New Delhi : After the scorching heat, which is squeezing out every bit of energy, you have been adequately warned on ministerial authority: that please do not expect ‘‘Achche Din,” when it rains. The monsoon has a date with Kerala on June 5th that would mark its onset, but the prognosis is depressing.
Union minister for earth sciences Harsh Vardhan has said that after the preparation of the second stage long range forecast of monsoon there are indications that rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be deficient with 88± 4% of Long Period Average. Earlier, the prediction was that it would be 93 percent.
He was speaking after dedicating the country’s high performance computing facility — named “Bhaskara” — at the National Centre for Medium Range Forecasting.
Highlighting the cause for worry, he said: “I am a man of science and cannot be blind to the fact that both the south-west and north-east monsoons failed in 2014. For 2015, the IMD’s prediction of an overall 93 percent probability of a weak monsoon is a worrying cause for all of us. The onset has been delayed by a week already and there is no certainty as to when the ideal parameters will be in place for the monsoon to arrive.”
“So, let us not fool ourselves that there is no connection between the unusual number of deaths from the ongoing heat wave and the certainty of another failed monsoon,” he added.
Harsh Vardhan also emphasised that the manifestations of climate change cannot be overlooked and observed that the ongoing extreme heat situation and back-to-back deficient monsoon phenomenon are its sure signs.
The same prediction of a deficient monsoon came from the Indian Meteorological Department and its region wise predictions are not good with the season rainfall likely to be 85% of Long Period Average (LPA) over North-West India, 90% of LPA over Central India, 92% of LPA over South Peninsula and 90% of LPA over North-East India all with a model error of ± 8 %.
