LATEST AFTER THE BELL
Nifty (+47, 11643): It appears that the tables have turned in favor of the bulls camp.
Nifty ended the day, up 0.30% as investors cheered an unexpected strong Chinese export data. All worldwide eyes now turn to earning season.
The big question: Will 4th quarter’s earnings live up to reputation of recent strength at Dalal Street!
Well, we will spy with one big eye and look into detail of the 4th quarter earnings from INFY & TCS. Digging deeper, commanding attention would be IT budget trends for Calendar Year 2019 and any big order wins! It’s quite natural, TCS & INFY will provide big trigger for all IT stocks.
Now if the numbers are above street’s expectations then investors are bound to jump into our markets and bargain hunting is likely to be the theme in near term, with aggressive targets on Nifty at 11901-12000 zone. Alternatively, if INFY & TCS disappoints then obviously you know what to do…
4.00 PM GLOBAL UPDATE:
DOW Futures (+145, 26303)
NASDAQ Futures (+34, 7630)
DAX (+68, 12006)
FTSE (+21, 7449)
OIL (+0.88, $64.45)
GOLD (+3.80, $1297)
DOLLAR INDEX (-0.339, 96.46)
COPPER (+65, 6509)
How Asia fared today:
HANG SENG (+70, 29910)
NIKKEI (+159, 21870)
SHANGHAI (-1, 31883)
Nifty (+47, 11643)
Sensex (+160, 38767)
Bank Nifty (+152, 29939)
SGX NIFTY (+0, 11692)
USD/INR (+0.24, 69.18)
Before we end, please note Industrial production data (IIP) for February 2019 will be unveiled today in the evening. The inflation rate (CPI) for March 2019 will also be announced today.
3:00 PM update
Nifty (+54, 11651): Bulls day out.
Dalal Street trades wil conviction on buy side, and the positive takeaway is that the street is unfazed by outcome of INFY & TCS Q4 outcome
Nifty is trading at day’s high ahead INFY & TCS’s Q4. Short covering +Value buying continues to be the preferred theme at Dalal Street.
The gyan mantra is to trade selective on buy side as Dow futures are pointing to strong gains.
Probable BTST/STBT trades:
Bullish looking BTST trades: DIVIS LAB, AXIS BANK, KOTAK BANK, RELIANCE INDUSTRIES, ICICI BANK, M&M, TVS MOTORS, SBI.
2:00 PM update
Nifty (+23, 11620): BULLS ATTEMPT TO REGROUP.
Dalal Street trades on a positive note despite backdrop of uninspiring overnight Wall Street cues as worldwide investors ponder over how the earning season will pan out. The earning season will be important as will potray fresh clues about the trajectory of the global economy.
Investors are also anxiously awaiting for a strong set of data from Beijing following unexpectedly strong March manufacturing and inflation data. The positive takeaway as of now is that the market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market was positive.
DAX (-4, 11933)
FTSE (+16, 7434)
DOW Futures (+53, 25186)
NASDAQ Futures (+8, 7625)
HANG SENG (-20, 29819)
NIKKEI (+159, 21871)
SHANGHAI (-1, 3183)
Nifty (+23, 11620)
Sensex (+68, 38675)
Bank Nifty (+40, 29826)
12.00 PM UPDATE:
(Nifty 11590, Down 11 points):
- The benchmark indices are seen anxiously waiting for TCS & INFY’s Q4.
- Industrial production (IIP) data for February 2019 will be unveiled after market hours today, 12 April 2019. The inflation (CPI) rate for March 2019 will also be announced today.
- Asian stocks were trading mixed as caution prevailed ahead of the release of first-quarter corporate earnings.
- US stocks were little changed on Thursday as growing anxiety over a global economic slowdown.
- In US economic data, new applications for jobless benefits fell to 196,000 in the week ended April 6, the lowest number in 50 years, the Labor Department said.
- European Union leaders agreed to postpone Brexit until Oct. 31 to allow British Prime Minister Theresa May more time to try to get the U.K.’s Parliament to approve the country’s divorce deal.
- Oil prices were firm on Friday, supported by ongoing supply cuts led by producer club OPEC and by US sanctions on petroleum exporters Iran and Venezuela.
- Sectoral indices trading mix at the moment, where most gains can be seen in NSE Media and Realty, While on the flip side, most pain is visible in PSU Banks.
- The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market is Positive.
- NSE Advances: 19. NSE declines: 31.
- The NSE Mid-Cap index is Down 0.04% at 5,032.The NSE Small-Cap index is Up 0.15% at 6,704.
- INDIA VIX index representing volatility is Up: 21.09 (+0.64 %)
- On the Positive side: GAIL at 350.95 (+2.41%),ADANI PORTS at 385.65 (+1.63%), and CIPLA at 551.55 (+1.23%),are in green,
- On the flip side: IOC at 155.70 (-1.42%), HINDALCO at 208.55 (-1.30%) & TATAMOTORS at 215.70 (-1.15%)
11: 30 AM UPDATE:
A. MACRO EVENTS OF THE DAY:
1. Industrial Production data for February and CPI Inflation for March will trickle in on April 12 after market hours.
2. The inflation will continue to be a key point to look at in coming months as RBI indicated that there is more room for further rate cut after lowering repo rate by 25 bps in its April policy meet, and reduced its CPI inflation forecast for Q4 FY19 as well as for FY20.
3. The Foreign Exchange Reserve data for the week ended April 5, and Deposit and Bank Loan growth for the fortnight that ended on March 29 will be announced on April 12th.
B. Q4 TO TRICKLE IN TODAY:
Infosys, TCS , Tata Metalik, Tinplate Results, GPTL Hathway
C. OTHER KEY EVENTS TO KEEP AN EYE:
SC to Give Verdict on Electoral Bonds.
Lakshmi Vilas Bank Board to Meet For Fund Raising.
10 AM UPDATE:
Nifty’s (+21, 11618): Nifty Support & Hurdles at 11521 and 11675 mark respectively.
As mentioned, Nifty is seen rising in morning action, and now seen faltering a bit. That’s because all investors’ eyes anxiously await INFY & TCS’s Q2
What Technical Tells Us On Nifty:
Nifty’s KEY SUPPORTS: 11521/11471.
Nifty’s KEY HURDLE: 11675/11761.
Nifty’s INTRADAY RANGE: 11545-11675.
Nifty’s OUTLOOK FOR THE DAY: Buy aggressively above 11701 mark.
9.30 AM.(Nifty: +27, 11625): Nifty starts above dotted lines.
All anxious eyes on INFY & TCS Q4.
The positive catalyst which could keep downside limited is India Meteorological Department’s indication that EL Nino conditions have weakened considerably and the assessment is that this unlikely to post any threat to the Southwest monsoon this year.
Amongst stocks on positive side are: BPCL (+1.48%, 367) ASIAN PAINTS (+1.16%, 1440) TATA STEEL (+1.13%, 542).
On the negative side are: GRASIM (-0.97%, 840) BAJAJ AUTO (-0.57%, 2977) TATA MOTORS (-0.57%, 217).
Among the sectors indices, all the sectoral indices are trading in green. Midcap and smallcap indices too above the dotted lines.
Meanwhile, the Indian rupee opened slightly lower at 69.04 per dollar versus previous close 68.92.
9 AM UPDATE:
DOW FUTURES (+25, 26181)
NASDAQ FUTURES (+3, 7599)
SGX NIFTY (-38, 11638)
NIKKEI (+131, 21843)
HANG SENG (-86, 29753)
SHANGHAI (-7, 3183).
The key themes of the day:
- The street will be closely watching INFY and TCS growth outlook as that is likely to be a big trigger for all IT stocks. The other key thing which will command investors’ attention is IT budget trends for Calendar Year 2019 and any big order wins!
- EU leaders’ move to grant the U.K. a delay to Brexit until Oct 31, 2019.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
- BULLISH STOCKS: ACC, ULTRATECH CEMENTS, AMBUJA CEMENTS, ADANI POWER, RELIANCE INDUSTRIES, KOTAK BANK, UFLEX, POLYPLEX, JK PAPER, INTERNATIONAL PAPER, BAJAJ FINANCE, DR REDYYS LAB, MANAPPURAM, CENTURY TEXTILE, CHOLAMANDALAM FINANCE.
- BEARISH STOCKS: CANFIN HOMES, UPL, ASHOK LEYLAND.
All about stocks (F&O Trades):
- RELIANCE INDUSTRIES (1347): Buy between 1331-1341 zone. Targets 1377/1407. Stop 1319.
- AMBUJA CEMENTS (227): Buy between 223-226 zone. Targets 233/251. Stop 219.
- JSW STEEL (287): Sell between 291-293 zone. Targets 281/271. Stop 301.50.
All about stocks (Cash Trades):
- Buy ADANI POWER (CMP 50.45). Buy between 49-50 zone . Targets 53/59. Stop 46.
- Buy ACC (CMP 1676): Buy between 1651-1665 zone. Targets 1721/1801. Stop 1599.
- Buy POLYPLEX (CMP 530): Buy at CMP. Targets 579/679. Stop 471.
SHOW ME THE MONEY: Option Trade: Buy NIFTY 25th APRIL CE Strike Price 11700 at CMP 96. Profit: Unlimited. Maximum Loss: Rs. 7200. Hold CALL Option till April expiry.
Bulls Vs. Bears: Time to Pick a Side!!
INFY & TCS Q4 will be the key!
Preferred trade on Nifty (11597): Buy between 11539-11551 zone. Targets 11675/11761. Stop
Preferred trade on Bank Nifty (29786): Buy between 29641-29675 zone. Targets 30001/30251. Stop
8 AM UPDATE:
- Nifty 25th April Futures ended Thursday’s session at a premium of +73 vs +69.
- The 25th April expiry Put- Call Open Interest Ratio was at 1.18 for Nifty whereas it was 1.07 for Bank Nifty.
- The 25th April expiry Put-Call Volume Ratio was at 1.01 for the Nifty and 0.83 for Bank Nifty.
- For Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 12000 Strike Price, followed by 11800 Strike Price for 25th April Series. Short buildup was seen at strike prices 11800-12000.
- Maximum Put Open Interest (OI) was seen at strike price 11000 followed by 11500 strike price for 25th April series. Short buildup was seen at strike prices 11200-11600.
- For Bank Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 30500 Strike Price and Maximum Put Open Interest stands at 29500 Strike Price.
- As per Thursday’s Provisional Data available on the NSE, FII’s bought shares worth Rs. 476.51 crores in the Indian Equity Market. DIIs on the other hand, sold shares worth Rs. 16.58 crores in the Indian Equity market.
- Long Buildup: SBIN, MANAPPURAM, UJJIVAN, LICHSGFIN.
- Short Buildup: VEDL, JINDALSTL, ICICI BANK, RELCAP.
- Short Covering: IOC, BPCL, HINDPETRO, M&MFIN.
- Long Unwinding: AXIS BANK, TATASTEEL, ZEEL, INFY.
- Stocks banned in F&O segment for today: DHFL, DLF, IDBI, JETAIRWAYS, PC JEWELLER, RPOWER, WOCKPHARMA.
7 AM GLOBAL UPDATE:
DOW (-14, 26143)
NASDAQ (-17, 7947)
SGX NIFTY (-33, 11643)
NIKKEI (+55, 21766)
HANG SENG (-33, 29806)
BOVESPA (-1199, 94755)
OIL (+0.23, $63.80)
GOLD (+3, $1297)
SUCCESSFUL INVESTING IS ANTICIPATING THE TRENDS OF:
NIFTY’s CRUCIAL LEVELS:
Nifty’s CURRENT MARKET PRICE: 11,597.
Medium Term: 11,421/11,171.
Long Term: 10,251.
Medium Term: 11,901/12,001.
Long Term: 12,501.
Medium Term: 11,201-11,901.
Long Term: 10,900-12,501.
Medium Term: Positive.
Long Term: Positive.
Our call of the day suggests it may be safe to wade back into Dalal Street only If Nifty moves above 11,701 mark. Until then downside risk for Nifty at 11471 mark.
And if you are from aggressive traders camp then you should look to buy Reliance Industries on any intraday declines.
Our chart of the day suggests establishing long positions in stocks like RELIANCE INDUSTRIES, AMBUJA CEMENT & V GUARD on any early weakness.
IMPORTANT THEMES FOR THE DAY:
INFY & TCS will officially set afire the ceremonial starter’s pistol for the fourth quarter corporate earnings season.
Expect investors to keep a close eye on the guidance (FY20 outlook).
Yes, the street will be closely watching their growth outlook as that is likely to be a big trigger for all IT stocks. The other key thing which will command investors’ attention is IT budget trends for Calendar Year 2019 and any big order wins!
Now if the numbers are above street’s expectations then investors are bound to jump into our markets and bargain hunting is likely to be the theme of the day. Alternatively, if INFY & TCS disappoints then obviously you know what to do…
Long story short: Stay Nimble as a volatile day on cards with lots of twist and turn.
Now, let’s catching up with other key latest developments — and things you need to know before Dalal Street opens for trade this Friday morning.
1. The first phase of polling began yesterday spanning across 20 states and Union Territories. In the first phase, 91 out of 543 Lok Sabha constituencies went to polls. The counting of all votes will take place on May 23.
We suspect, market volatility will hit the roof ahead of general elections outcome.
2. In yesterday’s trade, Rail Vikas Nigam closed marginally higher at Rs 19.05 on Day 1.
3. The positive catalyst which kept keep downside limited in yesterday’s trade was India Meteorological Department’s indication that EL Nino conditions have weakened considerably and the assessment is that this unlikely to post any threat to the Southwest monsoon this year.
4. EU leaders’ move to grant the U.K. a delay to Brexit until Oct 31, 2019.
Outlook for Friday: Volatility likely to be the hallmark.
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