New Delhi: India is set to get a normal monsoon this year, with average rainfall likely to be 97 percent, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Monday. The prediction stands at a moderate error estimated of plus-minus 5 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA). A figure between 96 to 104 percent is considered normal monsoon.
Earlier, on April 4, private weather forecasting agency Skymet also predicted normal monsoon keeping it at 100 percent, with an error estimate of plus-minus 5 percent. However, a clearer picture of the season, which normally extends from June 1 to September 30, would only be available in June, IMD said.
“India will receive normal monsoon this year. The forecast suggests that the monsoon rainfall during the 2018 season averaged over the country as a whole is likely to be 97 percent,” IMD Director General K.J. Ramesh said at press conference here.
Hoping that the monsoon will be constant and not sporadic, IMD said that region based forecast will be available only during the second assessment in June and the date of the monsoon’s onset into Kerala will be announced in mid-May.
In 2017, while IMD predicted 96 percent average rainfall in its first forecast in April, the monsoon season over the country as a whole was 97 percent of its Long Period Average (LPA). In 2017, the average seasonal rainfall over northwest India was 95 percent, in central India 106 percent, in southern peninsula 92 percent and in northeast India 89 percent.
IMD in October 2017 said that while 72 percent of the total area of the country received normal rainfall, 13 percent area got excess rainfall and 15 percent deficient seasonal rainfall. According to the weatherman, below 90 percent rainfall is considered deficient and at 95 percent it is considered below normal. A figure between 96 and 104 percent of rainfall indicates a normal monsoon and between 105 and 110 percent above normal.