Representational Pic
Representational Pic

16:00 Hrs: Latest After the Closing Bell

Nifty (+131, 10735): Bulls came to life at Dalal Street snapping 8-day losing streak. The big question: Can the bulls keep it up?

We suspect, bulls will aim to keep optimism alive and shake off the sour news on the border tension which has been gripping our stock markets since last Thursday on wake of terrorist attack in Pulwama, Kashmir.
Nifty should move towards 10809 mark in near term brushing aside any negative news as an aberration. The said modest relief rally has a good chance to find decent buyers as short covering and bargain hunting could be the theme for tomorrow’s trade.
All the more reason to pay attention to talks between U.S and Chinese negotiators that are aimed at ending a trade war between the world’s largest economies.
Technically speaking and judging by today’s price action at Dalal Street, the benchmark Nifty needs to close above 10809 mark to fuel further optimism. Nifty’s Jan 2019 lows at 10,583 should act as crucial support
Now before we sign off for the day, let’s look at major instruments.

4.00 PM GLOBAL UPDATE:

DOW Futures (-38, 25845)
NASDAQ Futures (-3, 7065)
DAX (-51,  11271)
FTSE (-24, 7217)
OIL (-0.21, $55.88)
GOLD (+3, $1348)
DOLLAR INDEX (+0.03, 96.56)
COPPER (+1, 6333)

How Asia fared today:

HANG SENG (+286, 28514)
NIKKEI (+129, 21431)
SHANGHAI (+6,  2761)
Nifty (+131, 10735)
Sensex (+404, 35756)
Bank Nifty (+271, 26955)
SGX NIFTY (+0, 10767)
USD/INR (-0.23, 71.11)

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15:00 Hrs: Where’s the clever money going at 3 PM?

Nifty (+73, 10677): Market ripe for a modest relief rally.

All bad things come to an end and the 8-days consecutive drop at Dalal Street could be ending anytime soon. Yes, there’s a good chance that the market will continue rising till tomorrow’s trade.

Confirmation of strength above Nifty 10801 mark. At the time of writing, all the sectoral indices were seen trading in green.

Meanwhile, the price of crude oil has risen to $56.05, its highest level in three months. Gold prices have hit a 10-month high.

Probable BTST/STBT trades:

Bullish looking BTST stocks: BATA, YES BANK

Negative looking STBT stocks: RELIANCE CAPITAL, TVS MOTORS, ENGINEERS INDIA.

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14:30 Hrs: Life at Dalal Street after Europe’s Opening Bell

(Nifty 10665, +60 points): Nifty ticks higher; set to snap 8-day losing streak.

Dalal Street trades broadly higher in the backdrop of modestly high finish on Wall Street in Wednesday’s trade and strong Asia in today’s trade. Trade-talk euphoria is seen as key positive catalyst helping drive sentiments at worldwide stock markets.

Interestingly, Nikkei rose 0.3% despite news that Japan’s exports sank 8.4% in January from a year earlier, far more than forecast.

Investors are keeping a close eye on talks between U.S and Chinese negotiators in Washington that are aimed at ending a trade war between the world’s largest economies.

News from the border, the U.S-China trade front and the Federal Reserve minutes, due on Wednesday, will help decide whether Dalal Street can rebound from current oversold conditions. Please note, from here, the confidence will be knocked only if Nifty slips below 10583 mark.

DAX (+58, 11368)
FTSE (+31, 7211)

DOW Futures (-3, 25881)
NASDAQ Futures (+5, 7073)

HANG SENG (+286, 28514)
NIKKEI (+129, 21431)
SHANGHAI (+5, 2761)

Nifty (+53, 10657)
Sensex (+159, 35511)
Bank Nifty (+152, 26837)

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12:45 Hrs: Dalal Street’s Top Stories at Midday

(Nifty 10677, UP 77 points): Dalal Street continues to hold on to the gap up opening, with a plateau like formation still looking strong.

Big news coming in Supreme Court holding Anil Ambani guilty of contempt, jail term on cards if Rs 453 crore not paid to Ericsson in 4 weeks. Amidst that backdrop, ADAG stocks taking a fire sale, with RCom shedding close to 6% in the day.

Though bullish bids seem to have returned, but it makes sense to wait for a conformation i.e. Nifty moving above 10809 mark to trigger strong positivity. So until then and at this juncture, a prudent strategy would be to play light and enjoy the swings.

Global markets seen marginally lower as it seems to be a wait and watch strategy. Other Asian peers spreading green smiles across trading desks with benchmark indices rising somewhere around 0.6% to 0.94% for today.

Amongst sectoral indices, almost all the indices are in green with maximum gain visible in NIFTY Metal followed by Nifty PSU Banks with gains of 1.68% and 0.93% respectively.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market is positive unlike previous positive sessions where only the leaders led, leaving laggers in the pit.

NSE Advances 38. NSE declines 12.

The NSE Mid-Cap 150 index is up 0.39% at 5,813. The NSE Small-Cap 100 index is up 0.56% at 5,717.

Volatility Index – INDIA VIX: 17.48 (-5.32%).

Top Gainers are: TATASTEEL at 486 (+3.2%), VEDL at 158 (+3.17%), IBULHSGFIN at 630 (2.62%).

Top Losers are: HINDUNILVR at 1722 (-0.89%), Bajaj Auto at 2764 (-0.86%) and TCS at 1891 (-0.71%).

Q3 RESULTS TO TRICKLE IN: India’s corporate earnings have started to dry up.

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11:00 Hrs: Pursue Opportunities in commodities

Attention squarely on U.S.-China trade talks. Crude-oil trades firm near 3-month highs on U.S.-China trade talk progress, signs of falling crude output from Saudi & OPEC cuts.

Bullions shine.

Gold (+0.07%, 1346): Interweek Strategy: Buy between 1333-1337 zone, targeting 1351-1368 zone and then aggressive targets at 1389 with stop below 1299.

MCX Gold (+0.14%, 33945). Interweek strategy: Buy between 33651-33701 zone, targeting 34200 and then at 34751-35001 zone with stop at 33150.

Silver (+0.23%, 16.003): Interweek Strategy: Buy between 15.75-15.87 zone, targeting 16.15 zone and then at 16.71-16.75 zone with stop below 15.27.

MCX Silver (+0.19%, 40636): Interweek strategy: Buy on dips between 40350-40401 zone, targeting 40721 mark and then aggressive targets at 41400 zone with stop at 40150.

Crude Oil (+0.12%, 56.52). Interweek strategy: Establish buy positions between 53-55 zone, targeting, 57.50 and then finally at 59 zone with strict stop at 52.05.

MCX Crude Oil (+0.15%, 4039). Interweek strategy: Buy between 3901-3925 zone, targeting 4076 mark and then aggressive targets at 4250-4315 zone with stop at 3771.

Copper (-0.36%, 6247): Progress in U.S-China trade truce key positive catalyst.
MCX Copper (+0.20%, 453.40): Interweek strategy: Establish buy positions between 442.50-446 zone, targeting 461 mark and then aggressive targets at 475-481 zone with stop at 434.

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10:00 Hrs: Nifty’s Crucial Levels at 10 AM

Nifty’s (+74, 10678): A strong start seen in Nifty as bulls aim to shake off yesterday’s negativity.

Nifty’s hurdles seen at 10725 and then next at 10809 mark. The biggest support for Nifty now seen at 10583 mark.

What Technical Tells Us On Nifty:

Nifty’s KEY SUPPORTS: 10583/10501.
Nifty’s KEY HURDLE: 10725/10809/10921.

Nifty’s INTRADAY RANGE: 10591-10701.
Nifty’s OUTLOOK FOR THE DAY: Up & Down session likely.

The Indian rupee opened marginally higher at 71.29 per dollar v/s Monday’s close 71.34.

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09:30 Hrs: Make Informed Decisions

(Nifty: +74 pts, 10678): In early action, the benchmark Nifty opened largely positive after the 8th straight session of losses yesterday, showing some fireworks. Good enough to lighten the dark skies.

Bullish enthusiasm seems to return and what needs to be seen is whether gap up gains will be held on through the day.

Nifty’s hurdles seen at 10725 and next at 10809 mark. Nifty’s support now seen at 10583 mark.

Amongst stocks on positive side are: ONGC (+1.62%, 141) VEDL (+1.53%,  155) IBULLHSGFIN (+1.51%, 623)

On the negative side are: Hero Motocorp (-0.98%, 2611) NTPC (-0.86%, 132) Bajaj Auto (-0.82%, 2765).

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09:00 Hrs: What Caught our Eye at 9 AM?

This Wednesday morning, positive global cues are again giving buy signals for our stock markets. Amidst this backdrop, the needle could move on the positive side in early action.

Having said that, the sentiment could be dented and upside will be capped after Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s comments that his country will retaliate if India launches military strikes in the aftermath of the Pulwama terror attack.

DOW FUTURES (+15, 25897)
NASDAQ FUTURES (+10, 7078)
SGX NIFTY (+54, 10667)
NIKKEI (+149, 21452)
HANG SENG (+291, 28519)
SHANGHAI (+8, 2763).

STOCKS TO WATCH:

Negative FIIs flows amidst rising crude-oil prices plus tensions over Kashmir could weigh on sentiment and dash hopes of any sizeable recovery in stocks. Keep an eye on the negative market breadth which continues to be weak and most importantly relatively narrow at Dalal Street in terms of leadership.

Bullish stocks: REC, PFC, OIL INDIA, DLF, AIA ENGINEERING, IPCA LABS, BATA, Dr. LAL PATH LABS, TEAMLEASE, PI INDUSTRIES.

Bearish stocks: BEML, HPCL, IOC, ACC, AMBUJA CEMENTS, RELIANCE INDUSTRIES, UBI, OBC, BOI, CUMMINS, PNB, KSCL, MCX, NMDC, NALCO.

SHOW ME THE MONEY: BUY PFC (CMP 107.55) PFC is seen signaling a breakout from a probable ‘higher consolidation zone’ on daily charts. Key interweek support seen at 99. Strength seen above 110. Interweek Strategy: Buy between 105-106.50 zone, targeting 110 zone and then aggressive targets at 117.50 zone. Stop below 102.45.

Q3 RESULTS TO TRICKLE IN TODAY: India’s corporate earnings have started to dry up.

Bulls Vs. Bears: Time to Pick a Side!!

Look to establish long positions only bulls aim to regroup and defend 10583 mark.

Preferred trade on Nifty (10604): Sell on strength between 10651-10675 zone, targeting 10583 and then aggressive targets at 10501-10525 zone with strict stop at 10811.

Preferred trade on Bank Nifty (26684): The biggest near term supports at 26381. Confirmation of strength only above 27751. Sell between 26801-26901 zone, targeting 26381 and then at 25381-25501 mark with strict stop at 27251.

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08:00 Hrs: Calculus Derivatives Corner

Market Summary:

• Nifty 28th February Futures ended Tuesday’s session at a premium of +10 against +14.

• The Put- Call Open Interest Ratio was at 0.92 for Nifty whereas it was 1.24 for Bank Nifty.

• The Put-Call Volume Ratio was at 0.87 for the Nifty and 0.78 for Bank Nifty.

• For Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 11000 Strike Price, followed by 10800 Strike Price for 28th February Series. Short buildup was seen at strike prices 10500-10700.

Maximum Put Open Interest (OI) was seen at strike price 10400 followed by 10700 strike price for 28th February series. Short covering was seen at strike prices 10700-11100.

• For Bank Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 28000 Strike Price and Maximum Put Open Interest stands at 28000 Strike Price.

• As per Tuesday’s Provisional Data available on the NSE, FII’s sold shares worth Rs. 813.76 crores in the Indian Equity Market. DIIs on the other hand, bought shares worth Rs. 1163.85 crores in the Indian Equity market.

Long Buildup: PFC, ICICI BANK, DLF.

Short Buildup: INFY, RELIANCE, KSCL, HUL, INDUSIND.

Short Covering: M&M, BPCL, TATA MOTORS, BANKINDIA.

Long Unwinding: UPL, DABUR, JUBLFOOD, HAVELLS.

Stocks banned in F&O segment for today: ADANI ENT, IDBI, JETAIRWAYS, PC JEWELLER, RELIANCE INFRA, RPOWER.

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07:30 Hrs: Audio Podcast

Here is an Audio Podcast for you to know the pulse of the Market on the Go!!

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07:00 Hrs: Know What Matters at Dalal Street at 7 AM!!

Markets Update: February 20, 2019 – Today’s action in the Markets

SGX Nifty in early action is pushing higher suggesting that our stock markets will rise above the break-even line after yesterday’s sharp hefty losses in final hour of trades.

7 AM GLOBAL UPDATE:

DOW (+8, 25891)
NASDAQ (+14, 7486)
SGX NIFTY (+52, 10665)
NIKKEI (+111, 21413)
HANG SENG (+241, 28469)
BOVESPA (+1149, 97659)

OIL (-0.25, $55.84)
GOLD (+2, $1347)

SUCCESSFUL INVESTING IS ANTICIPATING THE TRENDS OF:

Global: Positive.
FII: Negative.
DII: Positive.
F&O: Negative.
‪Sentiment: Caution prevails.

NIFTY’s CRUCIAL LEVELS:

Nifty’s CURRENT MARKET PRICE: 10,604.

Nifty’s SUPPORT:
Intraday: 10583/10501.
Medium Term: 10,583/10,333.
Long Term: 9,951.

Nifty’s RESISTANCE:
Intraday: 10725/10809.
Medium Term: 10,921/11,125.
Long Term: 11,751.

Nifty’s RANGE:
Intraday: 10,575-10689.
Medium Term: 10,501-11,000.
Long Term: 9950-11,725.

Nifty’s OUTLOOK
Intraday: Neutral.
Medium Term: Neutral.
Long Term: Positive.

Our call of the day: News from the border, the U.S-China trade front and the Federal Reserve minutes, due on Wednesday, will help decide whether Dalal Street can rebound from current oversold conditions. Confidence will be knocked only if Nifty slips below 10583 mark.

Our chart of the day: suggests establishing short positions in stocks BEML, BHARAT FORGE and SRF with interweek perspective.

IMPORTANT THEMES FOR THE DAY:

• Oil continues to trade firm on Saudi and OPEC cuts, now at $56 a barrel.

• The technical, fundamental and sentimental landscape at Dalal Street is deteriorating each passing day at Dalal Street. The fall is an almost straight line lower.

The benchmark Nifty in a span of just eight trading sessions has tanked from 11125 peak to 10605 valley. To put it dramatically, the benchmark Nifty from a newlywed has become a widow in less than eight trading sessions — the highest high of 2019 to the lowest closing low of 2019.

Honestly speaking, the gyan mantra to stay afloat in a volatile market like this is to keep books light on buy side.

Technically, fortunes on the buy side only if Nifty holds and rebounds from its key at Jan 2019 lows at 10,583. Confirmation of strength only if Nifty moves above 10801 mark.

Disclaimer: LotusFunds subscribers/clients may have positions in the stocks  recommended in this note. Please note that the actual subscribers may receive additional information in real time not available to the viewers of this note.

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