Markets Update: February 21, 2019 – Today’s action in the Markets

16:00 Hrs: Latest After the Closing Bell

Nifty (+55, 10807): Dalal Street extended gains, spreading wave of green for the second straight session.

As regards tomorrow’s trade, Bulls will get more confidence if Nifty moves above its key hurdles at 10809 mark. Above 10809, we believe the bears will get completely knocked down in the ring.

Rising crude oil prices are the only negative catalysts for our markets and bears can hang on their hopes. Long story short: The bears’ case crumbles above Nifty 10809 mark.

Now before we sign off for the day, let’s look at major instruments:

4.00 PM GLOBAL UPDATE:

DOW Futures (+0.17, 26016)
NASDAQ Futures (+0.26, 7083)
DAX (+0.09, 11427)
FTSE (-0.64, 7180)

OIL (-0.40, $66.83)
GOLD (+0.51, $1333)
DOLLAR INDEX (+0.14, 96.43)
COPPER (-0.59,455)

How Asia fared today:

HANG SENG (+0.41, 28629)
NIKKEI (+0.15, 21464)
SHANGHAI (-0.34, 2751)

Nifty (+55, 10807)
Sensex (+142, 35898)
Bank Nifty (+97, 27115)
SGX NIFTY (+54, 10789)
USD/INR (-0.04, 71.15)

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15:00 Hrs: Where’s the clever money going at 3 PM?

Nifty (+51, 10787): Bulls likely to be in the driver’s seat in tomorrow’s session as well.

That’s because Nifty’s advances are in line with Morning Star Pattern, the indices have extended gains. At the time of writing, all the sectoral indices were seen trading in green.

One could switch on to the aggressive mode after Nifty surpasses the 10809 mark.

Probable BTST/STBT trades:

Bullish looking BTST stocks: HAVELLS, SRF, KOTAK BANK, BANK NIFTY, ONGC & BAJAJ FINSERV

Negative looking STBT stocks: INFRATEL, YES BANK, INFY, COAL INDIA.

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14:30 Hrs: Life at Dalal Street after Europe’s Opening Bell

(Nifty 10785, Up 49 points): Nifty advances in line with Morning Star Pattern.
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Looks like a strong positive close for 2nd time in row, our stock markets are spreading a wave of green. Bulls seem to have gained confidence to fight and knock down the bears in the ring.
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The benchmark indices are trading higher in afternoon deals, led by gains in RIL, ICICI Bank, HDFC, TCS and Hindustan Unilever (HUL). Metal stocks have continued to rally supported by PSU Banks both rising beyond 1.2% today.
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Considering rising crude oil prices being a negative catalyst for the markets, the markets have been strong to overpower it and keep up the gains abreast.
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Expect stock specific buying and bargain hunting to be the most preferred theme with traders. Stay long!
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Meanwhile, Asian stocks rose following a listless day on Wall Street and ahead of US-Chinese negotiations aimed at ending a tariffs battle. European markets are mixed today.
DAX (+40, 11443)
FTSE (-33, 7204)
DOW Futures (+0.28, 26045)
NASDAQ Futures (+0.29,7083)
HANG SENG (+0.30, 28618)
NIKKEI (+0.32, 20900)
SHANGHAI (-0.34, 2751)
Nifty (+49, 10785)
Sensex (+160, 35915)
Bank Nifty (+88, 27109)

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12:00 Hrs: Dalal Street’s Top Stories at Midday

(Nifty 10766, UP 31 points): In line with our positive bias, Benchmark indices continue soaring after a wait and watch opening, buying follows through. Today being 2nd upmove for the markets is turning up the sentiments on positive side.

Nifty moving above 10809 to trigger stronger positivity. So until then and at this juncture, a prudent strategy would be to stay light. All Benchmark stock indices at US, Europe and Asian markets seen in the green. That seems to lift up Indian Market sentiments too.

Amongst sectoral indices, most of the indices are in green except auto sector lagging behind by 0.35% with maximum gain visible in NSE Media, NSE Metal and NSE PSU Banks which are up 0.95%, 0.86% and 0.83% respectively.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market is positive.

NSE Advances 32 to NSE declines 18 is positive.

The NSE Mid-Cap index is Up 0.42% at 5,865. The NSE Small-Cap index is Up 0.74% at 5,788.

INDIA VIX index representing volatility is down: 16.40 (-3.84%).

On the Positive side: IBULHSGFIN at 660 (+2.4%), ICICIBANK at 353 (+2.33%), VEDL at 163.75 (+2.18%) are in green.

On the flip side: INFRATEL at 307 (-3.23%), Maruti at 6760 (-1.31%) & BHARTIARTL at 305 (-1.29%).

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11:00 Hrs: Pursue Opportunities in commodities

Attention squarely on U.S.-China trade talks. Crude-oil zooms, looks to to test $ 60 mark soon on U.S.-China trade talk progress, signs of falling crude output from Saudi & OPEC cuts.

Copper too manages a spectacular rebound.

Gold (-0.34%, 1343): Interweek Strategy: Buy between 1333-1337 zone, targeting 1351-1368 zone and then aggressive targets at 1389 with stop below 1299.

MCX Gold (-0.33%, 33758). Interweek strategy: Buy between 33651-33701 zone, targeting 34200 and then at 34751-35001 zone with stop at 33150.

Silver (-0.99%, 16.017): Interweek Strategy: Buy between 15.75-15.87 zone, targeting 16.15 zone and then at 16.71-16.75 zone with stop below 15.27.

MCX Silver (-0.84%, 40549): Interweek strategy: Buy on dips between 40350-40401 zone, targeting 40721 mark and then aggressive targets at 41400 zone with stop at 40150.

Crude Oil (+0.31%, 57.47). Interweek strategy: Establish buy positions at CMP targeting 59 and then finally at 62 zone with strict stop at 54.

MCX Crude Oil (+0.15%, 4094). Interweek strategy: Buy between 3901-3925 zone, targeting 4076 mark and then aggressive targets at 4250-4315 zone with stop at 3771.

Copper (+1.67%, 6351): Progress in U.S-China trade truce key positive catalyst.
MCX Copper (-0.22%, 457): Interweek strategy: Establish buy positions between 442.50-446 zone, targeting 461 mark and then aggressive targets at 475-481 zone with stop at 434.

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10:00 Hrs: Nifty’s Crucial Levels at 10 AM

Nifty’s (-8, 10727): Nifty bulls still seen holding ground.

Nifty’s hurdles seen at 10809 and then next at 10921 mark. The biggest interweek support for Nifty now seen at 10583 mark. Intraday support at 10689.

What Technical Tells Us On Nifty:

Nifty’s KEY SUPPORTS: 10689/10641/10583.

Nifty’s KEY HURDLE: 10809/10921.

Nifty’s INTRADAY RANGE: 10688-10788.
Nifty’s OUTLOOK FOR THE DAY: Consolidation day likely. Positive bias. Buy on dips.

The Indian rupee opened marginally higher at 71.03 per dollar v/s Wednesday’s close 71.18.

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09:30 Hrs: Make Informed Decisions

(Nifty: +16, 10752): In early action, the benchmark Nifty opened slightly positive, atleast it did not open in the red after yesterday’s stellar run up. PSU Banks hand-holding the NIFTY to take it higher, and the theme for the day could be PSU banks.

Nifty’s hurdles seen at 10809 mark and then at 10921 mark. Nifty’s interweek support seen at 10583 mark.

Amongst stocks on positive side are: ONGC (+1.35%, 146) SUNPHARMA (+1.04%, 426) ULTRACEMCO (+0.86%, 3604).

On the negative side are: Infosys (-1.36%, 730) BHARTIARTL (-1.28%, 305) INFRATEL (-1.16%, 314).

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09:00 Hrs: What Caught our Eye at 9 AM?

SGX Nifty is indicating a pause, but we suspect the bulls will pick up the positive baton from yesterday’s trade. The good thing is that the needle is pointing on the positive side.

DOW FUTURES (+58, 26032)
NASDAQ FUTURES (+16, 7089)
SGX NIFTY (-22, 10745)
NIKKEI (-29, 21403)
HANG SENG (+104, 28624)
SHANGHAI (+11, 2772).

STOCKS TO WATCH:

• BULLISH STOCKS: REC, PFC, RELAINCE INDUSTRIES, UPL, OIL INDIA, DLF, BATA, Dr. LAL PATH LABS, ASIAN PAINTS, TATA STEEL, TEAMLEASE, PI INDUSTRIES.

• BEARISH STOCKS: HPCL, IOC, ACC, AMBUJA CEMENTS, CUMMINS, KSCL, MCX, NALCO.

• SHOW ME THE MONEY: BUY PFC (CMP 109) PFC is seen signaling a breakout from a probable ‘higher consolidation zone’ on daily charts. Key interweek support seen at 99. Strength seen above 110. Interweek Strategy: Buy between 106-108 zone, targeting 110 zone and then aggressive targets at 117.50 zone. Stop below 102.45.

If you are from long term investors’ camp; then should recall Mr. Spock’s infamous line “a difference that makes no difference is not a difference”.

The bottom line? These days, there are plenty of things to worry about in near term at Dalal Street. But the timing of timing of tremors related to geopolitical tensions is probably not one of them, if you are long term buy-and-hold investor.

We say so because; it will be a cakewalk for Indian investors as sentiments are bound to be uplifted, on any hints with regards to BJP getting re-elected or any amicable resolution between U.S-China trade truce bring back global economies in growth trajectory.

Cash Trades :

Buy MONTECARLO at 390.05 Targets : 395.1 / 400.15 Stop Loss – 385

Buy WEBELSOLAR at 28.8 Targets : 30.4 / 32 Stop Loss – 27.2

Buy JINDALSTEL at 149.8 Targets : 155.8 / 161.8 Stop Loss – 143.8

Bulls Vs. Bears: Time to Pick a Side!!

There is no reason to panic as the trading screen suggests that bulls will aim to regroup and defend 10583 mark.

Preferred trade on Nifty (10735): Buy between 10675-10691 zone, targeting 10801 and then aggressive targets at 10901-10921 zone with strict stop at 10571.

Preferred trade on Bank Nifty (26962): The biggest near term supports at 26381. Confirmation of strength only above 27751. Buy at CMP, targeting 27251 and then at 27551-27751 zone and finally at 28000 mark with strict stop at 26381.

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08:00 Hrs: Calculus Derivatives Corner

Markets Update: February 21, 2019 – Today’s action in the Markets

Market Summary:

• Nifty 28th February Futures ended Wednesday’s session at a premium of +21 against +10.

• The Put- Call Open Interest Ratio was at 1.03 for Nifty whereas it was 1.24 for Bank Nifty.

• The Put-Call Volume Ratio was at 0.97 for the Nifty and 0.73 for Bank Nifty.

• For Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 11000 Strike Price, followed by 10800 Strike Price for 28th February Series. Short covering was seen at strike prices 10500-10800.

Maximum Put Open Interest (OI) was seen at strike price 10400 followed by 10700 strike price for 28th February series. Short buildup was seen at strike prices 10300-10700.

• For Bank Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 28000 Strike Price and Maximum Put Open Interest stands at 28000 Strike Price.

• As per Wednesday’s Provisional Data available on the NSE, FII’s bought shares worth Rs. 713.47 crores in the Indian Equity Market. DIIs too bought shares worth Rs. 113.27 crores in the Indian Equity market.

Long Buildup: PFC, REC, AUROPHARMA, HCLTECH.

Short Buildup: JUBLFOO, HUL, TVSMOTOR, DIVIS.

Short Covering: RELIANCE, YES BANK, INFY, HDFC, TCS.

Long Unwinding: PAGE, PVR, REPCO.

• Stocks banned in F&O segment for today: ADANI ENT, IDBI, JETAIRWAYS, KSCL, PC JEWELLER, RELCAP, RELIANCE INFRA, RPOWER.

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07:30 Hrs: Audio Podcast

Here is an Audio Podcast for you to know the pulse of the Market on the Go!!

07:00 Hrs: Know What Matters at Dalal Street at 7 AM!!

Markets Update: February 21, 2019 – Today’s action in the Markets

SGX Nifty in early action is pushing lower suggesting that our stock markets will open near the break-even line.

7 AM GLOBAL UPDATE:

DOW (+63, 25954)
NASDAQ (+2, 7489)
SGX NIFTY (-33, 10734)
NIKKEI (-104, 21328)
HANG SENG (-49, 28465)
BOVESPA (-1114, 96545)

OIL (-014, $57.10)
GOLD (-7, $1341)

SUCCESSFUL INVESTING IS ANTICIPATING THE TRENDS OF:

Global: Positive.
FII: Positive.
DII: Positive.
F&O: Positive.
‪Sentiment: Buy on dips.

NIFTY’s CRUCIAL LEVELS:

Nifty’s CMP: 10,735.

Nifty’s SUPPORT:
Intraday: 10689/10641.
Medium Term: 10,583/10,333.
Long Term: 9,951.

Nifty’s RESISTANCE:
Intraday: 10809/10921.
Medium Term: 11,001/11,125.
Long Term: 11,751.

Nifty’s RANGE:
Intraday: 10,689-10789.
Medium Term: 10,501-11,125.
Long Term: 9950-11,725.

Nifty’s OUTLOOK:
Intraday: Positive.
Medium Term: Neutral.
Long Term: Positive.

Our call of the day suggests Nifty should move towards 10809 mark in near term brushing aside any negative news as an aberration. The said modest relief rally has a good chance to find decent buyers as bulls will aim to keep optimism alive and shake off the sour news on the border tension which has been gripping our stock markets since last Thursday on wake of terrorist attack in Pulwana, Kashmir.

Both, the FIIs and the DIIs camp were net buyers in yesterday’s trade.

Also, boosting trading sentiments at Dalal Street would be the government’s approval of recapitalization of Rs 48,239 crore in 12 public sector bank. This decision is welcome and quite positive as it comes at a time when NBFCs are facing liquidity issue, and most importantly, the capital will help banks to be out of PCA norms so that lending can pick up and increase market share of public sector banks specially the recent banks which have exited PCA.

If you recollect, the government in December 2018 had infused Rs 28,615 crore into seven public sector.

Technically speaking and judging by yesterday’s stellar price action at Dalal Street, the benchmark Nifty will aim to move above 10809 mark to fuel further optimism. Nifty’s Jan 2019 lows at 10,583 should act as crucial support from here on. This bull market should be given the benefit of the doubt as long as Nifty stays above 10583.

Our chart of the day suggests establishing long positions in stocks like UPL, RELIANCE INDUSTRIES and REC with interweek perspective.

IMPORTANT THEMES FOR THE DAY:

• Oil continues to trade firm on Saudi and OPEC cuts, now at $56 a barrel.

• Bulls came to life in yesterday’s trade as the benchmark Sensex snapped a 9-day winning streak while Nifty snapped a 8-day losing streak.

The big question: Can the bulls keep it up?

Stepping back and reviewing yesterday’s trade, the surge can be attributed to short covering and bargain hunting as trade-talk euphoria was seen as key positive catalyst.

So, all the more reason to pay attention to talks between U.S and Chinese negotiators that are aimed at ending a trade war between the world’s largest economies.

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