Modi's Strategy Falters In Lok Sabha Elections 2024: BJP's Overconfidence Meets Voter Reprisal

As per George Bernard Shaw, an Irish playwright, critic, polemicist and political activist, “the reasonable man adapts himself; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.”

If any politician tends to ignore the woes of common people and ground realities then it amounts to committing a politically suicidal act. Underestimating Indian voters of all backgrounds can lead to unimaginable reprisals, as witnessed post Mrs Gandhi's black regime of emergency, Vajpayee government's 'Shining India' campaign in 2004, and now repeat in the 2024 elections during Modi's era. The evidence of this retaliation is apparent. India's voters, even the illiterate ones, are more sensible and mature than the politicians who attempt to deceive them. In the end, the voters will have the last laugh, as demonstrated by the results of the 2024 polls declared on June 4.

2024 parliamentary polls have proved to be a boon for Congress party as it augers a new era of revival in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan, Haryana, etc. which is being attributed to BJP’s divisive nature of campaigning and focus on Hindutva thereby ignoring the woes of farmers, rural distress, woes of common people, unemployed youths problem, skyrocketing prices etc.

What Went Wrong With BJP Strategy?

Political observers believe that the slogan ‘Char Sau Paar’ was having twin purpose which could not yield positive result. First, BJP wanted to demoralise the opposition which was struggling to put its acts together. Second, this was a latent idea of convincing the people about the certainty of return of NDA to power thereby selling an impression that election was a done deal. But it proved counterproductive as the Indi alliance pounced upon this magnified figure and made it as the core ingredient of a campaign to create scare amongst SC, OBC, and ST etc. about the intentions of Modi to scrap their reservations by amending the constitution. Modi and the entire BJP was on the defensive and failed to clear the air in the minds of these caste groups. Modi and BJP leaders harped on the illogical ideas during campaign including if opposition came to power then Ram temple will be bulldozed, Mangalsutras will be snatched from women, wealth will be distributed amongst Muslims, infiltrators are a danger to society, etc. which seemed to be a panic reaction after the decline in polling percentage during first phase of polling besides making a desperate attempt to polarise the voters thereby alluring Hindus but everything fell flat. As per reports, RSS involvement in pushing for victory of BJP is being debated though nothing is confirmed. Some critics say that RSS recommendations for allotment of tickets were not given weightage which kept it away from aggressive electioneering. But BJP Southward journey was successful. Modi was dubbed as leader of Hindi heartland hence he worked hard to break this jinx and results show expansion of his party’s base. After losing Karnataka in assembly polls, BJP has bounced back and derived the benefit of having an alliance with TDP in Andhra Pradesh.

Dip In Modi’s Personal Popularity

It goes to the credit of Modi to achieve hat trick from Varanasi but it was a bittersweet gift as vote share has come down.PM had bagged seat in 2019 by a margin of 6,74,664(63.62%) votes and polled 5,81,022(57.37 %) votes in 2014 which has dipped to 6,12,970 votes (54.24%) ,a vote difference of 9.38 % in 2024.BJP had won 303 seats in 2019 which has been reduced to mere figure of 240 in 2024.

Modi’s achievement of 3rd term as PM. Jawaharlal Nehru's Indian National Congress achieved an identical remarkable victory, securing 44.7% of the vote and winning 361 out of 494 seats in 1962. In contrast, the BJP, under Narendra Modi, won 238 seats out of 543, with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) collectively securing 294 seats. Unlike the BJP, which will rely on the crutches of coalition partners like the TDP and others, the Congress under Nehru stood strong on its own as other parties were non-existent at that time. This feat is unique which was witnessed in Britain as leaders like Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair also managed to secure three terms. However, managing a coalition government with a thin majority presents its own challenges. The reduced strength of BJP can increase the bargaining power of smaller coalition partners, complicating governance and policy implementation.

Unequal Playing Field

INDIA partners seem to be elated over the response of voters who have shattered the overconfidence of BJP which preferred to ignore the grievances of common people but focussed on Hindutva and negative campaign to denigrate the opposition. BjP was laced with vast resources, disciplined party cadres and investigating agencies which had put two chief ministers including Kejriwal and Jharkhand CM, Hement Siren in jails. Congress party's funds were put to freeze by the income tax department which had affected its’ campaign.

Revival Of Congress

Congress party’s decision to go alone in Punjab yield fruitful result as anti-incumbency factor gave a jolt to Aam Aadmi Party .In an identical manner, Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee rejected any alliance with Congress and communists thereby positioning herself at vintage point in West Bengal which directly affected the performance of saffron party. Congress won six seats in Uttar Pradesh and its revival will rejuvenate the party cadres which have been witnessing continuous slide in the fortunes of the Grand Old Party. Akshilesh Yadav is a ‘Super Hero’ of the entire game plan of alliance in UP as he meticulously undertook social engineering by giving preference to Non Yadvav candidates and allotted 17 tickets to Dalits and 5 only to Yadavs. It was a domain of BJP’s ‘Chankaya’ Amit Shah which was executed to perfection by Akhilesh, chief of Samajwadi party and it helped Congress also .The ‘Duo” comprising Akhilesh-Rahul emerged as victorious though BJP had always ridiculed it quoting their earlier failed sojourn during assembly polls in 2018 . BJP tried to neutralise the Anti-incumbency factor through Ram temple issue but in vain as its two time winner from Faizabad Lallu Singh, a product of communal violence, lost to SP’s Avadhdesh Prasad who polled 48.6%.Ram temple falls in Faizabad district and an identical outcome was witnessed in Sajharahpur also where Arun Govil of famous Ramayana serial lost his seat as Hiduatva could not save him. Yogi’s ‘Bulldozer Raj’ has been responsible for alienating Muslims and overconfidence of high command on Modi’s ‘charisma’ failed to deliver the desired result. Yogi’s ambition to position himself to be a prime ministerial candidate after Modi has also received a big setback.

Horrifying Role Of TV Channels And Print Media Barring Few Papers

Being in profession for 40 years, it is painful to spell out the perturbing truth about horrendous role of the majority of the TV channels(Hindu and English) and newspapers(national as well as regional) barring few like The Telegraph, Deccan herald, The Hindu, Indian Express, The Tribune etc. But someone like me has to do this dirty task to expose such a tendency during the 2024 polls which is not good for democracy. It was beyond imagination to understand the logic of some anchors (obviously with the approval of proprietors and editors) who had taken it upon themselves to sell a bombastic idea of BJP “Char Sau Paar” which has been punctured by mature voters of this great country. The shouting anchors were doing more than even BJP leaders to convince that BJP may cross 370 and NDA is bound to cross 400 mark. In an identical manner, Exit polls went one step further and predicted the seats which were matching with BJP’s projection. A micro level scrutiny has revealed that the pattern of almost all exit polls had been uniform as if they have been sponsored and prepared by some vested interests though it has been vehemently denied by owners of these agencies which conducted the exit polls. It was fun to see the depressed, morose and sullen faces of some editors and anchors of committed national TV channels which gave an impression that they had lost the election.

New regime must take some steps to inject a sense of confidence and security amongst the journalists as India’s ranking in 2023 World Press Freedom Index slipped from 161 to 180 which was revealed in a latest report released by Global Media Watchdog Reporters Without Borders (RSF). The ruling dispensation had out rightly rejected it thereby dubbing it as ‘biased and baseless’. Freedom of expression is directly proportional to the fearless reporting of journalists and NDA government must instill in them a sense of protection and safety.

Challenges Before New Government

Modi will face a biggest challenge of his political career to manage the coalition partners as Telugu Desam Party headed by Chander Babu Naidu and chief minister Nitish Kumar have emerged as 'King Makers 'who may abstract the pound flesh from centre. BJP with its reduced strength will be on the crutches of TDP and JD( U) hence there will be ascendency and enhancement in the bargaining power and Modi may be under obligation to change style of functioning. Experts say that Modi is known for shepherding surprises hence he may pass this litmus test to ensure survival of a fragile coalition which is not based on ideology. Vajpayee was the most moderate and acceptable leader in Indian history hence he faced no problem in running a coalition government. Similarly, Ex PM, Manmohan Singh had smooth sailing during UPA1 but remained a silent spectator to the scams which led to complete rout of the Congress in 2014.Contrary to it, Modi may not tolerate any corruption by the alliance partner and party leaders in the cabinet which make it different from UPA2 of Singh. BJP never gave weightage to its partners during ten year stint and even election was focussed on the brand Modi guarantees but the changed scenario will warrant more respect and proper weightage to partners. 2nd, Now the showdown in parliament will be different after newly elected MPs take oath as Indi partners will have a strong strength of 234 to counter the shouting brigade of BJP which had their sway during ten years of NDA with a brute majority. Ruling party will have to chalk out a strategy to ensure smooth running of Lok Sabha which was not required when BJP and allies ruled the roost. 3rd, Opposition exploited Agniveer Scheme to the hilt which may warrant review especially when several retired generals have expressed their apprehension about their long term utility to army. It is being argued that retired Agniveers may not be technically competent and efficient to handle modern weapons and it would be a huge risk to utilise their services during the eventuality of war. New government must discuss it with opposition and retired army generals to amend its parameters.4th, In view of big setback in these polls, economists say that the Modi government may fall on the idea of considering more freebies which may unsettle the economy hence there will be a need to desist from such temptation. 5th,the new government will have a deal with a very sensitive issue of tackling the America 's threat of imposing sanctions if India did not withdraw from Iran's Chabahar port deal. US sanctions on Iran debars any friendly nation from having any economic relations with such country. America had forced India to stop importing the crude oil from Iran owing to these sanctions which had resulted in huge financial losses every year. It will be an uphill task to ram through fanciful ideas of ‘One nation One election’ or Uniform Civil code as opposition will have strength to block the same. Modi’s popularity is intact but BJP has become habitual of winning elections even in states which were visible in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. In this backdrop, Modi’s ‘Charisma’ will be put to a litmus test, yet again, during the ensuing assembly polls in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand by the end of this year. BJP’s experiment splitting Thkarey and Pawar’s parties has boomeranged in Maharashtra hence the saffron party will have to take help of some magic wand to save its prestige.

Defective Foreign Policy

Modi government's foreign policy has alienated neighbours like Maldives, Nepal etc. hence it needs a ‘Relook’ as they have drifted towards China which is using them to expand its influence in the region. Regarding Pakistan, India should respond to its initiative to have trade ties by keeping political issues aside. Nawaz Sharif Brothers may not be averse to it and Indian PM, Modi had taken initiative in 2015 when he attended the marriage of Nawaz’s daughter but the army had scuttled it. China's expanding ties in the region are evident, and India needs to tread cautiously to counter its influence, as seen in the case of Nepal. The recent political shift in Nepal towards a communist government ideologically aligned with China is worrisome and concerning, especially considering China's "Debt Trap" strategy. Pakistan serves as a stark example, with China extending a massive debt of $23 billion, a substantial portion of which is tied to the Belt and Road Initiative. Pakistan's mounting debt to China, totalling $67.2 billion from 2000 to 2021, underscores the risks associated with this debt dependency. Despite facing economic collapse, Pakistan remains indebted to China, highlighting the potential peril of falling into a debt trap.

In final assessment, Modi will govern the nation for next five years with weakened position of his party and leadership but he has shown resolve to carry on economic reforms to make India as a world power .In the prevailing complex scenario, the opposition is expected to play a constructive role which will be in the interest of people of the country. Experts opine that Modi will have to reassure minorities especially Muslims that campaign utterances must be forgotten and he would sincerely implement BJP slogan, "Sab Ka Vikas Sab Ka Saath"to preserve the spirit of constitution and maintain brotherhood in the society.

Tailpiece. It is a rare occurrence in history for both the ruling party and the opposition to celebrate an election outcome. However, this unusual script was unfolded after the 2024 general elections in India. Both the BJP and Congress expressed elation over their respective victories. Although the BJP fell short of the majority mark of 272 seats but it is poised to form the NDA government with the support of its allies. Meanwhile, the Congress doubled its seat count, signalling a significant revival for the party and justifying their celebrations.

(Writer is political analyst having six year foreign posting experience and senior journalist based in Shimla.)

Published on: Thursday, June 06, 2024, 12:35 PM IST