London: If the countries stick to the climate efforts that they have now committed, these could lead to long term temperature increase to around three degree Celsius, a notch above the goal of limiting global warming to two degree Celsius, projects new research.
A total of 155 countries representing around 90 percent of global emissions have submitted their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) on climate policy to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in preparation of the new climate negotiations to be held in December in Paris.
If aggregated and fully implemented, unconditional INDCs (without international climate financial support or international cooperation mechanisms) could set global emissions growth at around 17 percent above 2010 level by 2030, showed the assessment by European Commission Joint Research Centre.
The researchers projected that global emissions would peak in 2020 and decline afterwards to 10 percent below 2010 levels by 2030. However, they found that global emissions could peak shortly before 2030 at 12 percent above 2010 level.
Assuming countries would keep on their efforts after 2030, these could limit the long term temperature increase to around three degree Celsius. The analysis was presented in the form of a policy brief at the preparatory meeting INDC Forum in Rabat, Morocco.