The Sudanese army and powerful paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) clashed on Saturday. This is part of a larger power struggle that has been ongoing in Sudan for the past few years.
Background: Who has been in charge in Sudan?
Sudan has been transitioning towards democracy since April 2019, when military generals removed President Omar al-Bashir following a popular uprising.
Al-Bashir had been in power for almost 30 years but was shunned by the West.
Under an August 2019 agreement, the military agreed to share power with civilians ahead of elections. However, a coup in October 2021 halted this arrangement, leading to new pro-democracy rallies.
Power dynamics: Where does the balance of power lie?
The military has been a dominant force in Sudan since its independence in 1956. During the 2019-2021 power-sharing arrangement, distrust between the military and civilian parties was deep. The civilian side drew legitimacy from a resilient protest movement and support from parts of the international community.
Meanwhile, the military had backing from rebel factions that benefitted from a 2020 peace deal and from veterans of al-Bashir’s government who returned to the civil service following the coup.
Faultlines: What are the key issues causing tension?
A central cause of tension since the uprising is a civilian demand to gain oversight of the military and to see the integration of the powerful RSF into the regular army. Civilians have also called for the handover of lucrative military holdings in agriculture, trade, and other industries, which are a crucial source of power for the army.
Another point of contention is the pursuit of justice over allegations of war crimes by the military and its allies in the conflict in Darfur from 2003. The International Criminal Court (ICC) is seeking trials for al-Bashir and other Sudanese suspects. Justice is also being sought over the killings of pro-democracy protesters on June 3, 2019, in which military forces are implicated.
Activists and civilian groups have been angered by delays to an official investigation.
In addition, they want justice for at least 125 people killed by security forces in protests since the coup.
Economy: How is the economy affecting the situation?
A worsening economic crisis was a key trigger for al-Bashir’s downfall.
The 2019-2021 transitional government implemented abrupt reforms monitored by the International Monetary Fund in a successful bid for debt relief and to attract foreign financing.
However, billions of dollars in international support and debt relief were frozen after the 2021 coup, halting development projects, straining the national budget, and worsening an already dire humanitarian situation.
Regional picture: What is happening in Sudan’s neighborhood?
Sudan is volatile, bordering the Red Sea, the Sahel, and the Horn of Africa.
Its strategic location and agricultural wealth have attracted regional power plays, complicating the chances of a successful transition. Several of Sudan’s neighbours, including Ethiopia, Chad, and South Sudan, have been affected by political upheavals and conflict.
Sudan’s relationship with Ethiopia in particular has been strained over disputed farmland along their border, the conflict in the Tigray region that drove tens of thousands of refugees into Sudan, and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
Egypt, which has deep historical ties with Sudan and a close relationship with its military, has pursued an alternative track with groups that supported the coup.
