West Asia Turmoil Brings Down India's International Air Traffic By 1.2 Per Cent; Indian Carriers Lose Passengers While Foreign Rivals Gain Ground

Mumbai, May 21: The escalating and prolonged geopolitical crisis in West Asia has begun to cast a long shadow over India’s international aviation sector. International passenger traffic to and from India registered a contraction of 1.2% in the first quarter of 2026, compared to the corresponding period last year.

The statistics highlighted a worrying structural shift in market share, with Indian domestic carriers taking a 10% hit on their international networks while foreign airlines gained 6% more passengers.

According to the latest quarterly international traffic data released by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) for January to March 2026, the total number of passengers flying in and out of India was 1.91 crore, down from 1.93 crore last year.

The data shows that while the first two months of this year witnessed an expected increase, traffic in March witnessed a sudden drop of 17% after the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran started on February 28.

Impact on Gulf routes

Notably, a large share of India’s international passengers travel to Middle Eastern countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. As the war in West Asia directly impacted these Gulf countries, air traffic dropped significantly in March, dragging down the quarterly statistics.

The most striking revelation from the DGCA quarterly dataset is the performance disparity between homegrown airlines and their international counterparts.

Indian carriers like Air India, IndiGo, Air India Express, Akasa Air and SpiceJet collectively carried 80.94 lakh passengers in the first three months of 2026, against 89.63 lakh during the same period the previous year, reporting an almost 10% decline.

This sharp contraction can be attributed to major airspace closures, severe flight re-routings around volatile West Asian airspace, and escalating fuel costs.

Foreign carriers gain market share

Among Indian airlines, IndiGo stood out in carrying the largest number of passengers to and from India at 38.26 lakh, against Air India’s 29.12 lakh. Similarly, Air India Express, SpiceJet and Akasa Air carried 12.55 lakh, 2.71 lakh and 2.28 lakh passengers respectively in the first quarter.

Conversely, foreign carriers displayed remarkable resilience, with flyers on foreign airlines increasing by more than 6% during the same three-month period. These airlines carried 1.10 crore passengers to and from India this year, up from 1.03 crore last year.

Notably, the number of international airlines in 2026 also increased by seven compared with last year. Emirates stood out as the largest carrier in the quarter, carrying over 13.39 lakh passengers to and from India.

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Concerns over second quarter

Aviation experts and regulatory assessments indicate that international passenger traffic is expected to decrease significantly in the second quarter, from April to June 2026.

The summer travel surge, which usually yields lucrative profits for airlines, is likely to be severely curtailed if the conflict continues to choke key global flight corridors.

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