SANJAY KUMAR, a Professor and Director at Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, and PRANAV GUPTA, a Researcher with Lokniti – CSDS, write that between action and promise there falls a shadow, which is lengthening by the day.
At the end of the first year, one would hesitate to give full marks to the Narendra Modi government. This is because, though several initiatives have been taken in the last 12 months, many of them are still to take off, or are still in the pipeline and we really do not know what shape they will take in the coming months.
The way the Modi government is working, it may not be inappropriate to say it is “governance in progress”. But from this it is difficult to guess whether he has really done hard work or is trying to create an illusion. Similarly from Modi’s ‘governance in progress’ it is difficult to guess how far would Modi’s initiatives take the developmental work forward.
The government has already identified and launched a set of core flagship schemes. Their implementation is going to determine whether the government would be able to fulfill its promise of bringing Achche Din. The most successful initiative until now has been the Jan Dhan Yojana under which more than 15 crore bank accounts were opened in less than a year. The second stage of the scheme – social security and insurance — has already been launched and more than 7 crore people have enrolled in two weeks. The progress on other programmes has been relatively slower and results are not fully visible.
Swachh Bharat Abhiyan led to an increase in toilet construction last year, but progress remained limited on the second front – improving waste disposal and local cleanliness. A key focus of the Prime Minister’s foreign visits has been on generating enthusiasm for ‘Make in India’, but the envisaged foreign investment is yet to trickle in. Modi’s dream programmes of Smart Cities and Namami Gange have only received Cabinet approval and are yet to roll out.
Though slower than many would have liked, the government has indeed been active on economic reforms. The FDI cap has been increased in key sectors like Insurance, Defence and Railway Infrastructure. They managed to convince the Opposition on key economic legislations like the Coal Bill and the Mines and Minerals Bill. Auctions for the Coal Blocks and 2G Spectrum generated massive revenues for the government and would help in reviving these sectors. On the other hand, they were unable to get the GST Constitution Amendment Bill and the Real Estate Bill passed.
Likewise, the government has been working on realizing PM’s objective of ‘Cooperative Federalism’. It is proposed to increase the state’s share in Central Taxes from 32 percent to 42 percent, which could potentially transform Centre-state relations. But it remains to be seen whether states increase their social sector spending to balance the lower central spending in health and education. The Planning Commission has been replaced with the NITI Aayog but we still don’t know what role the new institution is expected to play in determining the country’s development policy.
The government has made steady progress on infrastructure. As per Cabinet Minister Nitin Gadkari, the highway construction speed has increased from 2 km per day to 12 km per day. In the power sector, there has been a significant rise in laying transmission lines and steps have been taken to fully utilize the installed capacity.
The one year journey has not been completely smooth and there have been more hurdles than Modi would have liked. The Land Acquisition Bill generated a lot of negative publicity for the government as the opposition used it to label it as “anti farmer”. The government was particularly criticized for introducing exceptions to the Consent clause. Matters were made worse by the heavy crop damage across the country due to unseasonal rains.
Inflammatory remarks by a section within the party have kept the government in constant damage control mode with spokespersons disassociating the party and the government from them.
Some programmes, such as self attestation of documents and the ‘Give it up’ initiative (voluntarily giving up LPG subsidy), which were launched with much fanfare, remain mere announcements and have not been implemented properly at the ground level. Many programmes like PAHAL – Direct Cash Transfer of LPG subsidy — have become a success in terms of enrolment and delivery but the government has failed to communicate to people the benefits drawn from such programmes.
The kind of mandate that Modi received from people clearly reflects the level of expectations that they have from him. But expectations can be fulfilled only if the government delivers by providing jobs, basic infrastructure like electricity and water and enhances their disposable income. The government has been able to control prices of many key commodities but the real challenge lies in reviving employment, as job generation continues to remain slow in most sectors. Delivering on these fronts is the only way the government can win the battle of perception. This will also enable it to counter the negative narrative that the government is “anti-poor”, “pro corporate” and “pro rich”.
A direct question that arises from this is whether people are losing faith in the Modi government or are they still hopeful? Findings from a series of surveys conducted by Centre for the Study of Developing Societies can help in providing an answer to this critical question. The surveys show that most people believe that the Achche Din promised by the government have not come yet. Despite this disappointment, it would be incorrect to claim that the government has lost public support. People still continue to have faith in the government and are ready to wait
The key for the central government as it enters its second year is quite clear. It has to ensure that delivery picks up on the starts that it has made in its first year. The argument that the government is trying to correct mistakes made in the last 60 years is not going to work for long. In its first year, the government has concentrated on the critical process of laying the foundation but now it needs to speed up the process of constructing the building without compromising on quality.
