Venezuela's 303 Billion Barrels Of Oil Reserves Under Scrutiny As Experts Question Trump's US Oil Deal Claims

Venezuela claims to hold more than 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, the largest in the world, but energy experts have questioned the reliability of the estimate, saying it is based on outdated and inflated government data.

The figure has long been promoted by politicians and investors as evidence of Venezuela’s vast energy potential. It has gained renewed attention after US President Donald Trump announced a sweeping agreement in August that would give Washington control over a portion of the country’s oil reserves.

However, six experts told The Associated Press that Venezuela’s actual proven reserves, referring to oil that can reasonably be extracted under current conditions, could be between 60 billion and 120 billion barrels. That would be roughly one-third of the official estimate at the upper end and would mean Venezuela no longer holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves.

Experts Question Trump’s 65 Billion Barrel Oil Deal

The discrepancy has raised questions about the profitability of the US-Venezuela agreement as both countries seek investment to revive Venezuela’s deteriorating oil industry.

Trump has repeatedly claimed that the US would gain control of more than 65 billion barrels of proven Venezuelan oil reserves, exceeding the entirety of America’s crude oil reserves. He has described the agreement as the biggest oil deal in history, saying it would help replenish US strategic reserves and reduce fuel prices that surged during the Iran war.

But experts believe Washington is gaining access to a combination of nearly depleted and undeveloped oilfields, with potential production far below the administration’s projections.

Some fields lie deep within the Orinoco Belt in central-eastern Venezuela, where difficult terrain and technical challenges have discouraged investment.

“That’s a funny, funny proposal,” said Evanan Romero, a former Venezuelan energy official based in Houston, questioning whether the Trump administration had adequately examined the country’s reserve estimates.

“If the US government called them and asked them to testify to how they did the procedure — well, the whole world will know that that’s a funny number, an absolute lie.”

“We cannot believe the 65 billion. It’s impossible,” Romero added, noting that some companies had abandoned the fields because of operational difficulties.

The White House has not publicly explained how it calculated the 65 billion barrel figure and did not answer questions from AP. However, spokesperson Taylor Rogers defended the agreement.

“This historic deal marks a major step toward stabilising Venezuela’s economy after years of hyperinflation and almost no new investment, while more than doubling the United States’ oil reserves,” Rogers said.

Luisa Palacios, a former Citgo chair and now an energy researcher at Columbia University, suggested that the administration’s estimate might represent oil underground rather than proven recoverable reserves.

Under that interpretation, she estimated that only around 5% of the 65 billion barrels, or approximately 3.2 billion barrels, might qualify as proven reserves.

“Is that 65 billion barrels assuming a 20% recovery rate?” Palacios asked. “That’s the thing that I cannot say. And so that’s why there are questions around it.”

Francisco Monaldi, a Venezuelan oil expert at Rice University, estimated that only 10 billion to 15 billion barrels could be classified as proven reserves in the short term.

According to officials from both countries, the oil covered by the agreement is spread across 17 fields controlled by a joint venture between the US and Venezuela-based North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP).

Unlike publicly traded oil companies, which must report proven reserves under strict US Securities and Exchange Commission rules, NABEP is not publicly listed.

How Venezuela’s 303 Billion Barrel Claim Emerged

Venezuela’s disputed reserve estimates date back to the mid-2000s, when then-President Hugo Chavez launched an extensive assessment of oil deposits in the Orinoco Belt amid rising global crude prices and substantial government spending.

The multiyear exercise involved state-owned companies from Brazil, Iran, China, Spain and other countries, along with US-based consultancy Ryder Scott.

However, the Venezuelan government never released detailed explanations supporting its conclusions, prompting questions about the methodology.

“Those were funny numbers that were cooked by Hugo Chavez and his minister of energy at that time,” Romero said.

Monaldi agreed, saying, “They are inflated by a factor of nearly three.”

Ryder Scott estimated that the Orinoco Belt contained more than one trillion barrels of oil underground but did not calculate how much qualified as proven reserves, which require a 90% probability of recovery.

Chavez’s government subsequently made its own calculations, but Ryder Scott refused to endorse the resulting estimate and eventually withdrew from the exercise. The company did not respond to AP’s request for comment.

In its 2011 annual report, state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) reported an extraordinary increase of 82 billion barrels in proven reserves, bringing the total to nearly 300 billion barrels.

The company attributed the increase to “adjustments due to the revision of recovery” rates but provided no further explanation. Its operations, financial records and production statistics have remained largely opaque.

The revised figures propelled Venezuela past Saudi Arabia to become the world’s largest holder of proven oil reserves in the annual rankings of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Difficult Extraction And Political Instability Deter Investors

Energy specialists estimate that Venezuela’s realistic oil recovery rate is around 10% overall, falling to between 5% and 8% in the Orinoco Belt.

The region has become an investment priority for acting President Delcy Rodríguez and the White House, but its heavy crude presents substantial extraction challenges.

Unlike conventional crude, the thick oil does not flow easily into wells. Advanced extraction technology could improve recovery rates, but deploying it would require significant investment.

Companies remain cautious because of Venezuela’s history of broken contracts, political uncertainty and continuing instability.

Rodríguez’s term expired in July, and no elections have been scheduled.

Despite questions about the methodology, OPEC has continued to accept Venezuela’s official reserve estimates since 2011.

Its 2026 report places Venezuela at the top with 303.7 billion barrels of proven reserves, followed by Saudi Arabia with 267 billion barrels and Iran with 208 billion barrels.

The organisation, which has 12 member countries and counts Venezuela among its founders, did not respond to AP’s request for comment.

Investors Seek Transparency Over Venezuela’s Oil Wealth

The disputed 300 billion barrel estimate has remained central to Venezuela’s energy narrative despite longstanding scepticism.

Both of Chavez’s successors, the now-deposed Nicolas Maduro and Rodríguez, have repeatedly cited the figure. Opposition leaders, including Nobel laureate Maria Corina Machado, have also referred to it.

Venezuela’s ruling party, which has held power for 27 years, used the reserve estimate to secure multibillion-dollar loans from China and Russia.

Experts believe potential private investors will demand reliable and independently verifiable reserve data before committing substantial funds to Venezuela’s oil sector.

They warn that the government’s lack of transparency continues to undermine confidence in the country’s energy potential.

“Any country that reports a reserve figure that never changes over time — that smells extremely fishy,” Monaldi said.