To The Point: Will Jagadish Shettar be the BJP’s nemesis in Karnataka?

House no 31, Madhura Estate, in the city of Hubli has become one of the most high-profile addresses in Karnataka. This is the residence of incumbent MLA Jagadish Shettar, now converted into his campaign office. Shettar, who is a six-time MLA and was also the 15th chief minister of Karnataka, was denied a ticket by the BJP; this unleashed an electoral ripple as he joined the Congress on April 18. In what many would perceive as a Bollywood political thriller, Shettar has been pitted against his own protege or shishya Mahesh Tenginkai propped up by none other than BJP General Secretary (Organisation) BL Santosh. Hubli Dharwad Central assembly segment which has been championed and consolidated for many years by Shettar, in 2023 has become a high-stakes battle for self respect, a battle of ego where BJP wants to portray that Shettar is not bigger than the party, and likewise Shettar is trying to convey to the voters that BJP has humiliated and backstabbed him and that the people of Hubli will not forgive him.

𝗦𝗵𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗮𝗿 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗱 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗜𝗡𝗖

Shettar did have the might to contest the election as an independent but he chose to ally with a national party like Congress even though ideologically it was discordant. Congress cadres have begun to support Shettar but on the ground and during the campaigns Shettar has to do a lot of explaining. During his campaign rallies Shettar accuses one man and that is BL Santosh who is ruining BJP. Santosh was given a free hand in Karnataka and he began the process of sidelining the senior leaders, in Shettar's words Santosh is trying to finish him as part of his game plan to take control of the BJP in Karnataka.

Santhosh’s handling of the BJP’s affairs in Karnataka, his home state, has come in for criticism and he is accused of nursing prejudices against some people and having his own favourites. The Lingayat leader BS Yediyurappa’s meteoric rise in Karnataka politics and his political trajectory, which culminated in his becoming the chief minister for four times, is something that Santhosh has watched closely and formed his own opinion about Yediyurappa’s style of functioning. During Yediyurappa’s first tenure as chief minister between 2008 and 2011, his controversial association with the mining baron Janardhana Reddy, which resulted in a huge scandal and Yediyurappa being asked to resign, happened when AB Vajpayee was the prime minister. At that time, Santhosh was an RSS pracharak in Karnataka and was watching every political development with a keen eye.

When Yediyurappa left the BJP just before the 2013 Assembly polls and formed his own party, the Karnataka Janata Party (KJP), it had disastrous consequences for the BJP and Yediyurappa himself. He returned to the BJP at the invitation of prime minister Modi and played a crucial role in the BJP winning 17 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Santhosh was still watching from the sidelines as a keen observer. Santosh in 2023 wants to spin everything around himself by giving weightage and prominence to those lightweights who were opposed to Yediyurappa and Shettar.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗕𝗝𝗣❜𝘀 '𝗴𝗮𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲'

In Karnataka, the corridors of power are agog with rumours that Santhosh, Basavraj Bommai and Union minister Prahlad Joshi have turned into “a gang of three” and they are acting in tandem in the run-up to the May 10 Assembly elections. They have played a key role in the selection of candidates and there are around 70 new faces, mostly humble party workers, hand-picked by Santhosh to contest these elections. Some sections of the Lingayat community believe that Shettar was sidelined so that he would not be in the race for chief ministership and the field would be clear for Santhosh, Bommai or Joshi, in that order, provided the BJP attains a majority.

Yediyurappa, Shettar, KS Eshwarappa and former union minister Ananth Kumar who died a few years ago actually laid the foundations of the BJP in Karnataka and now with Prime Minister Narendra Modi having given a free hand to Santosh and Prahlad Joshi, the duo are trying to experiment a new BJP doling out the dream of New Karnataka. Both leaders have deliberately sidelined a large section of lingayat leaders, phasing out older faces, churning out a new cocktail of hindutva and historical mythical figures and trying to deliver a narrative which looks seemingly unpalatable for the southern voters. BJP in Karnataka is called a LIBRA party that is a combination of Lingayat and Brahmins. The saffron party has won only because they had sizeable support of this dominant caste group. This time with Lingayats split and polarised, it might be a tough road for BJP.

Prahlad Joshi and BL Santosh have put in all their might to defeat Jagdish Shettar to put across the message that no individual is above the party bugt can they succeed is a big question as the Shettar with his decades of developmental work carries substantive goodwill and sympathy of the voters. The common man on the streets of Hubli feels that Shettar has been ridden over roughshod and that this action has to be vindicated by giving a thumping majority to Shettar who also holds sway on at least 25 to 30 seats. When I met Shettar at his residence, I found he still hasn't removed the photo frames of himself with Prime Minister Modi and Amit Shah; infact he has no complaints against Modi and Shah except that party President JP Nadda did not communicate things clearly to them. Shettar also spoke to me about Yediyurappa's pain, his political compulsion to be seen on BJP's side but not emotionally involved in the campaign this time. All BJP leaders have projected Yeddy on the posters, some 75 rallies have been listed against his name but Yeddy not attending all of them. This is something which the party avoids talking about. Shettar sees Yeddy's criticism as a blessing because he knows heart to heart Yediyurappa is with Shettar.

𝗦𝗵𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗮𝗿'𝘀 𝘃𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗼𝗿 𝗹𝗼𝘀𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲 𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻𝘁

Shettar's victory or loss will be significantly symbolic, indicating whether at all the new experiment has worked in BJP's favour. The Hubli Dharwad Central assembly seat will in that sense be a yardstick to measure BJP's moves. Shettar says he has no regrets and will never go back to BJP. His pain and agony was evident, he even choked while sharing his feelings but seemed confident to bounce back. His political wisdom says its time for BJP's exit and he minced no words in saying that Congress's position has improved drastically. Will Jagdish Shettar prove to be BJP's nemesis?

(Neelu Vyas is a senior television anchor and consulting editor with Satya Hindi.)