Seat Sharing Issues For INDIA In Bihar

The apparent success of the Vote Adhikar Yatra led by Rahul Gandhi in Bihar and the optimism surrounding the INDIA bloc’s prospects in the upcoming state elections have resulted in two more parties joining the grouping, but on the flip side, delicate seat-sharing negotiations are likely to get more complex. With the entry of the Pasupati Kumar Paras-led Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party and the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha led by Hemant Soren, seats will have to be allocated to them too. The other partners of the INDIA grouping in Bihar are the RJD, Congress, CPI(ML), CPI, CPM and the Vikassheel Insaan Party of Mukesh Sahani. The 243 seats in the state Assembly will have to be divided among these parties. The RJD, whose leader Tejashwi Yadav has already declared himself as the alliance’s chief ministerial face, wants at least 150 seats, while the Congress, buoyed by the success of Rahul’s yatra, is insisting on 70 to 90 seats. However, in view of the new entrants, they might scale down their demands. VIP is demanding at least 60 seats as well as the post of deputy chief minister in the event of the INDIA bloc securing a victory. The left parties, too, are seeking their pound of flesh, particularly the CPI (ML), citing its past performance. The JMM will have to be accommodated, as the RJD and Congress are part of the coalition alliance led by the party in Jharkhand. The RJD may allocate the JMM seats from its share.

In the 2020 Bihar Assembly election, the RJD contested 144 seats and the Congress 70 seats. The CPI (ML) put up candidates in 19 seats, the CPI in six and the CPI (M) in four. The Opposition Mahagatbandhan won 110 seats compared to the NDA’s 125 seats. Caste equations came into play as usual, with the RJD and Congress banking on the Yadav and minority votes. This year the entry of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj party may upset this tried and tested caste interplay. Along with the left parties, the Jan Suraj too is banking on the working-class vote and the youth demographic. They hope Gen Next will shift away from jaded caste formulae and look towards a future involving job prospects and educational opportunities. By focusing on the caste census, the Congress and RJD hope to woo the backward castes, Dalits and the marginalised. Both the INDIA bloc and the NDA have to walk the tightrope between caste and class in their bid for electoral victory. The NDA has also decided to throw in the religion card by laying the foundation stone of a grand Sita temple in Sitamarhi district. No doubt campaigning will throw up communal overtures, with the bogey of infiltration already being raised by the Special Intensive Revision of rolls. Whether the Opposition has managed to convince people about the alleged ‘vote fraud’ remains to be seen. It is now over to the voters of Bihar.