Indian Equity Market Enters New Growth Cycle Amid Festive Demand And GST Cuts: Report

New Delhi, Oct 15: India’s equity markets are poised for a strong festive quarter, driven by rate cuts, GST 2.0 reforms and improving domestic liquidity, a report said on Wednesday.

The second half of FY26 will deliver broader market strength, led by financials, consumption, infrastructure, and power sectors, as policy reforms and festive sentiment fuel fresh opportunities, according to the report from investment platform Smallcase.

Key Drivers: FII Inflows, Credit Expansion, and Earnings Momentum

Renewed FII inflows, credit expansion, and healthy earnings momentum are likely to power the next leg of the market rally, the report said.

Analysts said that microfinance, consumer discretionary, and public sector banks may emerge as key beneficiaries of this trend.

GST Cuts and Rate Reductions Boost Affordability

"GST cuts are improving affordability, while rate cuts are easing credit flow. Urban and rural demand is converging, backed by increased electrification, aspirational spending and credit access penetration. Moreover, recent rate cuts will make EMIs fall, making high-ticket consumer goods more affordable," said Robin Arya, Investment Manager, Smallcase, and Founder, GoalFi.

Rural and Discretionary Demand to Drive Growth

MFIs will see a boost as monsoon-driven rural income and the festive season in H2 FY26 underpin a pickup in fresh disbursements, especially in two-wheeler and consumer durable loans, he added.

Strong Consumption Indicators

The festive period from October to December traditionally drives 35-40 per cent of annual consumption across discretionary categories. Early indicators suggest strong momentum, with e-commerce sales projected at Rs 1.2 lakh crore (up 27 per cent YoY), UPI transactions crossing 20 billion in August 2025, and MSME festive credit demand expected to surge 35-40 per cent to Rs 3.45 lakh crore, Smallcase said.

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Government and RBI Support Market Outlook

The RBI has upgraded FY26 growth to 6.8 per cent, citing strong rural demand supported by good monsoon, robust agricultural activity, and gradually reviving urban demand. The government announced Rs 11.21 lakh crore capex allocation for FY26, supporting infrastructure-led growth, particularly benefiting sectors like railways, roads, and urban development.

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