IMD Forecasts Below-Normal Rainfall In Sep As El Niño May Play Spoil Sport

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall for September, the final month of the southwest monsoon season, warning that strengthening El Niño conditions could impact precipitation across the country.

IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said most parts of India are expected to receive deficit rainfall during the month, although some areas in eastern, northeastern and central India may receive normal or above-normal rainfall.

El Niño raises concerns over monsoon deficit

The weather agency said moderate to strong El Niño conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific and are expected to intensify in the coming months. These conditions could contribute to weaker monsoon activity during September.

The IMD defines rainfall between 94% and 90% of the long period average (LPA) as below normal, while precipitation below 90% of the benchmark is classified as deficient.

The southwest monsoon season has already recorded a deficit of 13.8% against the benchmark after three months. If the trend continues, overall rainfall during the June-September period could fall below 90% of the LPA, making 2026 the weakest monsoon season since 2009.

Regional rainfall gaps widen across India

Rainfall distribution has remained uneven during the season. Out of around 740 districts, nearly 47% have received deficient to large deficient rainfall, while about 52% have recorded normal to excess precipitation.

Central India, the core monsoon region, has received near-normal rainfall with a deficit of only 3.8%. However, other regions have faced significant shortages, including northwest India with a 10.7% deficit, east and northeast India with a 25.7% shortfall and the southern peninsula with a 24.2% deficit.

After a weak June with rainfall 36% below normal, July witnessed some recovery with precipitation 1% above the LPA. However, August again recorded a deficit of 16.3%, with most regions except central India receiving inadequate rainfall.

The IMD had earlier lowered its monsoon forecast for June-September to 90% of LPA and estimated an 84% probability of below-normal or deficient rainfall during the season.