Bengaluru: The HD Kumaraswamy-led JD(S)-Congress alliance was reduced to a minority on Monday as two Independent MLAs and ministers, H Nagesh and R Shankar, switched over to the BJP.
As the coalition government found itself on political ventilator, all the 21 Congress ministers and nine JDS ministers resigned from the Cabinet voluntarily, hoping that the 14 rebels who had resigned would walk in and accept the bait.
Technically speaking, Karnataka now has a one-man cabinet in Kumaraswamy. But the rebels remained adamant and said they would not withdraw their resignations, even as backroom talks gained momentum. Even so, Congress MLA from Bidar North, Rahim Mahmood Khan, threatened to resign from the Assembly.
All eyes are now on Speaker KR Ramesh Kumar who would ''report'' for duty on Tuesday. He is expected to take time in dealing with the resignation of the MLAs. Sources said he will call the MLAs and ascertain the reasons for the resignation.
But he has very few options. Whether he accepts the resignations of the 14 MLAs or decides to keep them on hold, the BJP now has the majority and the coalition would collapse on the floor of the Assembly which is to meet on Friday.
Meanwhile, in a late evening development, the dissident MLAs left Mumbai for Goa. As of late in the night, the JD(S)-Congress coalition's total strength, after Nagesh and Shankar withdrew their support, stood at 116 (Congress-78, JD(S)-37, BSP-1), besides the Speaker.
The BJP has 105 MLAs in the House, where the half-way mark is 113. If the resignations of the MLAs are accepted by the Speaker, the coalition's tally will be reduced to 104. The BJP will thus get an upper hand with 107.
As the drama played out, JD(S) MLAs were transported to the Prestige Golfshire Club on the outskirts of Bengaluru. Said former Chief Minister and BJP leader BS Yeddyurappa:
"Two independent MLAs met the Governor and gave a letter that they'll support BJP. Now, we're 105 + 2 = 107. Even when they've lost the majority, Kumaraswamy is claiming that we have the numbers. People are observing everything. Let us see and wait."
So, what lies ahead? The recent developments could see the Congress-JD(S) lose majority in the assembly. There is a remote possibility of a revamped Congress-JD(S) government retaining power, if it can manage to get at least two MLAs back.
But as of now, the numbers are heavily stacked against the Congress-JD(S) government. One possibility is that before Friday Assembly session, the Congress-JD(S) coalition would try to retain power with a radically different looking government.
The 13 rebel MLAs would be asked to take back their resignations and would be placated by being offered cabinet positions. Kumarswamy too may pave the way for a Congress CM, probably senior rebel leader Ramalinga Reddy.
The next possibility is that with the BJP going one up in the number game, the party would press for a vote in the Assembly. The HDK government would fall and the BJP would stake claim to form a government.
Yet another possibility is that the BJP may not stake claim to form a government after the collapse of the HDK government but would force the Governor to recommend fresh elections.
The next few days would be interesting as the ‘nataka’ in Karnataka reaches the climax.
