India May Have 190 Nuclear Warheads, More Weapon Systems In Development: US Think Tank

India's nuclear arsenal is estimated at 190 warheads, including 30 additional warheads for new missiles under production, according to a report by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), a US nonprofit policy think tank.

The FAS arrived at the estimates after analysing a combination of open-source information, state-originating data and commercial satellite imagery.

“Based on available public information about its nuclear-capable delivery force structure and strategy, we estimate that India may have produced around 190 nuclear warheads,” according to the article titled India's Nuclear Weapons – 2026, written by FAS Nuclear Information Project Director Hans Kristensen.

India's nuclear arsenal includes more than 160 warheads for operational launchers, besides additional warheads for new missiles under production, the report said.

India Continues To Modernise Nuclear Arsenal

The article, published on Wednesday, said India continued to modernise its nuclear arsenal, with several new weapon systems fielded in recent years and several others under development to complement or replace existing nuclear-capable aircraft and land- and sea-based delivery systems.

"We estimate that India may have produced enough military plutonium for 140 to 225 nuclear warheads and might have assembled up to 190. With more weapon systems in development, the country's warhead stockpile will likely increase further,” it said.

India adopted the no-first-use doctrine after the Pokhran-II nuclear tests in 1998 and continues to adhere to the policy.

“India is committed to maintaining credible minimum deterrence and a posture of ‘no first use’ of nuclear weapons,” the government told Parliament recently.

Plutonium Stock Could Support 140 To 225 Warheads

Citing the International Panel on Fissile Materials, the FAS article said India was estimated to have produced about 730 kg, plus or minus about 170 kg, of weapon-grade plutonium as of the beginning of 2026.

“Assuming approximately four kilogrammes of plutonium per warhead, this would theoretically be sufficient for producing anywhere between 140 and 225 nuclear warheads,” it said.

However, the article cautioned that the calculation involved several uncertainties, including the types of warhead designs India has produced.

Also Watch:

Uncertainty Over Warhead Designs

India's 1998 nuclear tests reliably validated a fission design, but the country's progress on boosted fission and thermonuclear weapon designs remains highly uncertain, according to the article.

“Regardless of the warhead designs, it is unlikely that India has used all its plutonium to produce warheads, and it may have kept some in reserve,” the author noted.

The report also said the size of India's nuclear stockpile depends on the number and types of launchers capable of delivering the warheads, as the country is unlikely to produce significantly more warheads than its delivery systems can launch.