Kashmir is sitting on a powder keg. There is on one side a sinister game being played by Pakistan which has been persistently fomenting trouble in this idyllic land and on the other deepening alienation between the political parties in the State and the ruling dispensation in New Delhi which percolates down to the people.
A recent report has revealed that a whopping 82 per cent of the militants killed in Jammu and Kashmir in the first six months of 2019 were recruited in the Valley. It reflects not only a change of strategy on the part of the across-the-border trainers but also manifests a growing desperation of the youth with lack of job opportunities in the Valley with the prolonged state of flux that prevails. People at large are apprehensive that a new round of violence is on the anvil. The credibility of the Centre is at a low ebb and while the war on terror and terrorists is gaining ground in recent months, there are not enough avenues for the local youth to expend their energies in the absence of jobs.
The replacement of Rajnath Singh by the volatile Amit Shah as Home minister has led to intense speculation that the Centre’s policy towards Kashmir will henceforth be muscular and uncompromising. What has added grist to the rumour mill is the Centre’s decision to send in 10,000 paramilitary personnel, ostensibly, for 'counter insurgency' and for maintaining 'law and order' in the Valley. Local political parties see in this a design to push down their throat changes in Article 35A which would alter the character of the Valley.
Measures to revoke Jammu and Kashmir’s special status may have been long overdue but it is questionable whether this is the right time for radical changes. Political parties have sown and nurtured doubts in the minds of the local people with vested interests.
The tough Kashmir policy symbolised by the handing over of Home to Amit Shah and the increasing role of National Security Adviser Ajit Doval in affairs relating to the State visualises a clinical attack on the support bases of militancy in the valley by targeting, principally, the separatists and foreign funding networks. The al-Qaeda is becoming increasingly interested in the Kashmir issue and hardcore IS cadres have found their way into the valley. That has heightened the challenge which the Governor has not been equal to. It is being surmised that the relentless attack on militant bases and on terror funding will contribute to stopping border incursions into India and with the oxygen supply cut off to local militancy, such activity would decrease.
All regional parties of Jammu and Kashmir, including the National Conference (NC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Jammu and Kashmir People's Movement (J&KPM) are strongly lobbying against any tinkering with Articles 35A and 370. The latter was the original special status provision that was knit into the scheme of things brought about by Kashmir’s accession to India.
PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti recently took to Twitter and wrote, "Centre's decision to deploy additional 10,000 troops in the Valley has created fear psychosis amongst people. There is no dearth of security forces in Kashmir. J&K is a political problem which won't be solved by military means. GoI [Government of India] needs to rethink and overhaul its policy." Mehbooba is a crafty woman who has no qualms in taking on the establishment if she feels her political purpose would be achieved. When she was mauled in the recent Assembly polls, she saw opposition to the Centre as the best way to win back the trust of the people.
NC chief Omar Abdullah has a point when he says that the Centre ought to wait for the verdict of the Supreme Court where a bunch of petitions challenging Article 35A and Article 370 are pending. He said recently: "Why should you hurry? We will respect the decision of the Supreme Court as we have always done.” The Supreme Court needs to act fast and decisively. But speed is not the virtue of the judiciary in these times. There are rumours that the Assembly polls in Jammu and Kashmir could be held in October-November. If that be so, the hard measures against militants must be balanced with a more participative approach with people at large.
The alienation has to be minimised. There is little support among the people for the cult of violence. That must be played upon. There is indeed need for the climate of fear to be dispelled before a serious move is taken to try to cajole the people of Kashmir to join the country’s mainstream.
Kashmiri youth are gradually branching out to study in institutions across the country. That must be encouraged. At the same time, more industrial units must be set up so that Kashmir’s youth get employment where they belong.
All in all, it is not a goal sans hope. The political leaders, however, have to tread warily and the sensibilities of the people have to be kept in mind.
Kamlendra Kanwar is a political commentator and columnist. He has authored four books.
