Markets Update: February 14, 2019 – Today’s action in the Markets

16:00 Hrs: Latest After the Closing Bell

Nifty (-47, 10746): Nifty ends below 10750 mark.
As was widely expected, Nifty bulls were dateless in today’s trade as the benchmarks were modestly down and most importantly for the fifth straight session. The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was negative.
Yes Bank was star performer, jumping 30% + its highest intraday bounce seen since July 2005, after the company announced no divergence on the asset classification and provisioning for FY18.
For investors, the next best thing to a fortune teller is an amicable resolution to the U.S-China trade issues.
Technically, fortunes  on the buy side only if Nifty holds and rebounds from its key support at 10675-10701 zone.
Now before we sign off for the day, let’s look at major instruments:
4.00 PM GLOBAL UPDATE:
DOW Futures (+82, 25570)
NASDAQ Futures (+28, 7044)
DAX (+9,  11176)
FTSE (+11, 704)
OIL (+0.51, $54.42)
GOLD (-6, $1309)
DOLLAR INDEX (-0.08, 97.12)
COPPER (+26, 6168)
How Asia fared today:
HANG SENG (-65, 28432)
NIKKEI (-5, 21140)
SHANGHAI (-1,  2719)
Nifty (-47, 10746)
Sensex (-158, 35876)
Bank Nifty (+85, 26971)
SGX NIFTY (-0, 10790)
USD/INR (+0.31, 71.11)

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15:00 Hrs: Where’s the clever money going at 3 PM?

Nifty (-49, 10744): Nifty unable to capitalize on positive global cues plus positive macro economic factors like wholesale prices in India which have eased to 2.76% in January, as compared to 3.80% in December.

Broader markets are also seen waiting for direction, yet again. Support for Nifty seen at 10675-10701. Makes sense to stay light on buy side for one more trading session.

Probable BTST/STBT trades

Bullish looking BTST stocks: BEML, SRF, BATA, NCC, ICICI BANK

Negative looking STBT stocks: HDFC, PIDILITE, LARSEN, SIEMENS, INFY, TCS

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14:00 Hrs: Life at Dalal Street after Europe’s Opening Bell

It’s high time that Dalal Street’s stock-market investors too start cheering to Trump’s softened tone on tariffs.

Well, this week, Chinese stocks have rebounded after hitting multiyear lows. At the time of writing, Europe had opened in green and Dow Jones futures were seen heading higher, after President Donald Trump said he may let a China trade-deal deadline slide if the two sides were making enough progress.

Technically, the biggest near term support on Nifty is at 10675 mark.

DAX (+47, 11214)
FTSE (+16, 7214)

DOW Futures (+99, 25587)
NASDAQ Futures (+33, 7049)

HANG SENG (-65, 28432)
NIKKEI (-5, 21140)
SHANGHAI (-1, 2719)

Nifty (-30, 10763)
Bank Nifty (+91, 26977)

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12:30 Hrs: Dalal Street’s Top Stories at Midday

(Nifty 10747, Down 46 points): Nifty seen trading well below the dotted lines as also hurting this session is an exhausted Asia where indices are simply treading water despite Chinese trade data showing exports rose more than 9% in January – easing worries that the world’s no. 2 economy was slowing.

That said, we suspect Nifty could make a panic bottom near the 10675-10701 zone on hopes that both U.S-China will make headway on big issues like Beijing’s technology policy.

Well, it’s nice to see both nations trying to reach a deal before March 1. That’s when additional tariffs will kick in, escalating the conflict and further hurting companies and consumers with higher prices on materials and products.

The latest round of trade negotiations between the US and China began Monday with working-level talks in Beijing, while Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer are reportedly due to arrive Thursday for more high-level discussions.

• The technicals and sentimental landscape have worsened and that’s bad news for Dalal Street. The biggest near term support on Nifty is at 10675 mark.

• The street is not reacting to positive macro economic factors like wholesale prices in India which has eased to 2.76% in January, as compared to 3.80% in December.

• Amongst sectoral indices, NSE Media index is star performer, up 1.73% while maximum pains is visible in NSE METALS sector down 1.85%.

• The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market is weak.

• NSE Advances 17. NSE declines 33.

• The NSE Mid-Cap index is up 0.07% at 4,480. The NSE Small-Cap index is down 0.16% at 5,746.

• In F&O space YES Bank is star performer, up 23% at 209 fololwed by CG Power & DHFL which are in green, up 19% & 6% respectively; while on flip side OFSS & REFCO HOME FINANCE & NBCC are down 8%, 7.56% & 6.6% respectively.

• Yes Bank has rallied, its highest intraday bounce seen since July 2005, after the company announced no divergence on the asset classification and provisioning for FY18.

• Q3 RESULTS TO TRICKLE IN: Glenmark Pharma, GVK Power, HDIL, Infibeam, MTNL, Nestle India, ONGC, Tata Teleservices, United Breweries, and Voltas.

• In Europe, the UK, meanwhile, is bracing to exit the European Union on March 29 with or without a trade agreement in hand.

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10:30 Hrs: Pursue Opportunities in commodities

Attention squarely on U.S.-China trade talks. Dollar index firms up, Gold wavers. Bias on Crude-Oil continues to be positive after Saudi & OPEC cuts.

Gold (-3, 1311): Gold wavered in yesterday’s trade. Positive bias as long as 1291 support is held. Hurdles now seen at 1331. Interweek Strategy: Buy between 1297-1301 zone, targeting 1331 and then at 1351-1368 zone with stop below 1289.

MCX Gold (-0.18%, 32908). Buy only on corrective declines.

Silver (-0.36%, 15.59): Hurdles now seen at 16.09. Confirmation of major strength only above 16.75. Interweek Strategy: Buy at CMP, targeting 16.09 zone and then at 16.71-16.75 zone with stop below 14.91.
MCX Silver (+0.07%, 39443): Positive bias to continue.

Crude Oil (+0.25%, 54.15). Crude oil prices rebounded in yesterday’s trade. Key support now at 51 zone. Interweek strategy: Establish buy positions at CMP, targeting, 55 and then at 57.50 zone with strict stop at 51.

MCX Crude Oil (+0.97%, 3839). MCX Oil gains after Saudi & OPEC cuts. Confirmation of strength only above 3911. Interweek strategy: Buy at CMP, targeting 3911 mark and then aggressive targets at 4000-4076 zone with stop at 3611.

Copper (+0.32%, 6155): U.S-China trade truce could be a key positive catalyst.
MCX Copper (-0.11%, 435): Interweek strategy: Establish buy positions at CMP, targeting 451 mark and then aggressive targets at 463-475 zone with stop at 417.

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10:00 Hrs: Nifty’s Crucial Levels at 10 AM

Nifty’s (-29, 10763) Pessimism likely to prevail.

Honestly speaking, the sentimental landscape has deteriorated at Dalal Street. From 11125 peak to 10769 valley in a span of just 4 trading sessions on benchmark Nifty. The bears are now seen simply seen claiming final victory this 5th day.

The biggest support for Nifty now seen at 10675 mark. Let’s hope bulls regroup on this valentine day and attempt a v shape recovery on backdrop of positive global cues.

What Technical Tells Us On Nifty:

Nifty’s KEY SUPPORTS: 10751/10675.
Nifty’s KEY HURDLE: 10829/10951.

Nifty’s INTRADAY RANGE: 10721-10821.
Nifty’s OUTLOOK FOR THE DAY: Up & Down session likely.

The Indian rupee weakens further in the early action this Thursday. It has opened lower by 17 paise at 70.86 per dollar versus previous close 70.59.

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09:30 Hrs: Make Informed Decisions

(Nifty: -39, 10754): In early action, the benchmark Nifty has nowhere to go but down.
The fall appears severe as bulls are virtually hearing Dalal Street’s computer servers breathing in the background loud and clear. Nifty’s hurdles seen at 10861 mark and then at 10951 mark. Nifty’s support now seen at 10675 mark.

Amongst stocks on positive side are: YES BANK (+22%, 210), IBULLSHSGFIN (+4%, 643) EICHER MOTORS (+1.63%, 20487)

On the negative side are: INFRATEL (-2%, 298) BHARTI AIRTEL (-2%, 305) COAL INDIA (-1.84%, 216).

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09:00 Hrs: What Caught our Eye at 9 AM?

Markets Update: February 14, 2019 – Today’s action in the Markets
Action at Asia is indicating bulls’ are dateless on the buy side. Perhaps waiting for US-China trade outcome.

DOW FUTURES (+24, 25512)
NASDAQ FUTURES (+2, 7019)
SGX NIFTY (-41, 10762)
NIKKEI (+44, 21189)
HANG SENG (-1719, 28318)
SHANGHAI (-5, 2715).

STOCKS TO WATCH:

Negative FIIs flows amidst rising crude-oil prices are likely to dash hopes of any sizeable recovery in stocks. Also, blame it to the negative market breadth which continues to be weak and most importantly relatively narrow at Dalal Street in terms of leadership.

That said, BATA should be a stock on your radar on buy side as its technicals’ are aggressively bullish. And if you are from the bears camp, we believe an incredible romantic day on cards for you. Prominent stocks looking weak are ACC, TVS MOTORS & PNB preferred bets on sell side!!

• Bullish stocks: BATA, DFM FOODS, AAVAS, SRF, UPL, Dr. LAL PATH LABS, TEAMLEASE, PI INDUSTRIES, DABUR.

• Bearish stocks: MARICO, KTK BANK, PFC, ACC, AMBUJA CEMENTS, UBI, OBC, BOI, CUMMINS, PNB, KSCL, MCX, NALCO.

• SHOW ME THE MONEY: SELL PNB (CMP 69.45): The interweek/intermonth risk is on the downside as long as 77.50 resistance is held with aggressive downside targets at 57.50-63 zone. Interweek Strategy: Sell between 70.50-71.50 zone, targeting 63 and then at 57.50-59 zone with stop above 73.70.

Q3 RESULTS TO TRICKLE IN TODAY:

• 14-Feb: Glenmark Pharma, GVK Power, HDIL, Infibeam, MTNL, Nestle India, ONGC, Tata Teleservices, United Breweries, and Voltas.

Bulls Vs. Bears: Time to Pick a Side!!

Nowhere to go but down.

As was expected, in yesterday’s trade, a day before the valentine day, our markets showed their love to the bears as stocks were modestly down in yesterday’s trading session. The fall was so severe that we could virtually hear Dalal Street’s computer servers breathing in the background.

Probably, liquidity was not in favor our stock markets hence causing selling pressure!

Preferred trade on Nifty (10793): Sell between 10831-10851 zone, targeting 10751 and then at 10675-10701 zone with strict stop at 10941.

Preferred trade on Bank Nifty (26885): The biggest intraday support seen at 26801. Key near term supports at 26381. Confirmation of strength only above 27751. Sell between 27001-27151 zone, targeting 26501 and then at 26381-26401 mark and finally at 25501 with strict stop at 27551.

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08:00 Hrs: Calculus Derivatives Corner

Markets Update: February 14, 2019 – Today’s action in the Markets
Market Summary:

• Nifty 28th February Futures ended Wednesday’s session at a premium of +15 against +28.

• The Put- Call Open Interest Ratio was at 1.18 for Nifty whereas it was 1.48 for Bank Nifty.

• The Put-Call Volume Ratio was at 0.95 for the Nifty and 0.87 for Bank Nifty.

• For Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 11000 Strike Price, followed by 11200 Strike Price for 28th February Series. Short buildup was seen at strike price 10800-11100.

• Maximum Put Open Interest (OI) was seen at strike price 10400 followed by 10700 strike price for 28th February series. Short covering was seen at strike prices 10700-11200.

• For Bank Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 27500 Strike Price and Maximum Put Open Interest stands at 27000 Strike Price.

• As per Wednesday’s Provisional Data available on the NSE, FII’s sold shares worth Rs. 676.63 crores in the Indian Equity Market. DIIs on the other hand, bought shares worth Rs. 713.10 crores in the Indian Equity market.

• Long Buildup: BATA, HUL, PEL, HCLTECH.

• Short Buildup: ONGC, IOC, BPCL, RELIANCE, JAIN IRRIGATION.

• Short Covering: SUN PHARMA, NCC, COAL INDIA, INDIACEM, JET AIRWAYS.

• Long Unwinding: AXIS BANK, TITAN, AUROPHARMA, RBL BANK.

• Stocks banned in F&O segment for today: ADANI ENT, IDBI, JETAIRWAYS, JAIN IRRIGATION, RELCAP, RPOWER.

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07:00 Hrs: Know What Matters at Dalal Street at 7 AM!!

Markets Update: February 14, 2019 – Today’s action in the Markets

Its Valentine’s Day! We wish all our lovely readers a Happy Valentine’s Day!!

Early action at SGX Nifty are indicating that our stock markets will show their love to the bears. That’s despite, Wall Street finishing higher in yesterday’s session; as investors primarily focused on potential progress in the U.S-China trade deal than on global growth concerns.

7 AM GLOBAL UPDATE:

DOW (+118, 25543)
NASDAQ (+6, 7420)
SGX NIFTY (-21, 10781)
NIKKEI (+15, 21159)
HANG SENG (-121, 28377)
BOVESPA (-326, 95842)

OIL (+0.26, $54.15)
GOLD (-3, $1311)

SUCCESSFUL INVESTING IS ANTICIPATING THE TRENDS OF:

Global: Positive.
FII: Negative.
DII: Positive.
F&O: Negative.
‪Sentiment: Negative.

NIFTY’s CRUCIAL LEVELS:

Nifty’s CURRENT MARKET PRICE: 10,794.

Nifty’s SUPPORT:
Intraday: 10751/10,675.
Medium Term: 10,583/10,333.
Long Term: 9,951.

Nifty’s RESISTANCE:
Intraday: 10861, 10951.
Medium Term: 11,001/11,125.
Long Term: 11,751.

Nifty’s RANGE:
Intraday: 10,721-10845.
Medium Term: 10,501-11,125.
Long Term: 10301-11,701.

Nifty’s OUTLOOK
Intraday: Negative.
Medium Term: Neutral.
Long Term: Positive.

Our call of the day says money making ideas on the buy side are difficult to find as negativity seen creeping into our stock markets. The sentimental landscape has deteriorated at Dalal Street. From peak to valley in a span of just 4 trading sessions. The bears are now seen simply seen claiming final victory.

Many a momentum stocks are still on corrective mode, hence bulls are likely to be dateless this valentine with true stocks on the buy side. Downside risk on Nifty now at 10675-10681 zone. Bulls could probably aim regroup at lower levels near Nifty 10675 mark.

Volatility likely to be hallmark of today’s trade. Technically speaking, ‘Cash will be king — until Nifty is unable to move above its crucial hurdles at 10951 mark’.

Our chart of the day suggests Bata could be a valentine stock, but on any corrective declines. But having said that, there are some momentum stocks on the sell side which traders can look to sell as we believe an incredible romantic day on cards for bears. Prominent stocks looking weak are ACC, PNB, and TVS MOTORS.

Q3 EARNINGS TO TRICKLE IN TODAY:

• 14-Feb: Glenmark Pharma, GVK Power, HDIL, Infibeam, MTNL, Nestle India, ONGC, Tata Teleservices, United Breweries, and Voltas.

IMPORTANT THEMES FOR THE DAY:

1. Oil continues to trade firm on Saudi and OPEC cuts.

2. Inflation print: All anxious eyes will be on the wholesale inflation prints for the month of January 2019 to be released on Thursday. The annual rate of inflation, based on monthly WPI, stood at 3.80% for the month of December 2018 as compared to 4.64% for November. Recently, the RBI cut its repo rate by 25 basis points considering the benign inflation level.

• Overnight, a broad based rally was witnessed at Wall Street after President Donald Trump said he may let a China trade-deal deadline “slide” if the two sides were making enough progress.

Trump said Tuesday that he would allow for flexibility on the timeline for a deal with China if an agreement looks close. Meanwhile, as per reports, Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to meet key members of the U.S. delegation on Friday.

A 90-day trade truce ends on March 1, and tariffs on some $200 billion in goods had been set to be raised to 10% from 25% at 12:01 a.m. Eastern time March 2.

• Stocks in Europe moved higher on Wednesday as investors monitored trade and political developments. The UK, meanwhile, is bracing to exit the European Union on March 29 with or without a trade agreement in hand. UK Prime Minister Theresa May will update lawmakers on the latest Brexit developments.

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