Bangladesh's ex-prime minister Sheikh Hasina's dramatic escape from the country has sent shockwaves through South Asian politics. The longest-serving female prime minister in the world resigned just when the entire country was boiling with fierce protests which initially sought abolishment of quotas in government jobs. At the time of publishing of this story at least, Sheikh Hasina was in New Delhi. India was her first destination after escape from her own country. So what are the options before Sheikh Hasina?
Option 1: Continuing to stay in India
Sheikh Hasina was for decades considered sympathetic towards India. Her father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, called father of the nation of Bangladesh, was supported by India in the run-up to 1971 war with Pakistan and even later. The importance Sheikh Hasina accords to India is evident in her choice of first destination after escaping dangers in her own country.
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India would be happy to grant her space, given the warm ties. But this would possibly mean antagonizing Khaleda Zia, who looks set for a political comeback. Zia, the nemesis of Sheikh Hasina, is widely perceived to be anti-India and at least till the initial picture becomes clear, India may not want to make an overt political statement by granting asylum to Hasina.
But if India decides to take a stand and hosts Hasina, the latter would definitely be in safe hands as India is capable of providing adequate security to the former Bangladesh premier.
Option 2: Taking political asylum in the UK
In the immediate aftermath of her escape from Bangladesh, it was being widely reported that Hasina would just make a brief stop in India before heading to UK for political asylum. However, by August 6 afternoon she was awaiting clearance from the UK.
UK has previously given political asylum to leaders, political agents and even spies from many countries. In past UK has given asylum to former Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif, pro-democracy lawmakers from Hong Kong, Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko and more people.
Although the UK is likely to offer protection to Hasina in the event it offers her a political asylum, it must be held in mind that elements from Bangladeshi opposition have a considerable presence in UK.
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we do have examples of leaders making a successful political comeback in their own countries following political asylum in the UK (Nawaz Sharif). But we also have instances of foreign regimes carrying out assassinations of their opponents inside the UK (Alexander Litvinenko).
Option 3: Return to Bangladesh
Sheikh Hasina is free to return to Bangladesh as she hasn't faced an official expulsion of any sort. But her return to her home country appears unlikely at the moment given the volatile situation. The factors which led to her escape may still be present besides difficulties like the ongoing mass protests and violence.
The protesters had demanded ouster of Sheikh Hasina as a precondition. Any step towards a return to Bangladesh may enrage those for whom her escape from the country marked a victory.
Besides, Bangladesh president has already ordered release of Khaleda Zia. If Hasina returns so soon, the political situation may become complex with her having lost the popular support.
