In line with our positive bias, the benchmark Nifty zoomed to fresh record highs amidst value buying and short covering. The key positive catalysts in today’s trade:
1. Statement from IMD that monsoon is likely to be near normal this year.
2. Monsoon is likely to be 96 percent of the long period average (LPA).
3. Both FIIs & DIIs camp were net buyers in yesterday’s trade.
4. Renewed hopes of U.S-China trade-deal.
5. The chatter around recession fears looking to be a distant memory.
6. Supportive global cues.
7. TCS Q4 above street’s expectations lifting overall sentiments.
Net-net, the bears camp were seen throwing in their towel.
Well, looking and judging by today’s trading action, it appears that a new bull market might just be getting started. Long story short: All eyes on Nifty 12000.
Ab ki baar Nifty barah Hajhaar (This time should hit 12000 mark)
DOW Futures (+102, 26475)
NASDAQ Futures (+29, 7676)
DAX (+71, 12091)
FTSE (+19, 7455)
OIL (-0.09, $63.31)
GOLD (-4, $1287)
DOLLAR INDEX (+0.07, 97.01)
COPPER (-3, 6485)
HANG SENG (+291, 30102)
NIKKEI (+53, 22222)
SHANGHAI (+76, 3253)
Nifty (+97, 11787)
Sensex (+370, 39276)
Bank Nifty (+427, 30531)
SGX NIFTY (+0, 11835)
USD/INR (+0.22, 69.65)
A. Wednesday: Mindtree, Crisil, Tata Steel BSL ltd,
B. Thursday: DCB Bank, ICICI Lombard, Majestic Auto, RBL Bank, Reliance Industries.
C. Friday: Tata Coffee.
D. Saturday: HDFC Bank.
Strong global cues and domestic macro data are also acting as tailwinds. Nifty50 surpassed its previous record high of 11,761 recorded on April 3 and made a fresh life high of 11,787.
• India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued its first stage operational forecast for the southwest monsoon season (June to September) rainfall for the country as a whole in 2019 of its two stages forecast. The first stage forecast is issued in April and the second stage forecast is issued in June.
• The Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be near normal
• Weak El Niño conditions are likely to prevail during the monsoon season with reduced intensity in the later part of the season. IMD will issue the second stage Monsoon-2019 Forecast during the first week of June 2019.
• India’s overall exports (merchandise and services combined) in April-March 2018-19 are estimated to be $535.45 billion, exhibiting a positive growth of 7.97% over the same period last year.
• Asian shares advanced on Tuesday. US-Japan trade talks kicked off and the Bank of Japan chief commented on the risks of increasing trade protectionism for the global economic growth outlook.
• US President Donald Trump has made it clear he is unhappy with Japan’s $69 billion trade surplus with the United States and wants a two-way agreement to address it, the media reported.
• While selling was seen in real estate stocks, rest all the sector indices are in green. Banks and Financials are the star performers in today’s session.
• The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market is Positive.
• NSE Advances: 39. NSE declines: 10.
• The NSE Mid-Cap index is Up 0.36% at 5,101.The NSE Small-Cap index is Up 0.10% at 6,789.
• INDIA VIX index representing volatility is Down: 21.23 (-0.72 %)
• On the Positive side: ICICI BANK at 403.30 (+2.69%),TITAN at 1116.50 (+2.42%), and INDUSIND BANK at 1788.90 (+2.29%),are in green,
• On the flip side: TATA MOTORS at 227.70 (-1.75%), CIPLA at 561.85 (-0.79%) & INFY at 722.45 (-0.69%).
Dalal Street trades on a positive note and most importantly, the benchmark Nifty now seen flirting with the 10800 mark.
The positive takeaway is that the optimism at Dalal Street is despite a backdrop of uninspiring overnight Wall Street cue as worldwide investors ponder over how the earning season will pan out.
The earning season will be important as will potray fresh clues about the trajectory of the global economy.
In economic data out of Asia, China’s outbound direct investment in March rose 10% from a year earlier to $9.55 billion, said the Ministry of Commerce on Tuesday. In the first quarter, non-financial outbound direct investment dropped 1.14% on year to $25.5 billion, the ministry said.
Meanwhile, the market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market was positive.
DAX (+69, 12090)
FTSE (+35, 7472)
DOW Futures (+94, 26467)
NASDAQ Futures (+33, 7681)
HANG SENG (+291, 30102)
NIKKEI (+53, 22222)
SHANGHAI (+76, 3253)
Nifty (+23, 11620)
Sensex (+380, 39286)
Bank Nifty (+407, 30511)
Well, it’s a bullish day out as Dalal Street trades with conviction on buy side, and the positive takeaway is that the street is unfazed by overbought technical conditions prevailing at our stock markets.
Nifty is trading at day’s high. The gyan mantra is to trade selective on buy side.
Bullish looking BTST trades: ONGC, INDIA CEMENT, ULTRATECH, INDIGO, AXIS BANK, KOTAK BANK, RELIANCE INDUSTRIES, ICICI BANK, M&M, TVS MOTORS, ADANI POWER,
Negative looking STBT trades: INFY, WIPRO, CIPLA.
The positive catalyst which is keeping optimism alive is FIIs remaining in super Buy mode.
Amongst stocks on positive side are: ICICI BANK (+2.78%, 403.65) INFRATEL (+2.25%, 315.40) COAL INDIA (+2.02%, 255.05).
On the negative side are: INFY (-0.77%, 721.90) TATA MOTORS (-0.67%, 230.20) TATA STEEL (-0.56%, 550.05).
Among the sectors indices, all the sectoral indices are trading in green led by Realty, PSE and Auto.
Meanwhile, the Indian rupee is trading lower at 69.62 per dollar versus previous close 69.5275.
DOW FUTURES (+33, 26420)
NASDAQ FUTURES (+10, 7640)
SGX NIFTY (+32, 11769)
NIKKEI (+39, 22208)
HANG SENG (+89, 29899)
SHANGHAI (+14, 3192).
1. The biggest catalyst driving sentiments at Dalal Street are the statements from IMD that monsoon is likely to be near normal this year. lifting worries over the possibility of below-normal rainfall. Monsoon is likely to be 96% of the long period average (LPA).
2. As per Monday’s Provisional Data available on the NSE, FII’s bought shares worth Rs. 713.22 crores while DIIs too bought shares worth Rs. 581.36 crores in the Indian Equity market.
• BULLISH STOCKS: ADANI POWER, ACC, AXIS BANK, ULTRATECH CEMENTS, AMBUJA CEMENTS, ICICI BANK, DIVIS LAB, RELIANCE INDUSTRIES, KOTAK BANK, UFLEX, INDIGO, M&M, POLYPLEX, JK PAPER, INTERNATIONAL PAPER, MANAPPURAM, CENTURY TEXTILE, CHOLAMANDALAM FINANCE
• BEARISH STOCKS: CANFIN HOMES. SRF, PAGE INDUSTRIES, JUBILANT FOODS, SUN PHARMA, INFY.
1. ACC (1673): Buy between 1660-1671 zone. Targets 1723/1801. Stop 1637.
2. AMBUJA CEMENTS (227.45): Buy between 223-226 zone. Targets 235/251. Stop 219.
3. DIVIS LABS (1745): Buy at CMP. Targets 1775/1825. Stop 1691.
All about stocks (Cash Trades):
1. TATA STEEL (CMP 553). Buy between 540-550 zone . Targets 575/621. Stop 527.
2. POLYPLEX (CMP 535): Buy at CMP. Targets 581/621/668. Stop 489.
3. KOTAK BANK (CMP 1374): Buy at CMP. Targets 1421/1551. Stop 1305.
SHOW ME THE MONEY: Buy NIFTY 25th APRIL CE Strike Price 11700 at CMP 100. Profit: Unlimited. Maximum Loss: Rs. 7500. Hold CALL Option till April expiry.
Bulls Vs. Bears: Time to Pick a Side!!
A. Preferred trade on Nifty (11690): Buy between 11641-11655 zone. Targets 11761/11821. Stop 11521.
B. Preferred trade on Bank Nifty (30104): Buy between 29841-29941 zone. Targets 30251/30601. Stop 29551.
• Nifty 25th April Futures ended Monday’s session at a premium of +37 vs +61.
• The 25th April expiry Put- Call Open Interest Ratio was at 1.29 for Nifty whereas it was 1.02 for Bank Nifty.
• The 25th April expiry Put-Call Volume Ratio was at 1.10 for the Nifty and 0.96 for Bank Nifty.
• For Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 12000 Strike Price, followed by 11800 Strike Price for 25th April Series. Unwinding of long positions was seen at strike price 12000.
• Maximum Put Open Interest (OI) was seen at strike price 11000 followed by 11500 strike price for 25th April series. Unwinding of long positions was seen at strike prices 11000-11300.
• For Bank Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 30500 Strike Price and Maximum Put Open Interest stands at 30000 Strike Price.
• As per Monday’s Provisional Data available on the NSE, FII’s bought shares worth Rs. 713.22 crores in the Indian Equity Market. DIIs too bought shares worth Rs. 581.36 crores in the Indian Equity market.
• Long Buildup: COAL INDIA, SAIL, TATA MOTORS, TCS, JINDALSTL.
• Short Buildup: INFY, SUNPHARMA, DCB BANK, HDFC, INFRATEL.
• Short Covering: MOTHERSON, M&M, INDIACEM, HDFCBANK.
• Long Unwinding: UJJIVAN, TITAN, RAMCOCEM, LICHSGFIN.
• Stocks banned in F&O segment for today: DHFL, IDBI, JETAIRWAYS, RPOWER, PC JEWELLER, WOCKPHARMA.
• New In Ban: NIL.
• Out of Ban: DLF.
DOW (-27, 26385)
NASDAQ (-8, 7976)
SGX NIFTY (+9, 11746)
NIKKEI (+67, 22236)
HANG SENG (-56, 29754)
BOVESPA (+208, 93083)
OIL (-0.03, $63.37)
GOLD (-2, $1289)
Global: Neutral.
FII: Positive.
DII: Positive.
F&O: Positive.
Sentiment: Positive.
Nifty’s CURRENT MARKET PRICE: 11,690.
Nifty’s SUPPORT:
Intraday: 11621/11589/11471.
Medium Term: 11,421/11,171.
Long Term: 10,251.
Nifty’s RESISTANCE:
Intraday: 11761/11821.
Medium Term: 11,901/12,001.
Long Term: 12,501.
Nifty’s RANGE:
Intraday: 11,639-11761.
Medium Term: 11,201-11,901.
Long Term: 10,900-12,501.
Nifty’s OUTLOOK
Intraday: Buy on early dips.
Medium Term: Positive.
Long Term: Positive.
Suggests that the benchmark Nifty is most likely to hit its all-time-high at 11761 mark and probably after that only its time worry.
The positive takeaway from yesterday’s trade is that the street is seen focusing on forthcoming earnings and most importantly, the chatter around recession fears look to be a distant memory.
Meanwhile, Nifty’s make-or-break support for today’s trade is at 11589. Below 11589 mark, Nifty likely to slip towards 11471 mark.
Suggests establishing long positions in stocks like KOTAK BANK, ACC, AMBUJA CEMENT & DIVIS LAB on any early weakness.
1. The benchmark Nifty is seen holding tight and is just shy away from its record highs at 11761 mark as investors bank on renewed hopes of U.S-China trade-deal.
2. As per Monday’s Provisional Data available on the NSE, FII’s bought shares worth Rs. 713.22 crores while DIIs too bought shares worth Rs. 581.36 crores in the Indian Equity market.
3. The biggest catalyst driving sentiments at Dalal Street are the statements from IMD that monsoon is likely to be near normal this year. lifting worries over the possibility of below-normal rainfall. Monsoon is likely to be 96% of the long period average (LPA).
4. Wall Street was seen losing ground in Monday’s session as investors were seen less enthusiastic ahead of key earning season which comes into full swing.
5. Polycab India shares to list on bourses today. Polycab India IPO was subscribed 52 times, biggest since HDFC AMC. Polycab is the first issue of 2019 to see subscription of 10 times or more.
Outlook for Tuesday: Buy on any early declines.
