New Delhi : Not a happy prediction, indeed. An average 2,500 people may die daily due to polluted air by 2040 in India if the government fails to put in stringent regulations to check outdoor air pollution, a report said today. The report by International Energy Agency (IEA) ‘World Energy Outlook’ (WEO) also mentioned that in 2015, 5,90,000 premature deaths were attributed to outdoor air pollution annually an average of over 1,600 a day. An additional one million premature deaths were due to household air pollution. The report, which analyzed two scenarios including existing new policies, said the rules are effective in cutting power sector pollutant emissions while the New Bharat VI standard brings down NOX and PM2.5 emissions in transport but these achievements are more than “offset” by strong growth in emissions from industry and transformation sector.
Advocating a clean air scenario, it said it will demonstrate the positive impact that timely and more stringent air pollution regulations can have on public health. It also said the number of premature deaths associated with household air pollution will drop to around 8 lakh if use of cleaner cook stoves expands.
Talking about Delhi, which has been plagued by poor air quality for more than a decade, it said the ambient concentrations of respirable PM2.5 have been more than ten-times in excess of the WHO air quality guideline value. “The net result is that air quality remains an important policy concern through to 2040. Although the average loss of life expectancy declines to 16 months, the number of people dying prematurely from outdoor air pollution grows to over 9,00,000. “The number of premature deaths associated with household air pollution drops to around 8,00,000 as the use of cleaner cook stoves expands,” the report said.
The report said that in the clean air scenario which involves achieving universal access to clean cooking facilities, imposing emission standards on heavy duty vehicles, more stringent fuel quality standards and limits on emission from industry sector, the number of premature deaths by outdoor air pollution may reach 5,60,000. “By 2040, the average loss of life expectancy drops to eight months and the number of premature deaths attributable to air pollution to around 5,60,000 (outdoor pollution) and 3,60,000 (household air pollution). Talking about Delhi, it said that traditional use of biomass for cooking and two coal-fired power plants (Badarpur and Rajghat) are the main sources of PM2.5 emissions in Delhi. “Without action to tackle these emissions, among others, PM emissions in Delhi are expected to increase by 25 per cent over the next 15 years under current legislation. “Emissions could fall by 35 per cent over the next 15 years, if effective measures to reduce emissions from the power sector and traditional open cooking were taken and proved successful,” it said.
On an overall basis for India, it said that the existing and planned policies in India help contain pollutant emissions growth in the New Policies Scenario – SO2 and NOX emissions each grow by about 10 per cent to 2040 and PM2.5 emissions by 7 per cent, despite strong economic growth. Noting that emissions continue to fall in industrialised countries, the study said that while in China, recent signs of decline are consolidated, emissions generally rise in India, Southeast Asia and Africa as expected growth in energy demand “dwarfs” policy efforts related to air quality.
