate allies. The winnability and grassroots support of prospective Congress nominees should be assessed before they are given a ticket. On the other hand, the Congress wants to be allocated ‘winnable’ seats.

Yadav had supported AAP against the Congress in the 2025 Delhi elections on similar grounds. He had said that the objective was to defeat the BJP, and as the Congress was not in a position to do so, it made sense to throw his weight behind AAP. If Yadav sticks to his stand, the Congress will find itself in a tough spot. It won just two of 399 seats in 2022 and has only a handful of candidates who can take on the BJP on their own.

BJP Performance And Opposition Challenges

While the BJP’s relatively poor performance in 2024 has buoyed the Opposition’s hopes, opinion polls point to a ‘200 paar’ victory for the ruling party. UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath continues to enjoy considerable popularity both within and outside his state and was judged as the best-performing CM by respondents across the country in a 2025 poll (for the 11th time). Besides, the internal tussle which had impacted the BJP in the general elections is said to have been sorted out. Yadav has his work cut out for him.

Future Of Opposition Alliance

The future of the Opposition alliance could well depend on its performance in the UP assembly elections. The Congress cannot afford any missteps along the lines of Bihar. It must course-correct and be more respectful of its allies.

About The Author

Bhavdeep Kang is a senior journalist with 35 years of experience in working with major newspapers and magazines. He is now an independent writer and author.

Published on: Wednesday, June 10, 2026, 10:01 PM IST