Though BSP and SP may cycle out Trinamool and keep government out of trouble, it would be a numbers game from now on.

NEW DELHI : The BJP, looking at the UPA numbers and vulnerability of the government, is likely to seek a special session of Parliament.

Once Mamata Banerjee informs President Pranab Mukherjee formally of her decision and her six ministers tender their resignations to the Prime Minister, the President will have to call for vote of confidence in Parliament.

The UPA II would then be technically in a working minority, its numbers diminishing from 273 to 254. It will have to depend on the allies – Samajwadi Party (22 MPs), Bahujan Samaj Party (21 MPs), Rashtriya Janata Dal (4 MPs) and Janata Dal (Secular) (3 MPs) – to keep the government out of trouble.

The allies will now be critical, especially if there is a vote of confidence. Already, the Samajwadi Party has sounded a note of caution. Senior leader Ram Gopal Yadav has ruled out joining the government, saying any party joining the Congress at this stage “will be wiped out in 2014 (general elections)”.

The Congress, in other words, will be banking on Mayawati to bail out the government with her 21 MPs. Mayawati is still smarting from her defeat in Uttar Pradesh and is not keen on early poll. She also needs a favourably inclined government at the Centre, given the number of corruption cases stacked against her. But like Mamata she will also extract her pound of flesh.

The BJP is expected to turn the screws on the boxed-in UPA Government and leave it gasping for breath, if not ousted from power. Senior BJP leader Ravi Shankar Prasad is quite sure that the “beginning of the downfall of the UPA government has started”. He added that the decision of the Trinamool Congress chief had exposed the arrogance of the Congress party, adding that the “countdown has started”.

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