Sooner, Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping meet, the better

No sensible person who understands existing geopolitical realities will frown upon the Chinese initiative to break the ice by sending Foreign Minister Wang Yi to India. Hostilities between the two powerful neighbours will do no good to either of them; India is probably more vulnerable given the growing nexus between China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. The Narendra Modi government cannot be faulted for agreeing to host the representative from the hostile neighbour which had brazenly violated the decades-old understanding of not disturbing border tranquility by its actions in Doklam, Ladakh, and Arunachal Pradesh. Dialogue is essential to resolve differences and prevent escalation of conflict and communication must be done at the political level, instead of letting military commanders deal with complex issues. Reports suggest India articulated its concerns firmly, telling the Chinese leader that normal relations were not possible in the wake of its aggressive actions on the border. There was no other option before the Government.

But that cannot absolve the Modi Government of all wrong-doing in the context of handling China which cannot be taken at face value. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s simplistic understanding of Chinese authorities, particularly President Xi Jinping, betrayed a failure in decoding the Chinese mystique. He not only laid undue emphasis on his rapport with Jinping, his refusal to make an objective and dispassionate assessment of China’s global machinations demonstrated a poor understanding of contemporary international realities. China with its economic and military might has grown bigger than Modi anticipated, as his peculiarly friendly overtures indicated. China has been vying with the United States for supremacy as a global power; it ruthlessly uses every opportunity to extract lucrative bargains for itself, exploits every crisis to consolidate its gains. By its tactful handling of the Ukraine crisis, China has blackmailed the Americans into extracting concessions on the trade front while undermining NATO’s political clout at the same time. The complexities of Chinese games required more caution and maturity than the Modi regime demonstrated.

The less said the better about the initial responses to the Ladakh crisis, with the Prime Minister himself making avoidable statements. Though India has firmed up its position now, there is the need to articulate concerns in clearer terms, apart from resorting to actions that hurt China. The assertion that business as usual is not possible after the hostile Chinese actions mean little if the trade between the two continue to rise. The farce of banning a few Chinese apps can only fool the blind followers, without yielding any strategic advantages. India did well to reject Wang Yi’s recent blabbering on Kashmir. It was also wise to reject his plea for a meeting with the Prime Minister. Though this firmness came a little late, it has to be backed by strategic thinking and smart economic moves that can trigger real concerns in Beijing. China will pretend to project relations as normal after seizing military advantages and it is up to India to compel them to mend its ways. Nobody advocates any military misadventure but a big country like India has several avenues to arm-twist the bullying neighbour. The Chinese should be told bluntly that the world has changed and its mischief to redraw boundaries will not be tolerated. Vague sermons of expansionism will not impact a superpower that is determined to show India its place in the global comity. New Delhi, after all, cannot ignore China’s decision to sell advanced fighter jets to Pakistan and the patronage of the Taliban. It is too early to predict the contours of the new world order after the Ukraine war. Too many imponderables are involved, including Vladimir Putin’s own future. India has to watch carefully and choose its options with foresight. The wiser course is to go slow, avoiding the risk of playing the American or Russian game. Because the China factor is interwoven in every equation. China will use this opportunity to strengthen itself instead of playing second fiddle to Russia. It may be trying to normalize relations with India in this changed international scenario. India has to show restraint and extreme caution. With its economic situation not being very sound at present, the focus should be to reposition New Delhi as a neutral player. That’s like a revival of the non-aligned spirit. This is not to suggest that communication channels should be snapped. Dialogue must continue and climax into a summit at the highest level, between Modi and Xi, with the sole objective of restoring the status quo ante. Sooner, the better.