Thiruvananthapuram : Kerala may once again repeat the four decade-old history of throwing out incumbent governments if the exit poll findings released after the elections on Monday are any indication.
Though the surveys’ predictions on the number of seats won varies, all predict a comfortable victory for the Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led opposition Left Democratic Front (LDF).
While the India Today-Axis My India survey says the LDF will get 88 to 101 seats in the 140-member Assembly, the Times Now-C-Voter survey projects 74 to 82 seats for the LDF and 54 to 62 seats for the Congress-led United Democratic Front.
The CNN-IBN and the Chanakya poll surveys have also predicted thumping victory for the LDF. All the surveys give the BJP a chance to open its account in the Assembly for the first since it entered the electoral fray in 1982.
While the Axis My India survey predicts 0 to 3 seats for the BJP, the India Today gives BJP one seat and the Times Now-C-Voter survey two seats. According to the Axis My India survey BJP is likely to secure seats in the northern district of Kasargod, Palakkad and Thiruvananthapuram.
Though the BJP campaign was powered by a long array of national leaders of the BJP led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the party may not maintain its local body election vote share of 14.81 percent. The Axis My India survey predicts 11 percent vote share.
The BJP had polled only 6.31 per cent votes in the Assembly polls in 2011. The projected vote share of the fronts shows that the BJP had eaten into the UDF votes, which will see its vote share declining from 45.83 per cent to 35 per cent.
Though the LDF is projected to make big gains, its vote share does not show any increase. According to the Axis My India survey the LDF vote share will come down from 44.94 per cent to 43 per cent.
The survey indicates a strong anti-incumbency sentiment in favour of the LDF. Curiously, such a strong wave was not perceptible in the campaign. The Axis My Survey suggests that the LDF may get massive support from the women, who may have turned against the UDF following the rape and murder of Dalit law student Jisha at Perumbavoor.
