Bihar Election Results 2025: The 10 Crucial Seats Exit Polls Predict Could Shape The Final Verdict

The 2025 Bihar Assembly election is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent memory. Exit polls suggest a tight race in several high-profile constituencies, with many heavyweight leaders locked in neck-and-neck contests.

While most surveys give an overall edge to the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the numbers vary. NDTV’s poll of exit polls projects around 146 seats for the NDA out of 243, with the opposition Mahagathbandhan likely to get about 92. However, the India Today-Axis My India poll shows a much closer contest, projecting Tejashwi Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) as the single-largest party with 67–76 seats.

Old Rivals, New Stakes

This election has been a mix of old loyalties and fresh faces. Veteran leaders defended their strongholds while debutants tried to break into the political landscape. Exit polls from India Today, ABP News, Times Now, and News18 have spotlighted ten key seats, each with its own drama.

From family feuds to ideological showdowns, these contests capture Bihar’s changing political landscape and the evolving choices of its voters.

Raghopur: Tejashwi Holds the Fort

Raghopur, a Yadav stronghold in Vaishali, remains Tejashwi Yadav’s base. Facing off against BJP’s Satish Kumar, the RJD leader is expected to win comfortably. Axis My India data suggests his core voter base has stayed loyal.

A BJP insider had claimed Tejashwi might lose, but most observers dismiss this as political posturing. If the exit polls are right, Raghopur will reinforce the RJD’s hold over its heartland and boost Tejashwi’s image statewide.

Mahua: Brothers at War

Just nearby in Mahua, politics got personal. Tejashwi’s elder brother, Tej Pratap Yadav, contested under his new party JJD after being ousted from the RJD. He faced the RJD’s official candidate Mukesh Raushan and the NDA’s Sanjay Singh in a triangular battle.

Exit polls call this a photo-finish, with ABP suggesting Tej Pratap’s future hangs in the balance. The feud split the Yadav vote, making this race more about family than governance. If Tej Pratap pulls off a win, it could signal the enduring emotional pull of Lalu Prasad’s legacy.

Tarapur: All Eyes on Samrat Choudhary

In Munger’s Tarapur, BJP state president and Deputy CM Samrat Choudhary is contesting from his home turf. Facing RJD’s Arun Kumar Shah, Choudhary seems to have the upper hand.

Exit polls suggest a clean win for him, making this a prestige battle for the NDA’s OBC strategy. A win would solidify the BJP’s backward caste outreach and show that their formula of mixing caste arithmetic with development promises is working in rural Bihar.

Lakhisarai: A BJP Stronghold Tested

Deputy CM Vijay Kumar Sinha is eyeing a sixth win from Lakhisarai. Facing Jan Suraaj’s Suraj Kumar, exit polls suggest he remains firmly in control.

With a strong RSS presence and a sizable Bhumihar population, Lakhisarai has been reliable for the NDA. If Sinha wins as expected, it will reinforce the ruling alliance’s grip on its traditional vote banks.

Patna Sahib: A Generational Face-Off

In urban Patna Sahib, the BJP replaced veteran Nand Kishore Yadav with younger candidate Ratnesh Kushwaha. He faces Congress’s Shashant Shekhar in a contest that reflects Bihar’s shifting urban pulse.

Though exit polls show the BJP likely to hold the seat, a reduced margin could signal growing urban restlessness. Yet, a win here would confirm the NDA’s appeal among urban voters who value stability over slogans.

Phulwari: Left Faces a Right Hook

Phulwari, a CPI(ML) Liberation seat, could flip this year. JD(U)’s Shyam Rajak challenged sitting MLA Gopal Ravidas despite being part of the ruling alliance. The move sparked criticism but may work in NDA’s favour.

Exit polls suggest that the split in opposition votes could help the NDA snatch the seat. If so, it would show how even left bastions are vulnerable when fragmented.

Mokama: Bahubali vs. the Rest

Mokama brought back the spotlight on muscle politics. JD(U)’s Anant Singh, currently in jail, contested from behind bars. He faced RJD’s Veena Devi, wife of his rival Suraj Bhan, and Jan Suraaj’s Priyadarshi Piyush.

Exit polls offer no clear call, but the overall NDA lead suggests Singh could still pull through. If he wins, it will highlight the power of personal loyalty in Bihar, even amid criminal charges.

Alinagar: Can Fame Beat Groundwork?

Folk singer Maithili Thakur made her debut in Alinagar on a BJP ticket. She faces RJD’s experienced Binod Mishra and Jan Suraaj’s Biplaw Choudhary.

While the BJP hoped to convert her popularity into votes, exit polls give mixed signals. If she wins, it proves the power of fresh faces. If not, it’s a reminder that celebrity doesn’t always translate to credibility in rural politics.

Sheohar: A Border Gamble

Border constituency Sheohar is considered a wild card. With its history of flip-flops and cross-border migration issues, it’s unpredictable.

Though not singled out in exit polls, the NDA’s strong push here suggests it might cause an upset. A win would mean their development pitch reached even Bihar’s remotest corners.

Kishanganj: Mahagathbandhan’s Last Fortress

Kishanganj in Seemanchal remains a Mahagathbandhan stronghold. Congress holds sway here thanks to its minority-dominated demographics.

Exit polls show this seat staying with the opposition. If the NDA somehow grabs it, it would mark a major ideological shift. But most analysts think Kishanganj will resist the wave.

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Verdict Preview: All Eyes on November 14

These ten contests show how fragmented and fiercely contested Bihar’s political terrain remains. While the NDA looks set to return to power, several seats remain too close to call.

The final results on November 14 will not just decide the state government, but also shape narratives for the 2025 general elections. One thing is clear: from dynasties to debutantes, Bihar’s voters have made their choices. Now, it’s time to count.