United Nations:
Taliban insurgents show no sign of reducing the level of violence in Afghanistan to facilitate peace negotiations with the government, and appear to be trying to strengthen their military position as leverage, with the "unprecedented violence" of 2020 carrying into 2021, UN experts said in a new report circulated Friday.
The panel of experts said the Taliban are reported to be responsible for the great majority of assassinations that have become a feature of the violence in Afghanistan, targeting government officials, women, human rights defenders and journalists among others.
These attacks "appear to be undertaken with the objective of weakening the capacity of the government and intimidating civil society,"it said.
In the 22-page report to the U.N. Security Council, the panel said the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces by Sept. 11, the anniversary of the 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States, "will challenge Afghan forces by limiting aerial operations with fewer drones and radar and surveillance capabilities, less logistical support and artillery, as well as a disruption in training." The Taliban were ousted from power in Afghanistan in 2001 by a US-led coalition for harboring Osama bin Laden, the architect of the Sept 11 attacks.
A peace deal that Washington brokered with the Taliban and signed in February 2020 was aimed at bringing American troops home and ending more than four decades of relentless wars following the 1979 Afghan invasion by forces from the former Soviet Union.
Negotiations between the Taliban and Afghan representatives began last September in Doha, Qatar and continued earlier this year. But the Taliban announced on April 13 -- a day before President Joe Biden's announcement that all US troops would leave by Sept 11 -- that it would not take part in any conference intended to decide the future of Afghanistan until all foreign troops were gone.
The UN experts, who monitor sanctions against the Taliban, predicted more violence in the run-up to their departure.
"Taliban rhetoric and reports of active Taliban preparations for the spring fighting season indicate the group is likely to increase military operations for 2021, whether or not a spring offensive is announced," they said.
The experts also questioned how Afghan forces would fare without coalition support.
"Afghan forces have successfully reversed many Taliban gains with the assistance of international coalition close air support, but have done so with heavy casualty rates," they said.
"It remains to be seen how Afghan forces will perform without it." The panel of experts painted a grim picture of the violence in Afghanistan, which had been expected to decrease in 2020 but instead soared to the highest level ever recorded by the United Nations in the country - more than 25,000 incidents, a 10% increase over 2019.
Violence surged as the Doha talks began, the experts said, and incident rates in the usually calmer winter were higher than those in the spring or summer of 2020.
"Unprecedented violence over the winter carried into 2021, with 7,177 security incidents recorded countrywide between Jan. 1 and March 31, representing a 61 percent increase over the same period in 2020," they said.
The panel said the number of Taliban fighters remains robust, with estimates ranging from about 58,000 to 100,000.
The panel said many sources its members spoke to - which include governments - believe the Taliban used the 2020 fighting season "to further strengthen strangleholds around several provincial capitals, seeking to shape future military operations when levels of departing foreign troops are no longer able to respond." While no one claimed responsibility for most assassinations, the experts said it is widely believed that approximately 85 percent of them were carried out by the Taliban. The U.N. recorded an increase in reported assassinations from 780 in 2019 to 996 in 2020, the report said.
The report comes amid US troops withdrawal from Afghanistan and plan to leave completely by September 11.
As part of last year's agreement between the preceding Trump administration and the Taliban, the group promised to instruct its members "not to cooperate with groups or individuals", reported Tolo News.
"While the Doha agreement has set some expectations for a break in the longstanding relationship between the Taliban and Al Qaeda, the publicly available text of the agreement does not define expectations, and its annexes remain secret," the report said.
According to UN member state information, "Al Qaeda is resident in at least 15 Afghan provinces, primarily in the east, southern and south-eastern regions, and are led by Al-Qaeda's Jabhat-al-Nasr wing under the direction of Sheikh Mahmood," reported Tolo News.
"19 Members of the group have been relocated to more remote areas by the Taliban to avoid potential exposure and targeting," it said.
According to UN member states report, "Al-Qaeda maintains contact with the Taliban but has minimized overt communications with Taliban leadership in an effort to 'lay low' and not jeopardize the Taliban's diplomatic position vis-a-vis the Doha agreement." The report said that "Member States reported that a significant part of Al Qaeda leadership remains based in the border region of Afghanistan and Pakistan, where the core is joined by and works closely with Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent." "Al Qaeda's own strategy in the near term is assessed as maintaining its traditional safe haven in Afghanistan for the Al Qaeda core leadership, the Monitoring Team takes note of assessments that have suggested a longer-term Al Qaida core strategy of strategic patience for a period of time before it would seek to plan attacks against international targets again. This scenario is untested against stated Taliban commitments to prohibit such activities," the report stated.
"Although ... Member States assess that formal communication between senior Al Qaida and Taliban officials is currently infrequent, one Member State reported that there is regular communication between the Taliban and Al-Qaeda on issues related to the peace process," the report said.
Amid foreign troop withdrawal, the violence in Afghanistan is at its highest level in two decades.
According to the UN report, 2020 was the "most violent year ever recorded by the United Nations in Afghanistan." Security incidents have risen over 60 per cent in the first three months of 2021 compared to the same period in 2020, the report said.
