Lucknow: In UP’s ‘Wild West,’ 58 seats in 11 districts would vote on Thursday in the first round of the Assembly election that may have an impact beyond the territories of the State.
For the last one decade, these seats have been a stronghold of the BJP and laid the foundation of an epic saffron victory in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha and 2017 assembly elections.
However, this time the ruling dispensation will find it hard to tame the state’s ‘Wild West.’ The strategic alliance between the Samajwadi Party and the Rashtriya Lok Dal in the Jat dominated belt will be a tough nut to crack, given the simmering issue of non-payment of cane dues. The BJP has made belated amends in its manifesto by promising to clear these dues in 14 days, but the trust deficit between the farming community and the ruling dispensation will surely come into play.
The yearlong agitation of farmers, which ended with the repeal of farm laws, too will cast its shadow on the polls.
However, the BJP is banking on religious polarization to offset the waning clout, with its leaders incessantly raising the issue of migration from Kairana; the decade-old Muzaffarnagar riots; and lawlessness during the previous opposition regime.
The BJP had raised the issue of migration from Kairana due to the alleged hooliganism of Muslim community in 2014 Parliament elections and succeeded in securing most of the seats in the belt.
Since then it has been stoking the dying embers of this issue in almost every election. No wonder both Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath undertook a door-to-door campaign in Kairana, reminding people of the forced migration.
Besides, in every poll meeting the BJP leaders have rekindled the memories of the 2013 riots in Muzaffarnagar, which had the Jats and the Muslims at loggerheads. But the farm movement has once again brought the Jat and Muslim voter together on the same platform, as both are agrarian and have common problems.
In the 58 seats going to poll, the Jats are 17 per cent and the Muslims constitute 27 per cent of the population.
Another important community of the region – the Gujjars – who constitute four per cent of the population, too, are miffed with the ruling BJP.
A Jat and Muslim combo might, therefore, spell doom for the BJP whose expectations of recapturing UP are rooted in this region.
Analysts add that a visibly weak Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) cannot be underestimated. Of the total five seats won by the opposition from this region in the 2017 Assembly polls, two were cornered by the BSP; more importantly, it was second in 19 seats. With 18 per cent Dalits in these 58 seats, the BSP might pose a challenge to others in over a dozen seats.
Many of the poster boys of BJP’s Hindutva politics are in the fray in the first phase. These include the Muzaffarnagar-riot accused Sangeet Som, who is contesting from Sardhana, and Suresh Rana from Thana Bhawan assembly segments. The fate of State energy minister Srikanat Sharma from Mathura and Defense Minister Rajnath Singh’s son Pankaj Singh from Noida would also be sealed on Thursday.
In the 2017 assembly polls, the BJP had made a clean sweep of these seats, winning 52 out of 58. The lone RLD legislator, too, had later switched loyalties to join the BJP, taking its tally to 53. In the Parliament elections of 2014 & 2019, too, the BJP had made experienced a landslide win. It had won all the seats in
six districts Ghaziabad, Noida, Muzaffarnagar, Bulandshaher, Aligarh and Agra.
Districts 11, Seats 58
Shamli (Seats 3)
Meerut (seats 7)
Baghpat (Seats 3)
Hapur (Seats 3)
Mathura (Seats 5)
Ghaziabad (Seats 5)
Noida (Seats 3)
Muzaffarnagar (Seats 7)
Bulandshaher (Seats 7)
Aligarh (Seats 7)
Agra (Seats 9)
10853 polling station
26027 polling booths
Number of Candidates 623 (73 Women)
------------------------------------------------------
Voters (Religion & Caste wise)
Jat--- 17%
Muslim---- 27%
Rajpoot --- 8%
Dalit ----- 18%
Gujjar ---- 4%
