16:00 Hrs: Latest After the Closing Bell

Nifty (-48, 10832): It was a roller coaster day.

In early action, the benchmark Nifty witnessed a gap down start — sank below 10,750 mark, recovered and bounced back at midday — slightly above the dotted lines, and then finally ended the day down in red at 10,832.

Net-net, we would say, we started the day on the wrong foot, but came back to life. Honestly speaking, this kind of whiplash are typical especially after reports that IAF jets struck terror camps in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK).

Interestingly, Asia too was seen bucking a positive overnight trend at Wall Street on no new reports of major progress in ongoing U.S.-China trade talks. This also snapped enthusiasm in mainland China that had soared on Monday.

Europe was also in red on the news that U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has delayed a parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal. We suspect, the roller coaster ride on Dalal Street to resume on Wednesday.

Amidst these myriad of headwinds, establishing long positions only above Nifty 10921 mark should be the preferred strategy.

Now before we sign off for the day, let’s look at major instruments.

4.00 PM GLOBAL UPDATE:

DOW Futures (-84, 26015)
NASDAQ Futures (-26, 7100)
DAX (-29, 11477)
FTSE (-76, 7108)

OIL (+0.07, $55.53)
GOLD (-1, $1328)
DOLLAR INDEX (-0.11, 96.31)
COPPER (+4, 6489)

How Asia fared today:

HANG SENG (-187, 28772)
NIKKEI (-79, 21449)
SHANGHAI (-20, 2942)

Nifty (-45, 10835)
Sensex (-240, 35974)
Bank Nifty (-206, 26953)
SGX NIFTY (-0, 10823)
USD/INR (+0.06, 71.05)

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15:15 Hrs: Where’s the clever money going at 3.15 PM?

Nifty (-48, 10831): Dalal Street did stumble at open, and then value buying and bargain hunting drives Nifty near the dotted lines and now towards the fag end Nifty slips in red.

Stocks seen struggling amidst weak market breadth and on backdrop of myriad of headwinds. The benchmark Nifty needs to reclaim its 200 DMA at 10861. Above 10861 on closing basis, Nifty’s next hurdles are at 10921.

Establishing long positions only above 10921 mark should be the preferred strategy.

Probable BTST/STBT trades:

Bullish looking BTST stocks: DIVIS LAB, IGL, PIDILITE, ASIAN PAINTS, PVR, MARUTI, MANAPURAM, BAJAJ FINSERV, BAJAJ FINANCE, BOSCH, NIIT TECH, MUTHOOT FINANCE, YES BANK, BEML, MINDTREE

Negative looking STBT stocks: HPCL, RELIANCE INDUSTROES, TVS MOTORS, ENGINEERS INDIA.

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14:00 Hrs: Life at Dalal Street after Europe’s Opening Bell

Nifty (-34, 10846): Caution is the watchword.

Asian stock markets struggled on Tuesday, bucking a positive overnight trend at Wall Street on no new reports of major progress in ongoing U.S.-China trade talks. This also sapped enthusiasm in mainland China which had soared on Monday.

Europe was also in red on the news U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has delayed a parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un traveled to Vietnam for their second summit.

At the time of writing, the benchmark Nifty was off day’s low, though continue to be in the red over border anxiety and amidst mounting tensions with Pakistan.

Technically, Nifty was seen attempting to reclaim its 200-DMA at 10,861. Sensex was a tad above psychological 36,000 mark. Aggressive buying advised only above Nifty 10921 mark.

DAX (-40, 11465)
FTSE (+-79, 7104)

DOW Futures (-77, 26022)
NASDAQ Futures (-31, 7095)

HANG SENG (-187, 28772)
NIKKEI (-79, 21449)
SHANGHAI (-20, 2941)

Nifty (-34, 10846)
Sensex (-174, 36040)
Bank Nifty (-169, 26990)

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13:30 Hrs: Dalal Street’s Top Stories at Midday

(Nifty 10,851, Down 30 points): It’s a big bad volatile world out there!

• Benchmark indices are off day’s low, though continue to be in the red over border anxiety. Early short trades recovering on buys on dips.

Crude oil prices fall 3%, record intraday fall on Trump’s comments about high crude prices globally.

Nifty hovering near its 200DMA at 10861. Major hurdle zone continues to be 10921-10925.

Advance to decline ratio is tilted towards losers at 19:31 for Gainers: Losers.

• At the time of writing, all Benchmark stock indices at US and Europe are red, following widespread losses in Asian stock markets. Asian markets largely declined in early trading Tuesday, as President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un traveled to Vietnam for their second summit.

• No new reports of major progress in ongoing U.S.-China trade talks sapped enthusiasm that sent stocks in mainland China soaring on Monday.

• Among sectoral indices, almost all the indices are waving red signal except Media and Auto which are marginally higher by 0.40% and 0.20% respectively. Highest bruised sectors are Nifty Realty (-1.69%) Nifty PSU Banks (-1.68%) and Nifty Financial Services (-1%).

• The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market is negative.

• The NSE 150 Mid-Cap index is down 0.59% at 5,909. The NSE Small-Cap 100 index is down 0.90% at 5,869.

• INDIA VIX index representing volatility has drastically shot up to 16.84 (+9.70%), indicating high volatility.

• Stocks on the Positive side: TATAMOTORS at 181 (+3.02%), ULTRACEMCO at 3794.10 (+2.09%), TCS at 2,012.65 (+1.39%).

• Souring the mood: NTPC at 137.20 (-2.24%), IBULHSGFIN at 664.80 (-2.06%) & VEDL at 168.50 (-1.61%).

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10:00 Hrs: Pursue Opportunities in commodities

MCX GOLD, MCX SILVER and MCX CRUDE-OIL to witness buying on back of strength in USD/INR.

Gold (+0.34%, 1332): Positive bias as long as 1305 support is held. Hurdles now seen at 1351. Interweek Strategy: Buy between 1321-1325 zone, targeting 1351 and then at 1359-1368 zone with stop below 1303.

MCX Gold (-0.18%, 33530). Interweek strategy: Buy on dips between 33101-33201 zone, targeting 33821 and then at 34300 and then finally at 34751-35001 zone with stop at 32701.

Silver (-0.36%, 15.85): Hurdles now seen at 16.09. Confirmation of major strength only above 16.75. Interweek Strategy: Buy at CMP, targeting 16.09 zone and then at 16.71-16.75 zone with stop below 15.45.
MCX Silver (+0.07%, 40304): Interweek strategy: Buy on dips between 39871-39901, targeting 41000 mark and then aggressive targets at 41751-41951 zone with stop at 39101.

Crude Oil (+0.27%, 55.15). Positive bias to continue. Key support now at 53.50 zone. Interweek strategy: Establish buy positions between 53-55 zone, targeting, 57.50 and then finally at 59-61 zone with strict stop at 52.75.

MCX Crude Oil (+0.97%, 3993). Confirmation of strength only above 4127. Interweek strategy: Buy between 3825-3851 zone, targeting 4127 mark and then aggressive targets at 4289-4315 zone with stop at 3711.

Copper (-0.12%, 6462): Progress in U.S-China trade truce key positive catalyst.
MCX Copper (-0.11%, 461): Interweek strategy: Establish buy positions between 451-455 zone, targeting 475 mark and then aggressive targets at 485-489 zone with stop at 441.

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09:45 Hrs: Nifty’s Crucial Levels

Nifty’s (-103, 10777): Dalal Street witnesses panic, nervousness and anxiety.

Nifty’s major support at 10751. Below 10751, the next crucial support at 10699. The bulls’ case crumbles only below 10583 mark.

BUYING ADVISED ONLY ABOVE 10921 MARK.

What Technical Tells Us On Nifty:

Nifty’s KEY SUPPORTS: 10751/10699/10583.
Nifty’s KEY HURDLE: 10861/10921.

Nifty’s INTRADAY RANGE: 10751-10821.
Nifty’s OUTLOOK FOR THE DAY: Volatile. Weak below 10751.

The Indian rupee weakens in the early action this Tuesday. It has opened lower by 26 paise at 71.25 per dollar.

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09:30 Hrs: Make Informed Decisions

(Nifty: -77,  10,803): In early action, the Nifty Train seems to be running without a motorman. Sharp downward opening seen in early trade, however the same was bought in. While the Nifty Train is settling, the same went down hill.

Oops!! Wait, is that a Roller Coaster ride for today?

The panic seen after IAF strikes in PoK: IAF jets reportedly struck terror camps in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK). As per reports, around 200-300 casualties reported on Pak side.

Nifty’s major hurdles for the day will be at 10921 mark. BUYING ADVISED ONLY ABOVE 10921 MARK.

Nifty’s support now seen at 10751 and then at 10699 mark.

Amongst stocks on positive side are: BAJAJ FINSERVE (+1.40%, 6422) INFRATEL (+1.20%, 307.60) TCS (+0.88%, 177)

On the negative side are: Yes Bank (-3.03%, 222) HEROMOTO CORP (-2.36%) VEDL (-2.77%, 166) JSW Steel (-2.55%, 280).

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09:00 Hrs: What Caught our Eye at 9 AM?

The global indices are trending lower!

DOW FUTURES (-82, 26014)
NASDAQ FUTURES (-39, 7086)
SGX NIFTY (-68, 10825)
NIKKEI (-43, 21485)
HANG SENG (-124, 28835)
SHANGHAI (+9, 2970).

STOCKS TO WATCH:

BULLISH STOCKS: HDFC, SRF, BAJAJ FINANCE, BAJAJ FINSERV, BEML, HDFC BANK, YES BANK, HCL TECH, MUTHOOT FINANCE, BOSCH, NIIT TECH, MINDTREE, UPL.

BEARISH STOCKS: JUBILANT FOODS, TVS MOTORS, ENGINEERS INDIA.

All about stocks (F&O Trades):

HDFC BANK (2125): Buy between 2101-2111 zone, targeting 2167/2221 zone. Stop 2073.
BEML (825); Buy between 809-813 zone, targets at 837.50/869. Stop 803.
RAMCO CEMENTS (645): Buy between 630-635 zone, targets at 668.50/689. Stop 621.

All about stocks (Cash Trades):

BUY SUNDRAM FINANCE (CMP 1496) between 1475-1481 zone. Targets 1546 and then at 1621. Stop 1399.

BUY JUBILANT FOODS between 745-760 zone. Targets at 795 and then at 851. Stop 705.

BUY DELTA CORP at CMP 240. Targets at 255-275 zone and then at 289. Stop 218.

Option Call: SELL BANK NIFTY 28th FEBRUARY PE strike price 26900 between 55-61 zone. Maximum Profit: Rs. 1,100/-. Loss: Unlimited. Stop: Exit Put option if Bank Nifty moves below 27035. (Bank Nifty February Futures CMP 27162).

SHOW ME THE MONEY: BUY BEML (CMP 825) Momentum oscillators continue to be in buy mode. Key intraday support at 803. Interweek Strategy: Buy between 807-811 zone, targeting 837.50 zone and then at 865-869 zone with stop below 803.

Bulls Vs. Bears: Time to Pick a Side!!

Nifty will aim higher highs.

Preferred trade on Nifty (10880): Buy between 10821-10839 zone, targeting 10921 and then at 11001. Stop below 10801.

Preferred trade on Bank Nifty (27159): Buy between 26901-27000 zone, targeting 27501 and then at 27751. Stop below 26701.

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08:00 Hrs: Calculus Derivatives Corner

Markets Update: February 26, 2019 – Today’s action in the Markets

Market Summary:

• Nifty 28th February Futures ended Monday’s session at a premium of +07 against +18.

• The Put- Call Open Interest Ratio was at 1.22 for Nifty whereas it was 1.32 for Bank Nifty.

• The Put-Call Volume Ratio was at 1.04 for the Nifty and 0.89 for Bank Nifty.

• For Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 11000 Strike Price, followed by 11100 Strike Price for 28th February Series. Short covering was seen at strike prices 10600-10800.

• Maximum Put Open Interest (OI) was seen at strike price 10700 followed by 10800 strike price for 28th February series. Short buildup was seen at strike prices 10750-10950.

• For Bank Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 27500 Strike Price and Maximum Put Open Interest stands at 27000 Strike Price.

• As per Monday’s Provisional Data available on the NSE, FII’s bought shares worth Rs. 2134.35 crores in the Indian Equity Market. DIIs on the other hand, sold shares worth Rs. 1746.40 crores in the Indian Equity market.

• Long Buildup: YES BANK, ICICI BANK, TATA MOTORS, UPL, IOC.

• *Short Buildup: AURO PHARMA, ADANI PORTS, DHFL.

• Short Covering: ITC, INFY, HDFC, GRASIM, M&M.

• Long Unwinding: MCDOWELL, VOLTAS, STAR.

• Stocks banned in F&O segment for today: ADANI ENT, ADANI POWER, ALBK, IDBI, JETAIRWAYS, RPOWER.

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07:30 Hrs: Audio Podcast

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07:00 Hrs: Know What Matters at Dalal Street at 7 AM!!

Markets Update: February 26, 2019 – Today’s action in the Markets

This Tuesday morning, media reports are suggesting that, Trump told a gathering of state governors on Monday that there would be soon be a “signing ceremony” for the trade deal, supporting widespread perceptions that the president is eager to reach a deal in the coming weeks.

Amidst this backdrop, the needle is likely to be on the positive side for our stock markets too

7 AM GLOBAL UPDATE:

DOW (+60, 26092)
NASDAQ (+27, 7554)
SGX NIFTY (+13, 10906)
NIKKEI (+31, 21560)
HANG SENG (+12, 28971)
BOVESPA (-646, 97240)

OIL (+0.05, $55.53)
GOLD (+1, $1330)

SUCCESSFUL INVESTING IS ANTICIPATING THE TRENDS OF:

Global: Positive.
FII: Positive.
DII: Positive.
F&O: Positive.
‪Sentiment: Positive.

NIFTY’s CRUCIAL LEVELS:

Nifty’s CURRENT MARKET PRICE: 10,880.

Nifty’s SUPPORT:
Intraday: 10839/10727.
Medium Term: 10,583/10,333.
Long Term: 9,951.

Nifty’s RESISTANCE:
Intraday: 10925/11001.
Medium Term: 11,125/11,221.
Long Term: 11,751.

Nifty’s RANGE:
Intraday: 10,841-10961.
Medium Term: 10,501-11,125.
Long Term: 9950-11,725.

Nifty’s OUTLOOK
Intraday: Positive.
Medium Term: Neutral.
Long Term: Positive.

Our call of the day suggests Nifty will power higher, move far and most importantly too fast. There will be momentum on the buy side and broader participation quite likely.

Long story short: Short covering + value buying should take Nifty towards 11001 mark.

Our chart of the day suggests establishing long positions in stocks like HDFC BANK, RAMCO CEMENT & BEML with interweek perspective.

IMPORTANT THEMES FOR THE DAY:

The five key positive triggers:

1. President Donald Trump statement that U.S will not raise tariffs on Chinese goods.
2. Oil Falls after Trump tweets that prices are too high and called on OPEC to “relax and take it easy.”
3. FIIs in buying spree.
4. Buoyant global cues.
5. Positive inklings as Nifty above 200 DMA.

Disclaimer: LotusFunds subscribers/clients may have positions in the stocks recommended in this note. Please note that the actual subscribers may receive additional information in real time not available to the viewers of this note.

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