The ongoing political tussle in Rajasthan is essentially a numbers’ game.
While Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot claims to enjoy the unstinted support of his group, Deputy Chief Minister Sachin Pilot claims to have enough MLAs in his kitty to play a spoiler.
But how do the numbers really stack up in the 200-seat Rajasthan Assembly? The Congress (along with 6 BSP MLAs who have merged with the party) has a tally of 107. The Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), which has a pre poll alliance with the Congress, has one seat.
The BJP has 72 seats and its ally, the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP), has 3 seats. The CPM has 2, the BTP has 2, while there are 13 independents in the house.
The magical number needed to form a government is 101. The Congress, along with the RLD and the independents, has a tally of 120. The BJP and its ally RLP have a cumulative tally of 75.
Sachin Pilot is claiming that he has the support of 30 MLAs and if they resign then it leaves the house with 170 members, bringing the numbers required for majority to 86.
So once the Congress number diminishes by 30, they are reduced to 77, which is 9 short of majority. On the other hand, the BJP and the RLP have 75 seats which is 11 short of majority. With the BTP deciding to abstain, the onus of providing the required numbers to attain majority falls on independents. They are largely with the Congress.
If one takes a look at the numbers from the recently concluded Rajya Sabha polls – the Congress had got 123 votes. This is when two of its MLAs had not voted due hospitalisation. On the other hand, the BJP had got 74 votes, as one of its votes had been rejected.