Assembly elections 2022: It all boils down to Uttar Pradesh

Assembly elections rarely decide India’s future but the outcome in Uttar Pradesh is bound to have dramatic consequences for national politics. While the result in Punjab will also be significant, it is Uttar Pradesh that will laydown the roadmap for the future both in terms of content and direction. The long-drawn seven-phase polling has finally come to an end and the importance of people’s verdict cannot be overstated, given the volatile circumstances caused by the worst global pandemic, and the consequent economic downturn, have created.

While opinion polls have suggested a clear edge to the BJP, ground realities manifest something entirely different. The BJP has faced stiff resistance across the state, even violent reprisal at many places, indicating a far closer contest than widely anticipated. An upset cannot be ruled out before the people’s verdict is finally out on March 10. If the BJP wins again, Narendra Modi’s prospects of retaining power for the third term will doubtlessly brighten up once again. Victory in Uttar Pradesh will not only embolden Modi to sustain the fight, but it will also demoralize the collective opposition which believes socio-economic conditions aren’t favourable for BJP. It will after all be nothing short of a miracle if BJP pulls it off despite the searing price rise, Covid mismanagement, and unprecedented unemployment. The caste equations have also changed in this election, putting BJP at a great disadvantage. The less said the better about the impact of the farmers’ movement on western parts of the state. If BJP defies political logic to survive, the entire credit will go to Modi’s perseverance and the invincibility of the Hindutva agenda in northern India.

If BJP loses, the most tangible signs of their decline will be on display for the first time since Modi ascended to power in 2014. Though BJP lost some critical elections in the recent past, Uttar Pradesh slipping out of its hand will be catastrophic. That will not only shake Modi’s confidence, but it will also suck the energy to fight back out of the RSS-BJP’s systems. Worse, it will inject a new lease of life into the opposition which has so far been unable to corner the government despite myriad failures. A new national front that is sprouting in the imagination of opposition leaders will take shape. Global conditions are also doomed to worsen, with the Russia-Ukraine war pushing the prices to unbearable levels and economic sanctions further upsetting the recovery processes. The inevitable surge in prices of petroleum products, edible oil, pulses, and other commodities will anyway push the Modi Government on the defensive. Defeat in Uttar Pradesh under such volatile circumstances may turn out to be a lethal political blow that BJP may find difficult to handle.

Chances of internal squabbles within the BJP coming to the fore is also possible incase of a debacle in Uttar Pradesh; while the resentment against Yogi Adityanath may burst out, opposition to the Modi-Shah style of leadership can also start manifesting itself in different forms. There are murmurs of discontent within the RSS also, with a section being unhappy about the Modi-Shah dominance, and a debacle in Uttar Pradesh can open the floodgates to countless troubles. A serious challenge in the presidential election coming up in July and the BJP’s strength diminishing in Rajya Sabha could be some of them, apart from the loss of confidence among the cadre. Fragile coalitions like the one in Bihar may also come under further strain while Congress too will feel emboldened to confront BJP with much greater vigour in the Gujarat election later this year.

The BJP’s defeat in the state that sends 80 members to the Lok Sabha will also affect the bureaucracy and rebuild the intellectual resistance that has subdued after the 2019 parliamentary results. The BJP’s control over the narrative is the most potent weapon it has and Uttar Pradesh has the capacity to alter that reality. Nobody understands this better than Modi-Shah and hence they have spared no pains, left no stone unturned, in their desperate quest to protect its most important citadel. They will at least hope for a fragmented verdict that allows them to negotiate the power-sharing arrangement with parties like the Bahujan Samaj Party. Pollsters believe the BJP had won by such a huge margin in 2017 that slipping beyond a point--that will kick it out of the race for power --looks impossible. But, as they say, people are the real masters of democracy. Wait for March 10.

Published on: Tuesday, March 08, 2022, 08:33 AM IST