Maharashtra's political scenario has been unpredictable for the past few weeks. While the swearing-in ceremony of Devendra Fadnavis as chief minister and Ajit Pawar as deputy chief minister stunned everyone. Sharad Pawar's NCP and the Congress fought together while the BJP and Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena teamed up to fight against each other.
"Maharashtra needed a stable government, not a khichidi shaasan (mishmash government)," Fadnavis said after being sworn in as Chief Minister for the second time, adding that the Shiv Sena "did not follow people's mandate". "I thank NCP and Ajit Pawar for supporting us," he added, on a deputy he had often criticised for corruption."
"From the day the results were announced to this day.... no party was able to form the government. Maharashtra was facing many issues, including farmer issues. So we decided to form a stable government," Fadnavis said.
While BJP is claiming to have enough numbers to prove that the Fadnavis government majority in Maharashtra Assembly, even Opposition is not backing down. The Opposition has claimed that they have the support of 165 MLAs. The Shiv Sena-NCP-Congress, an alliance known as 'Maha Vikas Aghadi', the post-poll alliance formed by the three parties, has demanded a floor test for the Fadnavis-Pawar government. The Opposition has already filed a petition in court. While the apex court is still yet to deliver its judgment, here's a look at a few scenarios of the floor test.
The floor test is certain:
The Supreme Court in its landmark judgment in SR Bommai, had laid that a principle that the trust vote on the floor of the house is the ultimate test to know if a government enjoys majority or not. While the Fadnavis-Pawar government has already been formed, they cannot run away from the floor test.
MLAs boycott floor test:
While Ajit Pawar clearly defected if the official line of the NCP, there are speculations that a sizeable number of MLAs may boycott or stay away from the floor test.
Ajit Pawar had been the main managing man of NCP for the last past five-seven years. He also played a key role in the selection of the NCP candidates. But he or Sharad Pawar both can't run-away the fact that MLAs may boycott or stay absent during the floor test.
Maharashtra Assembly strength can be lowered:
If NCP or a sizeable number of its MLAs boycott the floor test, the effective strength of Maharashtra Assembly may come to as low as 288-54 = 234. So, the half-way mark also changes to 118, which can mean the BJP has more chances of sitting on the throne.
A repeat of Karnataka assembly:
The BJP has said to already reaching out to 29 MLAs, Independent, and smaller parties, except the four members of the AIMIM and the Samajwadi Party. The saffron party has also told those who crossed over to the BJP from other parties have been roped in to get in touch with the MLAs of their former parties and seek their support during the floor test. This opens the ground for mass-scale defection or en mass resignation the way it happened in Karnataka. The MLAs were held disqualified later in Karnataka but back then the Speaker was a JDS member while the BJP had managed the number.
The Speaker
The Speaker is yet to be elected, which can only happen after MLAs have been administered an oath. The oath to MLAs can only be administered by a pro-tem Speaker and this only possible when a session Maharashtra Assembly is convened. The Supreme Court will play a pivotal role in this, where former Attorney General Mukul Rohatgi, appearing for the governor asserted that the judiciary cannot overrule the constitutional process for holding a floor test. The apex court is supposed to be delivering its judgment on Tuesday morning.
The BJP won 105 seats in the Maharashtra Assembly election that it contested with the Shiv Sena, which got 56 seats; the NCP won 54 seats and the Congress 44. There are 29 MLAs who won as either Independents or as candidates of smaller parties.
