Congress party, which has been repeating the phrase “Apna time ayega” (our time will come) suddenly sees it coming with BJP launching Shankar Lalwani as its candidate from Indore seat. Considering BJP candidate Shankar Lalwani as weak, Congress is hoping to wrest the seat which has been represented by senior BJP leader Sumitra Mahajan since 1989.
But Congress candidate Pankaj Sanghvi has lost several elections before and his past records can depress him. Assembly elections, held four months ago, had levelled the field in Indore Lok Sabha seat with both rival parties securing four seats each. While Congress won in Indore- 1, Rau, Sanwer and Depalpur, the BJP won in Indore- 2, Indore-3, Indore-4 and Indore-5 assembly segments.
Congress, which won all three rural seats think that rural voters will favour its candidate Pankaj Sanghvi. Sanghvi too is focusing on rural areas as he hopes to cover gap of urban and rural areas through it. The margin of BJP’s win in urban areas especially Indore- 2 and Indore-4 was more than the total margin of all Congress MLAs’ win. Here is assembly constituency- wise analysis.
INDORE-1
Indore 1 was bastion of Congress, which BJP penetrated and won the seat consecutively three times. In 2018, Congress managed to get the seat back from BJP and Sanjay Shukla is MLA now. The margin of Shukla’s win was only 8163 against his opponent Sudarshan Gupta. Congress is in good position from this constituency and if Congress repeats same performance or even increases margin to 10,000, then too, the party will have to worry about results.
INDORE-2
Indore 2 is BJP bastion and Ramesh Mendola has won the seat with highest number of votes in the state twice. He had won the election in 2018 with 71011 votes, which was many times higher than the margin win of all the Congress MLAs in Indore. Congress doesn’t want to repeat it in this election.
INDORE-3
BJP had won seat by a margin of 5751 votes and it was a tough tussle between Congress Ashwin Joshi and BJPs Akash Vijayvargiya. If Congress believes it can take lead from this seat, the margin would not be more than the margin by which it lost.
INDORE-4
Congress leaders do not hope to get lead from this constituency as mayor Malini Gaud won assembly election with 49,090 votes in 2018. Moreover, it is also an area with sizeable Sindhi population and BJP believes that to increase the margin, having Shankar Lalwani, a Sindhi, will help. Even after sabotage in community, it is hard for Congress to cover the margin gap.
INDORE-5
This is a strong area for Congress as BJP MLA Mahendra Hardia had won election only with 1132 votes. Sanghvi can be assured of win in this area due to party’s performance, large number of Muslim voters and his own preparations from the area. Sanghvi can expect lead from this area.
RAU
Rau is home of Congress leader and sports minister Jitu Patwari. However, Patwari had faced tough fight from his opponent Madhu Verma and could win by margin of 5703 votes. Congress can expect same results due to influence of Patwari.
DEPALPUR
Congress snatched this seat from BJP. Congress party’s Vishal Patel has won the seat with 9044 votes. Patel has influence in the area and also having hardcore followers due to which Sanghvi can expect to get lead from this area as well.
SANWER
Sanwer is home of Congress MLA and minister of health Tulsi Silawat. Congress has won by 2945 votes and if the party can perform better than the assembly elections, then too, it is tough to cover overall margin created due to Indore 2 and Indore 4.