Donald Trump's Tariff Waiver Not India-Specific, Says Kanwal Sibal As Experts Flag Reversal Risk

New Delhi: Diplomats, economists and analysts have struck a cautious note after US President Donald Trump waived provisions of the Lindsey Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act (SRIA) of 2026, which authorised him to impose 100% tariffs on major buyers of Russian oil.

The decision offers considerable relief to India, whose exports to the US could have been severely affected had Washington imposed the threatened tariffs.

However, former Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal cautioned New Delhi against viewing the move as a concession specifically intended for India.

“This waiver is not India-specific,” Sibal said. He argued that once a licence was issued for the global sale of Russian diesel, partly in view of the upcoming US midterm elections, a broader waiver became inevitable. Disagreements with Ukraine and Europe may also have influenced Trump’s calculations.

“Instead of India being collateral damage, it has benefited collaterally,” he said.

Tariff relief remains reversible

The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) echoed this caution, pointing out that Trump had suspended, rather than repealed, the relevant provisions.

“The relief is reversible. Washington can restore the tariffs anytime, leaving India and other buyers uncertain about future US action,” it said.

Rubio's India visit draws attention

Analysts believe the decision could also be linked to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s forthcoming visit to India. Rubio is scheduled to arrive on October 19 and meet External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar on October 20 before travelling to Jamnagar to visit Mukesh Ambani’s refinery.

Foreign policy analyst Brahma Chellaney said the timing was significant, given Jamnagar’s role in processing Russian Urals oil and Venezuelan crude. The State Department has said Rubio’s agenda includes formalising long-term energy cooperation.

Indian imports of US energy decline

The visit comes ahead of the US midterm elections and amid a sharp decline in Indian imports of American crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Ship-tracking data showed that these imports fell 43% in September to 1.22 million tonnes from 2.13 million tonnes in August, their lowest level since April.

Analysts suggest Washington could be seeking greater Indian purchases of American energy. Removing the tariff threat could therefore form part of a broader effort to advance US commercial and strategic interests.

Exporters gain relief from tariffs

For now, the waiver protects Indian exporters from the immediate threat of punitive tariffs. Industry body FICCI welcomed the move, saying it would help safeguard exports to the US.

The stakes are particularly high for India’s garment and handicrafts sectors. A 2025 study by Apparel Resources estimated that US tariffs could wipe out a third of India’s garment exports, worth around $5.33 billion, directly affecting 700,000 workers and indirectly impacting many more.

Also Watch:

Russian oil purchases and trade negotiations

The waiver also gives India greater room to continue purchasing Russian crude, helping preserve energy supplies and economic stability. However, with the underlying provisions still in place, the relief remains vulnerable to a change in US policy.

CareEdge Chief Economist Rajani Sinha told ANI that she viewed the proposed 100% tariffs as a negotiating tactic in the ongoing bilateral trade agreement (BTA) discussions. With the immediate threat lifted, she said, India would need to consider its next steps carefully.