Congress not prepared to sacrifice its vote base in Mumbai for MVA

All the leaders of the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) have been vowing that they would put up a united face in the forthcoming elections. However, the Congress appears to be not ready to sacrifice its vote base in Mumbai for the MVA.

City Lok Sabha seats likely to be new issue of contention

Earlier, a group within the Congress had opined that the party should go solo in the BMC elections. Though the party leaders have been able to silence the group and are vouching for posing a ‘united front’ in order to defeat the BJP, it appears now that the Lok Sabha seats in the city are likely to be the new contentious issue in the grand alliance of the opposition parties.

Survey shows Sena leading followed by Congress

At present, the Shiv Sena (UBT) holds three Lok Sabha seats in the city. The MVA is contemplating to field VBA leader Adv Prakash Ambedkar from one of the seats in Mumbai. To make the problem complicated, the Congress too has staked claim on three of the six seats in the city.

The logic behind Congress being more assertive in Mumbai is a survey that the party has recently conducted. The survey shows that Shiv Sena (UBT) is likely to emerge at the top followed closely by the Congress in Mumbai if the elections are to be conducted now.

Mumbai demographics

Mumbai has around 31% Marathi voters, 26% North Indians, 13% Gujaratis, 13% Muslims and 14% Dalits voters of which 9% are neo Buddhists. Given the split within Shiv Sena, the Marathi, North Indian and Gujarati votes are likely to have a four way split between BJP, MNS and two factions of Shiv Sena. Also, there has been hardly any significant difference between the Congress and the Shiv Sena’s vote share over the past couple of elections. Hence, a group within city Congress argued that it will have to contest separately in BMC if it has to keep its vote bank in the city intact. The same logic applies to the new demand for three Lok Sabha seats that is being raised within the party now.

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