India continued to show an upward trend in the COVID-19 graph as the country recorded a single-day rise of 44,230 cases on Friday.
The R-factor, which indicates the speed at which COVID-19 infection is spreading in the country, is climbing steadily with Kerala and the northeastern states occupying top spots fuelling worries about the pandemic rearing its head again.
Kerala has been reporting over 22,000 cases for the past three days now. On Friday, it reported over 22,000 coronavirus cases for the third day in a row on Thursday, even as a Central team will be rushing to the state to aid it in effective management of the situation.
Meanwhile, researchers said that due to Kerala's steady R-factor growth, the state will remain in the top spot for the next couple of weeks vis-a-vis new infections.
The R-factor indicates the speed at which the viral infection is spreading in the country and analysis by researchers at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai suggests Kerala has more worries in store.
An R-value of 0.95 means, every 100 infected people on an average pass on the infection to 95 other individuals. If the R-value is lesser than one, it means the number of newly infected people is lower than the number of infected people in the preceding period which means the disease incidence is going down.
The smaller the value of R, the faster the disease is on the decline. Conversely, if R is greater than one, then the number of infected people is increasing in each round -- technically, this is what is called the epidemic phase.
Kerala has the highest number of active cases and continues to have an R-value around 1.11.
"Looks like it will remain in the top spot for the next couple of weeks. The Northeast continues to have a very bad situation with most states having R-value more than one," Sitabhra Sinha of the Institute of Mathematical Sciences said, reported news agency PTI.
According to a report by NDTV, on Thursday, Karnataka recorded a steep spike in COVID-19 cases. The southern state reported 2,052 new cases, 34 per cent more than Wednesday's tally of 1,531.
The Union Health Ministry on Thursday said it will depute a six-member team to Kerala for effective COVID-19 management as the state reports a spike in daily cases.
The team headed by National Centre for Disease Control Director S K Singh will reach Kerala on Friday and visit some districts reporting a high case positivity rate. The high case positivity has remained a cause of concern at a time when the overall coronavirus numbers are on a decline in the country.
Kerala on Thursday logged 22,064 new COVID-19 cases and 128 deaths, taking the caseload to 33,49,365 and the death toll to 16,585.
In the northeast, only Tripura has an R-value substantially lower than one while Manipur has gone only marginally below one. Among other states in India, Uttarakhand has an R-value very close to one at the moment.
Among the major cities, the R-value of Delhi was inching towards one. The R-value between June 21- 26 was 0.8. It declined to 0.66 between June 28 and July 6, but rose to 0.84 between July 4 and 20.
Explaining the situation in the national capital, he said if the number of active cases is constant, then the R-value is one.
"Even if R momentarily goes over one, there is a possibility that you can contain it. For example, if the active cases are in hundred, you still have the possibility that you contain it before it goes completely out of hand. Once it goes to a few thousand and R is greater than one then the situation is dangerous," Sinha explained.
For the national capital, the R-value between June 21- 26 was 0.80. It dropped to 0.66 from June 28-July 6, but it rose to 0.84 between July 4-20.
For Bengaluru, the R-value from July 7-13 was 0.92. It increased marginally to 0.95 from July 13-17. It dropped to 0.72 from July 17-23.
In the case of Mumbai, the R-value was 0.96 between July 2-4. It dropped to 0.89 between July 6-9. It further dropped to 0.74 between July 22-24.
For Chennai, the R-value between June 29 to July 7 was 0.63. It shot up to 1.05 between July 16-19. It was 0.94 between 21-24, showing signs of decline. In the case of Kolkata, the R-value was 0.80 between July 1-13, followed by 0.91 between July 12-17. It dropped to 0.86 between July 17-24.
(With inputs from PTI)
