Should parliamentary elections take place in the present time, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, would maintain its hold on power with a substantial majority of 306 seats, as indicated by the India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey.
The survey arrives at a pivotal juncture, coinciding with heightened political activity from both the ruling party and the opposition, prompted by the imminent major assembly elections scheduled for the end of this year, followed by the General elections in the first half of 2024.
In response to the formidable election machinery of the BJP, prominent opposition parties have set aside their differences and united. This coalition, known as INDIA, aims to present a unified opposition candidate against the BJP's nominee on a majority of the constituencies.
Despite the collaborative efforts of the opposition, the current scenario suggests that their impact has been limited. The MOTN survey reveals the NDA's dominance in the upcoming general elections, with the INDIA alliance trailing as a distant second.
Key Findings from India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation Survey:
1) NDA Maintains Strong Hold: The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is projected to retain power with a significant majority of 306 seats, as per the survey results.
2) NDA's Lead Over INDIA: The survey underscores the NDA's dominance, surpassing the crucial 272-seat threshold required for forming a government. The NDA is expected to secure 306 seats, while the opposition's INDIA alliance is predicted to attain 193 seats, with other parties projected to secure 44 seats.
3) Vote Share Distribution: In terms of vote distribution, the Mood of the Nation survey reveals that if elections were held at the current time, the NDA would secure 43 percent of the votes, while the INDIA alliance would capture 41 percent of the votes.
4) BJP's Projected Seats: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is anticipated to secure 287 seats in the parliament, surpassing the 272-seat requirement for a simple majority by a margin of 15 seats. In contrast, the Congress is predicted to attain 74 seats.
5) PM Modi's Popularity: A significant 52 percent of participants expressed support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi winning a third term, reflecting his enduring popularity.
6) Satisfaction with Modi's Performance: The survey indicates that 63 percent of respondents expressed contentment with Narendra Modi's tenure as Prime Minister. This figure slightly decreased from a previous survey, where 72 percent indicated satisfaction.
7) Varied Views on Performance: The survey revealed diverse opinions on PM Modi's performance, with 13 percent categorizing it as 'average' and 22 percent finding it 'poor'. A portion of respondents remained undecided.
8) Reasons for Voting BJP: The Mood of the Nation poll showed that 44 percent of respondents were inclined to vote for the Bharatiya Janata Party in the 2024 elections, primarily due to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's presence. Development and Hindutva were secondary reasons for supporting the BJP, though less frequently cited.
9) Challenges for Mahayuti Coalition: If Lok Sabha elections were held in Maharashtra, the Mahayuti coalition (BJP+ Shiv Sena (Shinde) + Ajit Pawar group) faces the possibility of a significant decline in seats compared to their performance in the previous elections. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Shiv Sena and BJP alliance secured victory in 41 constituencies. However, the upcoming 2024 elections might see Mahayuti experiencing a notable setback, potentially losing up to 21 seats. The Mahavikas Aghadi (Congress+ NCP+ Shiv Sena UBT) could potentially attain a higher total of 28 seats in the upcoming elections.
10) Vote share distribution: In terms of vote distribution, Mahayuti could potentially secure 40 percent of the votes in Maharashtra. In contrast, the Mahavikas Aghadi is expected to garner 45 percent of the votes.