Bengaluru: If the exit polls hold true for Karnataka, where the BJP is set for a big sweep, the days of the JD(S)-Congress coalition government would be numbered. Almost all seven exit polls announced on Sunday have predicted a big win for the BJP in Karnataka while the Congress-JD(S) coalition may win only in single digit.
In 2014, the Congress had won 9 seats, while the BJP and JD(S) had bagged 17 and 2 seats respectively in the state. The exit poll result, if it holds, has three messages: the BJP is able to solidly retain its voter base that it had in the last
Assembly elections; secondly, there has not been a transfer of Congress votes in many constituencies to the JD(S) and, thirdly, Congress supporters seem to have voted against the JD(S) in constituencies where Gowda’s party had no base. But more worrisome would be the future of the state government. If the JD(S) manages to win just one or two seats, then the mistrust with the Congress will grow larger and dangerous, jeopardising the very survival of the coalition.
Speculation is rife in political circles that the growing bitterness, animosity and mistrust among the coalition partners would lead to a full-blown war between the Congress and JD(S) and that the coalition is unlikely to last after May 23 (counting of votes). Many Congress MLAs were just waiting to jump ship.
If the outing is disastrous to the party, these fence-sitters would just resign and force the majority number to dip reducing the Kumaraswamy government to a minority. This is what opposition leader BS Yeddyurappa of the BJP has been saying. Congress and JD(S) cadre had openly rebelled against the parties’ diktat and worked against the coalition’s candidates in several key constituencies.
This became evident in Mandya when a section of the Congress cadre supported independent candidate Sumalatha Ambareesh and refused to back Karnataka CM HD Kumaraswamy’s son – Nikhil Kumaraswamy. Similarly, Congress workers had refused to support former Prime Minister and JD(S) supremo HD Deve Gowda, who contested from the Tumakuru segment.
In retaliation, the JD(S) cadre refused to support Congress candidate CH Vijayashankar in the Mysuru-Kodagu, Kolar and Chikkaballapur segments. JD(S) MLA from Chamundeshwari GT Devegowda had in April, told the media that the JD(S) workers in Mysuru had voted for the BJP.
India Today-My Axis poll has predicted that the BJP would win 21- 25 seats, and the Congress-JD(S) coalition would win 3-5 seats, with the Congress gaining 2-3 and JD(S) winning 1-2 seats respectively. CNN News18-IPSOS poll predicted that the BJP would gain 20-23 seats, while the Congress-JD(S) coalition would bag 5-8 constituencies.
The Times Now-VMR poll has also given the BJP a considerable lead with the party predicted to win 21 seats, followed by Congress winning 6 seats and the JD(S) winning 1 seat. Republic-Jan Ki Baat survey has given the BJP 18-20 seats, the Congress-JD(S) coalition 10-7 seats and 1 seat for an independent.
Republic-CVoter exit poll has predicted that the BJP, Congress-JD(S) coalition, and independent would win 18, 9 and 1 seats respectively. NewsX-NETA exit poll has predicted a lead for the BJP with 15 seats, followed by Congress with 10 seats and the JD(S) with 2 seats and others 1.
Today’s Chanakya has allocated 23 plus or minus 4 seats for the BJP, 5 plus or minus 4 seats for the Congress-JD(S) alliance. The Congress in Karnataka had forged an alliance with the JD(S) for the Assembly elections and adopted the template for the Lok Sabha elections too. The Congress contested from 20 constituencies, while the JD(S) was offered eight segments.
