India’s Edible Oil Output Seen At 9.6 Million Tonnes In 2025–26, Imports Likely To Touch 16.7 Million Tonnes: IVPA

New Delhi, Feb 9: India’s edible oil production is estimated at 9.6 million tonnes in the 2025–26 marketing year, and the country will have to import around 16.7 million tonnes of cooking oils to meet domestic demand, according to industry body IVPA.

India imports soybean oil mainly from Argentina and Brazil, while palm oil is sourced from Malaysia and Indonesia. Of the total domestic demand, the country has to import about 60 per cent of the quantity.

Global volatility in edible oil markets

Addressing a conference in Kuala Lumpur, Indian Vegetable Oil Producers’ Association (IVPA) President Sudhakar Desai noted that “global edible oil markets have entered a phase of structural volatility, driven by trade realignments, biofuel mandates and supply rigidity”.

In a statement on Monday, Desai, who is also the CEO of Emami Agrotech Ltd, said geopolitical restructuring has altered global trade corridors.

Speaking on the topic ‘Navigating Structural Shifts in Global Edible Oils: Implications for India’, he said, “Small adjustments in duties, mandates or trade flows are now producing disproportionate price swings across the supply chain”.

Import outlook for 2025–26

India’s domestic edible oil production is estimated at 9.6 million tonnes in the 2025–26 oil year (October–September), covering only about 40 per cent of Indian needs. This means dependence on imports of around 16.7 million tonnes, Desai forecast.

According to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), India imported 16 million tonnes of edible oils for nearly Rs 1.61 lakh crore during the 2024–25 marketing year ended October.

In 2025–26, Desai said total imports are expected to comprise 8–8.5 million tonnes of palm oil, 5–5.5 million tonnes of soybean oil, 2.8–3 million tonnes of sunflower oil, and around 2 lakh tonnes of other oils, including zero-duty imports routed through Nepal.

Price sensitivity and margins

“India’s import basket remains highly sensitive to inter-oil price differentials, particularly between palm and soybean oil. A USD 50–60 per tonne shift in spreads is sufficient to reallocate volumes at scale, highlighting the absence of stickiness at the bulk oil level,” he said.

Palm oil imports have declined from over 10 million tonnes in 2021–22 to around 8 million tonnes. Refining margins remain under pressure, constraining demand momentum, Desai said.

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Trade policy impact

On trade policy, Desai said recently concluded free trade agreements and bilateral arrangements with partners such as the US, EU, Australia, UAE and SAFTA members have become integral to market pricing and sourcing decisions.

“These agreements now directly influence landed cost structures, arbitrage flows and refining economics,” he said.

The IVPA is a five-decade-old trade body representing India’s edible oil and oilseed value chain.

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