The BJP will not get a majority in Rajya Sabha even in the Modi government’s second term. Its strength may rather slide from the present 93 seats to 74 in the biennial elections due next year, far from the majority mark of 123 in the House of 245.
The states from which it may lose seats are the Congress-ruled Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and the YSR Congress-ruled Andhra. Elections are due for 4 of the 10 seats from Rajasthan, 3 of which are now held by BJP national vice-president Om Prakash Mathur, Ram Kumar Verma and Raja Harshvardhan Dungarpur. The BJP will lose over 2 seats and similarly, it will lose 2 in Chhattisgarh.
Three BJP members are retiring next year from Andhra Pradesh and the party will have to forego all the 3 seats because of the thumping majority of the YSR Congress.
The Assembly polls are due in 8 states next year; 5 are UP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur in 2022-start, and 3 others in Gujarat, Himachal and J&K in October-December. Any setback to BJP in UP because of anti-incumbency may damage the party’s strength in Rajya Sabha.
UP has the highest 31 seats in the Rajya Sabha, but the biennial elections are due in April only for 12 seats, 9 of which are with BJP. Punjab has 7 RS seats, but in the current scenario, BJP will draw a blank unless it ends the divorce with Akali Dal and the latter recaptures the state from the Congress in the Assembly elections due in January.