Inflation Data & Q2 Earnings To Guide Markets, Global Cues & FII Activity In Focus This Week

New Delhi: Indian stock markets are likely to witness cautious trading this week as investors await key macroeconomic data and corporate earnings for directional cues. Analysts said inflation figures, global market trends, and foreign investor activity will be the major drivers of sentiment in the days ahead.

Inflation Numbers in Focus

Market participants will keep a close watch on the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation data for October, which are expected to provide fresh insights into the inflation trajectory and the Reserve Bank of India’s policy outlook. The figures will play a critical role in shaping expectations for future interest rate decisions.

Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice-President, Research at Religare Broking Ltd, said, “This week will be crucial, with several key macroeconomic data releases scheduled. The focus will be on inflation data and quarterly earnings from large-cap companies such as ONGC, Bajaj Finserv, Asian Paints, Tata Steel and Oil India, which will provide sectoral direction to the market.”

Global Trends and Crude Oil Movement

Analysts also pointed out that global developments — particularly the ongoing US government shutdown — will influence investor sentiment. The shutdown has disrupted the release of key US economic data, making it harder for investors to gauge the actual state of the American economy.

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, noted that both domestic inflation readings and global macroeconomic conditions will shape market mood. “The October CPI data will give investors a clearer view of the likely interest rate path,” he added.

Market Recap and Outlook

Last week, the benchmark indices ended in the red in a holiday-shortened trading week, with the BSE Sensex falling 722.43 points or 0.86 per cent and the NSE Nifty losing 229.8 points or 0.89 per cent.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, said, “Going ahead, the market direction will depend on inflation data, FII flows, developments related to the US shutdown, and trade negotiations involving the US, India, and China.”