India Should Avoid Early Trade Concessions To US, Adopt Patient Strategy: SBI Report

India should avoid making early concessions in ongoing trade negotiations with the United States and instead follow a cautious, patient approach, according to an SBI Ecowrap research report released on Friday.

The report said the US administration is relying on strategic uncertainty and linking multiple issues together to strengthen its negotiating position.

According to SBI Research, Washington is using ambiguity as a bargaining tool not only in trade discussions but also across areas such as NATO, Iran, China and Greenland.

Using a game theory perspective, the report described the US approach as maintaining incomplete information about its negotiating position to maximise leverage.

SBI Research said India holds a unique position in the global strategic landscape compared with other major partners of the US.

While NATO allies depend heavily on American security commitments and China derives influence from manufacturing strength, critical minerals and global supply chains, India brings different strategic advantages.

These include its large consumer market, technology workforce, pharmaceutical capabilities, defence procurement potential, energy diversification options, overseas Indian community influence and expanding role in the Indo-Pacific region.

Given these advantages, the report suggested that India should not feel pressured to quickly accept US demands. Instead, it recommended allowing negotiations to progress while Washington’s own economic and geopolitical considerations shape its final position.

The report said India’s strategy should focus on maintaining dialogue, avoiding public confrontation, offering limited and reversible proposals and waiting for US policy positions to face domestic economic pressures and strategic challenges.

“India’s best strategy... is to wear down the opening position, not the relationship,” SBI Research said, adding that India should test US resolve even if some short-term costs arise.

The report noted that the US is increasingly combining trade, defence, security, strategic resources and diplomacy into a single negotiating framework rather than addressing each issue separately.

It said Washington often announces strong policy positions, observes market and government responses and then modifies its approach to secure better negotiating outcomes.

SBI Research cited NATO as an example, where the US has increasingly linked defence commitments with broader strategic expectations from allies.

However, the report cautioned that repeated dependence on uncertainty could eventually affect Washington’s credibility among partners, investors and global markets.

It concluded that India should preserve its bilateral relationship with the US while leveraging its growing economic and strategic importance to achieve a more favourable trade agreement.