Stock market
Stock market

16:00 Hrs: Latest After the Closing Bell

Nifty (-60, 10828): Dalal Street was again swooned in Tuesday’ trade.

The benchmark Nifty witnessed further setback and most importantly, for the third day in a row amidst deteriorating technical conditions.

The negative takeaway from today’s trade was that bears continued to dominate despite optimism a theme at worldwide stock markets over potential for China-U.S. trade deal. At the time of writing Dow Jones futures were seen trading with solid gains as lawmakers reach tentative shutdown deal.

Now technically speaking, and judging by today’s price action at Dalal Street, the benchmark Nifty slip further towards its crucial make-or-break support at 10778 mark. Buying on dips could be the preferred strategy for aggressive bullish traders only if 10778 support holds on Nifty.

Well, if benchmark Nifty has to climb from current higher levels then a quick resolution needed in the 11-month old longstanding trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

Now before we sign off for the day, let’s look at major instruments.

GLOBAL UPDATE:

DOW Futures (+160, 25177)
NASDAQ Futures (+47, 6961)
DAX (+104, 11120)
FTSE (+21, 7150)

OIL (+0.37, $52.78)
GOLD (+4, $1316)
DOLLAR INDEX (+0.02, 97.09)
COPPER (-35, 6108)

How Asia fared today:

HANG SENG (+28, 28171)
NIKKEI (+511, 20864)
SHANGHAI (+18, 2672)

Nifty (-60, 10828)
Sensex (-241, 36153)
Bank Nifty (-218, 27010)
SGX NIFTY (-0, 10862)
USD/INR (-0.44, 70.74)

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15:00 Hrs: Where’s the clever money going at 3 PM?

Nifty (-53, 10835): Nifty unable to shake off its morning losses as the broader markets are also seen waiting for direction yet again, and that direction depends on the outcome of fresh round of trade talks between the United States and China this week in Beijing.

Downside risk for Nifty seen at 10787 mark.

Probable BTST/STBT trades

Bullish looking BTST stocks: NCC, AUROBINDO PHARMA, KOTAK BANK

Negative looking STBT stocks: OBC, PNB, SBI, GMR INFRA, HDFC.

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14:00 Hrs: Life at Dalal Street after Europe’s Opening Bell

A lackluster session being witnessed at Dalal Street despite optimism a theme at worldwide stock markets over potential for China-U.S. trade deal. At the time of writing Dow Jones futures were seen trading with solid gains as lawmakers reach tentative shutdown deal.

DAX (+105, 11119)
FTSE (+23, 7152)

DOW Futures (+164, 25181)
NASDAQ Futures (+55, 6969)

HANG SENG (+27, 28171)
NIKKEI (+531, 20864)
SHANGHAI (+18, 2672)

Nifty (-18, 10871)
Bank Nifty (-38, 27190)

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12:00 Hrs: Dalal Street’s Top Stories at Midday

(Nifty 10885, Down 3 points):
• Key indices are seen hovering in a small range.
• The biggest intraday support on Nifty in near term is at 10787 mark. Below 10787, the technicals will turn in favor of bears.
• We suspect, the ongoing negative landscape will change to bullish only if we can knock off U.S-China trade issues from the front pages
• All eyes will be on the two macroeconomic data: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January and Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for December 2018 which are slated to be released post market hours.
• Among sectoral indices, most of the sectors are in green. NSE METAL is the star performer up 2.38%. Maximum pains is visible in NSE IT sector down 1.40%.
• The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market is negative.
• NSE Advances 30. NSE declines 20.
• The NSE Mid-Cap index is up 0.36% at 4,506. The NSE Small-Cap index is down 0.23% at 5,811.
• In F&O space JINDAL STEEL& SAIL & CANFINHOME are in green, up 7.30%, 5.69 & 8.95% respectively; while on flip side KSCL & IGL & IDEA are down 4.88%, 3.60% & 3.69 respectively.
• The latest round of trade negotiations between the US and China began Monday with working-level talks in Beijing, while Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer are reportedly due to arrive Thursday for more high-level discussions.
• In Europe, the UK, meanwhile, is bracing to exit the European Union on March 29 with or without a trade agreement in hand.
Q3 RESULTS TO TRICKLE IN: Bata India, Coal India, Container Corporation, HEG, Hindalco, Karur Vysya Bank, Manpasand Beverages, NCC, and Sun Pharma.

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10:30 Hrs: Pursue Opportunities in Commodities

Attention squarely on U.S.-China trade talks.
Dollar index builds on its smart gain and that’s weighing recovery on precious metals, however, risk-off sentiment, on the back of weakness in global stock markets should cap losses for haven gold.
Oil could slip on backdrop of sharp decline on energy demand risks and a possible boost to Libya output.
Gold (-1, 1312): Buy only on corrective declines.
MCX Gold (-0.18%, 32988) Interweek strategy: BUY at CMP, targeting 33601 and then at 33901 zone with stop at 32411.
Silver (+0.03%, 15.72): Positive bias to continue.
MCX Silver (+0.07%, 39848): Interweek strategy: Buy at CMP, targeting 40750 mark and then aggressive targets at 41500-41698 zone with stop at 38751.
Crude Oil (+0.35%, 52.75): Key support remains at  49 zone. Interweek strategy: Establish sell positions at CMP, targeting, 51 and then at 49  and finally at 45-46 zone with strict stop at  55.
MCX Crude Oil (+0.97%, 3755): Oil may slips amidst  global growth concerns. Interweek strategy: Aggressive traders can look to establish buy positions only above 3911.

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10:00 Hrs: Nifty’s Crucial Levels at 10 AM

Nifty’s (-22, 10868): Nifty continues to trade depressed amidst deteoriating technical backdrop.

Technically, the benchmark Nifty faces major hurdles at 11,125 mark. Confirmation of strength if Nifty closes above 11125 mark.

All eyes now turn to the biggest intraday support on Nifty for the day at 10787 mark. Only below 10787 mark, the technicals will turn in favor of bears. Please note there is probability that Nifty could bounce to 10945 and then 11000 mark if the bench holds above 10787 mark.

What Technical Tells Us On Nifty:

Nifty’s KEY SUPPORTS: 10841/10787.
Nifty’s KEY HURDLE: 10945/11001.

Nifty’s INTRADAY RANGE: 10839-10941.
Nifty’s OUTLOOK FOR THE DAY: Buy only on any sharp declines. Strict stop below Nifty 10787.

Q3 Results to trickle in today: 12-Feb: Bata India, Coal India, Container Corporation, HEG, Hindalco, Karur Vysya Bank, Manpasand Beverages, NCC, and Sun Pharma.

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09:45 Hrs: Make Informed Decisions

(Nifty: -11, 10881): In early action, up-and-down moves seen in benchmark Nifty. Bias continues to be negative and we suspect our stock markets will remain hostage to cues coming out from fresh round of trade talks between the United States and China this week in Beijing.

Nifty hurdles now are at 11001 mark. Nifty’s make-or-support seen at 10787.

All eyes will be on the two macroeconomic data: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January and Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for December 2018 which are slated to be released later in the day.

Amongst stocks on positive side are: ZEE ENETRTAINMENT (+1.93%, 410) POWERGRID (+1.45%, 185) IBULLSHSGFIN (+1.38%, 606)

On the negative side are: INFY (-2.67%, 743) INFRATEL (-2.30%, 316) TCS (-1.87%, 2027).

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09:00 Hrs: What Caught our Eye at 9 AM?

Hang Seng in green driven by trade-deal hopes.

DOW FUTURES (+88, 25105)
NASDAQ FUTURES (+33, 6947)
SGX NIFTY (-20, 10911)
NIKKEI (+412, 20745)
HANG SENG (+14, 28157)
SHANGHAI (+10, 2664).

STOCKS TO WATCH:

Hopes continue to be dashed for sizeable recovery in stocks on backdrop of market breadth which continues to be weak and most importantly relatively narrow at Dalal Street in terms of leadership.

That said, SRF should be a stock on your radar on buy side as its technicals’ are aggressively bullish. And if you are from the bears camp and liking Salmon Sashimi then ACC & AMBUJA CEMENTS preferred bets on sell side!!

• Bullish stocks: SRF, UPL, Dr. LAL PATH LABS, TEAMLEASE, PI INDUSTRIES, DABUR, MINDTREE, NIIT TECH.

• Bearish stocks: PFC, ACC, AMBUJA CEMENTS, UBI, OBC, BOI, CUMMINS, KSCL, TATA COMMUNICATION, MCX, MRF, NALCO.

• SHOW ME THE MONEY: SELL PNB (CMP 71.10): The interweek/intermonth risk is on the downside as long as 76.50 resistance is held with aggressive downside targets at 57.50-63 zone. Interweek Strategy: Sell between 72-73 zone, targeting 63 and then at 57.50-59 zone with stop above 76.70.

Q3 RESULTS TO TRICKLE IN TODAY:

• 12-Feb: Bata India, Coal India, Container Corporation, HEG, Hindalco, Karur Vysya Bank, Manpasand Beverages, NCC, and Sun Pharma.

Bulls Vs. Bears: Time to Pick a Side!!

You can say with certainty that markets have topped for now only if Nifty slips below 10787 mark.

Preferred trade on Nifty (10899): Sell on early strength between 10941-10957 zone, targeting 10841 and then at 10787-10801 zone with strict stop at 11011.

Preferred trade on Bank Nifty (27228): Key near term supports at 26381. Confirmation of strength only above 27751. Sell between 27301-27451 zone, targeting 27001 and then at 26381-26401 mark with strict stop at 27751.

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08:00 Hrs: Calculus Derivatives Corner

Markets Update: February 12, 2019 – Today’s action in the Markets

• Nifty 28th February Futures ended Monday’s session at a premium of +35 against +0.1.

• The Put- Call Open Interest Ratio was at 1.28 for Nifty whereas it was 1.48 for Bank Nifty.

• The Put-Call Volume Ratio was at 0.95 for the Nifty and 1.21 for Bank Nifty.

• For Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 11000 Strike Price, followed by 11200 Strike Price for 28th February Series. Short buidlup was seen at strike price 10700-10900.

• Maximum Put Open Interest (OI) was seen at strike price 10400 followed by 10700 strike price for 28th February series. Short covering was seen at strike prices 11000-11200.

• For Bank Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 27500 Strike Price and Maximum Put Open Interest stands at 27000 Strike Price.

• As per Monday’s Provisional Data available on the NSE, FII’s sold shares worth Rs. 125.05 crores in the Indian Equity Market. DIIs too sold shares worth Rs. 232.55 crores in the Indian Equity market.

• Long Buildup: SUN TV, TECHM, TITAN.

• Short Buildup: NALCO, RELIANCE, L&T, M&M, INDIACEM.

• Short Covering: TATA STEEL, HEROMOTO, BHARAT FIN, ZEEL.

• Long Unwinding: DABUR, HAVELLS, SRTFIN, CHOLAFIN, DIVIS.

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07:00 Hrs: Know What Matters at Dalal Street at 7 AM!!

Markets Update: February 12, 2019 – Today’s action in the Markets

Early action at SGX Nifty is indicating our stock markets to open with a touch of red.

Also, global stock markets could trade below the dotted lines on concern that the U.S. government is headed for a second shutdown. Well, this could offset reports that the U.S. and China are making progress in negotiations over trade.

7 AM GLOBAL UPDATE:

DOW (-53, 25055)
NASDAQ (+10, 7308)
SGX NIFTY (-12, 10919)
NIKKEI (+297, 20630)
HANG SENG (-43, 28100)
BOVESPA (-930, 94413)

OIL (+0.03, $52.43)
GOLD (+1, $1313)

SUCCESSFUL INVESTING IS ANTICIPATING THE TRENDS OF:

Global: Mixed.
FII: Negative.
DII: Negative.
F&O: Negative.
‪Sentiment: Negative.

NIFTY’s CRUCIAL LEVELS:

Nifty’s CURRENT MARKET PRICE: 10,889.

Nifty’s SUPPORT:
Intraday: 10839/10,787.
Medium Term: 10,721/10,583.
Long Term: 9,951.

Nifty’s RESISTANCE:
Intraday: 10945, 11001.
Medium Term: 11,125/11,501.
Long Term: 11,751.

Nifty’s RANGE:
Intraday: 10,825-10945.
Medium Term: 10,501-11,125.
Long Term: 10301-11,701.

Nifty’s OUTLOOK
Intraday: Negative.
Medium Term: Neutral.
Long Term: Positive.

Our call of the day suggests our stock markets will remain hostage to cues coming out from fresh round of trade talks between the United States and China this week in Beijing.

Amidst this backdrop, the benchmark Nifty likely to struggle for direction in today’s trade as well. Immediate downside risk seen at 10787 on Nifty. That landscape will change to bullish only if we can knock off U.S-China trade issues from the front pages.

Technically speaking, ‘Cash will be king — until Nifty is unable to move above its crucial hurdles at 11125 mark’.

Our chart of the day suggests establishing short positions in stocks like ACC, AMBUJA CEMENTS & PFC with interweek perspective.

Q3 EARNINGS TO TRICKLE IN THIS WEEK:

• 12-Feb: Bata India, Coal India, Container Corporation, HEG, Hindalco, Karur Vysya Bank, Manpasand Beverages, NCC, and Sun Pharma.

• 13-Feb: Adani Gas, Godrej Industries, Lemon Tree Hotels, Prabhat Dairy, Reliance Capital and Ruchi Soya.

• 14-Feb: Glenmark Pharma, GVK Power, HDIL, Infibeam, MTNL, Nestle India, ONGC, Tata Teleservices, United Breweries, and Voltas.

IMPORTANT THEMES FOR THE DAY:

In today’s session, traders’ full focus would be on the macro numbers to be released.

 IIP data: The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) print for the month of December will be released on Tuesday. IIP growth stood at 0.47% in November, with the high base of last year contributing to the slowdown. A disappointing IIP data may not augur well for our stock markets.

 Inflation print: All anxious eyes will be on the retail & wholesale inflation prints for the month of January 2019 to be released on Tuesday & Thursday respectively. Lower fuel prices had eased India’s retail inflation in December to 2.19% from the annual rate of 2.33% in November. The annual rate of inflation, based on monthly WPI, stood at 3.80% for the month of December 2018 as compared to 4.64% for November. Recently, the RBI cut its repo rate by 25 basis points considering the benign inflation level.

Amongst global economic data, China’s inflation data for January will be keenly watched this week.

Disclaimer: LotusFunds subscribers/clients may have positions in the stocks  recommended in this note. Please note that the actual subscribers may receive additional information in real time not available to the viewers of this note.

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