India’s Above-Normal Monsoon Brings Mixed Fortunes For Kharif Crops; Excess Rainfall Damages Paddy, Pulses, Cotton

The southwest monsoon 2025 commenced its withdrawal by mid-September. It is time to evaluate its performance and look at harvest prospects of key crops. The good news is, as forecast by the IMD, the country has enjoyed above-normal rainfall. Between June 1 and September 27, the country received 922 mm of rainfall, 8 per cent above normal.

While east and northeast India (mainly Bihar and Assam) suffered a 19 per cent rainfall deficiency, the northwest parts (mainly Punjab and Rajasthan) had a 28 per cent surplus, central India 13 per cent and the southern peninsula 11 per cent.

While the total quantum of rainfall during the season is important, temporal and spatial distribution is critical for agriculture. From that perspective, August and September witnessed excessive precipitation in some parts of the country (Punjab, Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Rajasthan) that has reportedly inflicted crop damage.

Although reports of adverse impact on paddy and pulse crops are already in the public domain, assessment of the extent of damage is still going on. Anecdotal reports suggest, in addition to crop losses, excessive rains have impacted crop quality.

Here’s an assessment of the likely harvest size of key Kharif crops. Forecast production numbers are given in a range. The planted area is as of September 26.

RICE: The season’s production target set by the government is 123 million metric tonnes (MMT). The normal planted area (5-year average) is 40.3 million hectares (ml ha). This season, the planted area as of September 26 was 44.2 ml ha, slightly higher than last year’s 43.6 ml ha. The rice crop is estimated at 123 to 125 MMT (up from 121.8 MMT in 2024). Rice stocks in the country are far above the buffer norm. Export restrictions have been lifted.

MAIZE: The production target for the season is 26 MMT. At 9.5 ml ha, maize has witnessed a marked expansion in planted area (8.8 ml ha last year) following higher demand for the crop for ethanol production to meet the government’s biofuel blending programme. Maize harvest size should be 26 to 27 MMT, higher than the 24.8 MMT of the last Kharif.

PULSES: This protein-rich legume has faced challenges. While the production target itself was reduced from 9.5 MMT in 2024 to 8.0 MMT this season, the planted area has declined by one million hectares to 12.0 ml ha this season (5-year average 13 ml ha) as growers received poor returns and shifted to more remunerative crops like maize. Despite satisfactory initial rains, excessive rainfall in August in pockets of Maharashtra and Karnataka has damaged crops. Production is set to decline to anything between 6.7 and 7.0 MMT, well below even the reduced target. To augment availability and rein in prices, the import of pigeon pea (tur/arhar) and black matpe (urad) has been allowed free until March 2026.

OILSEEDS: In addition to two key oilseeds of the Kharif season, soybean and groundnut, small quantities of sesamum, niger seed, sunflower seed and castor seed are also cultivated. The soybean planted area is down to 12 ml ha this season (down a million hectares from last year), while the groundnut area is marginally down to 4.8 ml ha. Considering satisfactory rainfall over the soy belt in Madhya Pradesh, Vidharba in Maharashtra, and parts of Rajasthan, the yield is expected to be satisfactory.

The soybean harvest size is likely to be in the 12.0-12.5 MMT range, falling well short of the 16.2 MMT target. It is widely recognised that the government’s 2024 production estimate of 15.2 MMT was overstated by 15 to 20%. In effect, there’s no significant change in soybean production.

Given that the groundnut bowl of India, Gujarat, received excellent rainfall, yields are set to improve there. Overall, the groundnut crop size would be in the 11 to 12 MMT range, higher than the production target of 10.5 MMT and higher than 10.4 MMT last Kharif.

COTTON: This multipurpose crop (fibre, food, and feed) has been losing acreage for the last three years. This season, it is down to 11.0 ml ha (last year, 11.3 ml ha, and the 5-year average, 12.9 ml ha). Excessive rains in key cotton-growing areas of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Punjab and pest infestation resulted in crop loss.

The government reduced the production target from last year’s 35 million bales (170 kg each) to 33.5 million bales this year. Yet, the harvest size is set to fall to 29.5-30.5 million bales, far short of even the reduced target. Last year, production was 30.7 million bales.

Crop quality is also likely to be compromised. India is now a net importer of raw cotton. Free import is allowed till December 31, 2025. For 2025-26, the import is forecast at 3.5-4.0 million bales.

SUGARCANE: The planted area has been expanding steadily and stands at 5.9 ml ha this year (sugar year 2025-26), up from last year’s 5.7 ml ha and the 5-year average of 5.2 ml ha. As compared with the cane production target of 469 MMT and the 2024 production of 450 MMT, this year the cane output risks a decline to 440-460 MMT because of excessive rainfall in the growing areas of Maharashtra and Karnataka.

The government has recently lifted the December 2023 restriction on the diversion of cane for ethanol. After allowing for the cane diversion for ethanol, the sugar production for 2025-26 is likely to be around 30 MMT, slightly less than last year. Rains continued in southern and western parts of the country till the end of September. This can inflict more damage and delay damage assessment.

The good news is that the continuing rains are expected to improve soil moisture for Rabi planting (major crops: wheat, rapeseed/mustard, chana/chickpea) to commence late October onwards. The reservoir storage levels are satisfactory and higher than last year.

Given the combination of Kharif production prospects, public stocks of wheat and rice with government agencies, and a liberal import policy (pulses, edible oil), the risk to food inflation is not to the upside, but to the downside.

If Rabi prospects turn out to be satisfactory, food prices may remain consumer-friendly. Weather could be a spoilsport.

Note: Except for the forecast of Kharif 2025 crop production (G. Chandrashekhar’s proprietary research), all data—acreage, rainfall, production target, etc.—are the government’s official numbers.

G. Chandrashekhar is economist, senior editor and policy commentator specializing in agribusiness and commodity markets. Views are personal.

Published on: Wednesday, October 08, 2025, 04:00 AM IST