Bihar has been a cauldron of castes and creeds but once in a blue moon it transcends these divisions when it is propelled by a wave. In the Lok Sabha elections last year, there was an unmistakable Narendra Modi wave that swept people off their feet as the BJP made governance and development its messages of hopes.
This time in the State assembly polls due in September-October there is a huge effort to defeat the BJP and there are permutations and combinations aimed at achieving that and capitalizing on the fact that there is disappointment writ large over unfulfilled promises.
The Congress has been down and out for quite some time but with Rahul Gandhi going all out now, there is something for the party to prove.
For a limited resurrection the Congress has a few options—to go into a three-way alliance with the Janata Dal (U) of Nitish Kumar and the RJD of Lalu Yadav, to have an arrangement with only Nitish and jettison Lalu, and to go it alone. Lalu Yadav has been anathema to Rahul Gandhi and past experience has been that in sharing of seats he leaves only some crumbs for the Congress . Rahul is instead banking on Nitish Kumar but it remains to be seen if he would manage to extract a good deal from him.
Clearly, as alliances go, the RJD-Janata Dal (U) tie-up could be formidable. But Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav have long been bitter rivals and there is gaping trust deficit between them. There already are indications that they would run into a major roadblock when it comes to seat sharing.
Nitish is indeed wary of Lalu and may be better inclined to try out an arrangement with the Congress, hoping that Rahul’s fresh plunge may help the Congress and that he would be the senior partner in any JD (U)-Congress deal.
With the Mahadalits now alienated from Nitish with the raw treatment their leader Jitan Ram Manjhi got from him, this vote bank will now bargain with the BJP on the one hand and with Lalu Yadav on the other for its 11 per cent votes.
One consequence of Nitish’s break with Lalu would be that the State’s 16 per cent Muslim vote would get divided to the benefit of the BJP.
All in all, it is a complicated scenario with the BJP still holding an edge in alliance with the LJP of Ram Bilas Paswan. Only a re-marriage of convenience between Lalu, Nitish and the Congress can take the honours away from the BJP which appears a difficult proposition.
