El Niño To Strengthen By 2026-End: Will Maharashtra Witness A Warmer Winter?

Mumbai: The El Nino effect, which brought in deficit rainfall this monsoon season, is expected to strengthen towards the end of 2026, raising concerns over its potential impact on Maharashtra’s winter season. It is commonly predicted as that due to the climatic conditions a warmer-than-usual winter with fewer and shorter cold spells is possible. However, it is not guaranteed as experts point out that winter temperatures in Mumbai and other parts of Maharashtra are largely influenced by several factors, including regional weather systems, wind patterns, and the movement of cold air from northern India.

From last few days, the minimum temperatures in Mumbai and interiors of Maharashtra have started dropping, specially in the mornings, hinting towards a healthy winter start. On Sunday, city's Santacruz observatory recorded a minimum temperature of 19.2°C, a 2.4°C below normal. While cities like Pune and Nashik recorded minimum temperatures around 12-13°C, which were also below normal. As per IMD, Baramati recorded the lowest temperature in the region at 11.9°C.

As per IMD's local weather forecast for Mumbai city and suburbs for the next 48 hours, the skies will be hazy in the mornings and mainly clear in during afternoon and evenings. The maximum and minimum temperatures will be around 34°C and 20°C, respectively.

Independent weather interpretor Rajesh Kapadia said, "The key distinction is that El Niño may influence the broader atmospheric circulation, but Maharashtra's winter temperatures depend strongly on regional wind patterns and synoptic conditions."

"In coming days, Pune and Madhya Maharashtra are potential for cool nights and larger day–night temperature differences; North Maharashtra's Nashik, Dhule and Jalgaon may experience sharper cold spells during northerly wind incursions; and Vidarbha's Nagpur and surrounding areas can experience significant winter minimum-temperature declines. While in Mumbai and Konkan region, the maritime influence limits cooling, although brief cooler spells can occur with sustained northerly or northeasterly winds, " Kapadia added.

Former director of IMD Mumbai Sunil Kamble said, "The El Nino effect should not de directly considered for winter season. It affects monsoon majorly. For Mumbai and Maharashtra, the winter depends on westerly winds disturbances and rainfall in the northeast."

Meanwhile, amid the drier and cooler weather, the air quality index (AQI) of Mumbai and its metropolitan region continues to stay in moderate category. As per central pollution control board's data, the city's overall AQI on Sunday was 136, Navi Mumbai was at 133 and Thane at 113. The stations which recorded poorest AQI included- Navy Nagar-Colaba (243), Ghatkopar (182), Chembur (168), Deonar (197) and Malad West (164).

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