On a broader basis, at current levels one should be cautious.
On a broader basis, at current levels one should be cautious.

16:00 hrs Update: After the Closing Bell

Nifty (CMP 10952, DOWN 16 points):

WHAT A MIRACLE!!

Well, judging by today’s trading action at Dalal Street, the bears seem to be again trapped inside the cave — simply unthinkable — and stunningly, the bulls were overwhelmed by joy amidst the magnificent recovery on the benchmark Nifty from the mentioned 10,871 mark.

Well, its Santa’s season and we suspect, the trading screens should shine bright from here on with all bullish eyes on magical Nifty 11,000 mark. Now, if global stock markets recover then expect the Dalal Street to simply outperform with aggressive targets on Nifty at 11,111 mark by this December expiry.

The technical landscape is aggressively bullish as long as Nifty stays above the key support at 10,871 mark.

Amongst stocks looking attractive on the buy side for tomorrow’s trade are VOLTAS, UPL, and BANK OF BARODA.

Now before we sign off for the day, let’s look at major instruments.

4.00 PM GLOBAL UPDATE:

DOW Futures (-28, 23288)
NASDAQ Futures (+6, 6340)
DAX (-105, 10661)
FTSE (-37, 6730)

OIL (+1.72, $47.96)
GOLD (+3, $1259)
DOLLAR INDEX (-0.74, 96.23)
COPPER (-31, 6033)

How Asia fared today:

HANG SENG (-263, 25608)
NIKKEI (-595, 20393)
SHANGHAI (-13, 2536)

SGX NIFTY (+0, 10990)
USD/INR (-0.05, 70.36)

15:00 hrs Update: Where’s the clever money going at 3 PM?

Nifty (-35, 10935): Dalal Street seen outperforming its global peers.

Nifty seen holding supports at 10871. Hurdles seen at 11000 mark.

Probable BTST/STBT trades:

Bullish looking BTST stocks: VOLTAS, AJANTA PHARMA, ESCORTS, DIVIS LAB, UPL, TITAN,

Bearish looking STBT stocks: HUL, CHOLAMANDALAM, HEXAWARE

13:45 Markets Update: Life at Dalal Street after Europe’s Opening Bell

Fed-related selloff continues to drag sentiments at Dalal Street

DAX (-134, 10632)
FTSE (-92, 6673)

DOW Futures (-71, 23245)
NASDAQ Futures (-24, 6311)

HANG SENG (-263, 25608)
NIKKEI (-595, 20393)
SHANGHAI (-13, 2536)

Nifty (-43, 10925)
Bank Nifty (-0.43%, 27245)

Nifty continues to trade in red on the heels of a bruising session at Wall Street and a weak Asia this Thursday. At the time of writing, Europe too joins the conga-line of falling stock markets

1. The negative catalysts: The Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hike and as outlook on future moves continues.
2. Global growth concerns.

Technically, the must-watch intraday supports for Nifty and Bank Nifty are at 10771 and 27101 respectively.

Major support for Nifty at 10741 mark.

12:00 pm Mid-day Update:

Nifty 10907, DOWN 61 points

Nifty continues to trade in negative territory, as cautiousness continues to prevail amidst global growth concerns.

• HDFC and Reliance Industries have dropped 1.62% and 1.53% respectively. Support for RIL seen at 1091-1101 zone.

• Amongst sectoral indices, the Metal index is underperforming, trading in red, down 1.37%; Bank Nifty slightly below dotted lines, down 0.60%. Pharma index is struggling to float in green, up 011%.

• The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market is positive.

• NSE Advances 17. NSE declines 33.

• Interestingly, the NSE Mid-Cap index is up 0.39% at 4095. The NSE Small-Cap index is also up 0.40%.

• In F&O space, BEML and UJJIVAN are star performers, up 7% and 6.75% respectively. Yes Bank is also trading with positive bias, up 2.72% while on flip side NALCO & HINDALCO are down 3.90% & 2.47% respectively. DABUR is down 2.47%.

• The Indian rupee has strengthened a bit now, trading at 70.32 against the US dollar

11:30 am Commodities Update:

Copper takes a beating as global growth concerns hit the front page.

Gold (-7.90, 1248.85). Neutral Bias. Buy only above 1255.
MCX Gold (-0.52%, 31062). Hurdles at 31901. Support is seen at 30861.

Silver (-0.0175, 14.64). Weakness is seen. Confirmation of strength above 14.95.
MCX Silver (-1.13%, 37252) Supports at 36820 and then at 36101. Hurdles at 38501.

Crude Oil (-1.04, 47.13). Weakness persists. Hurdles at 51.50.
MCX Crude Oil (-1.39, 3334). Hurdles at 3601.

Copper (-0.008, 2.667). U.S- China trade truce key catalyst.
MCX Copper (-1.74%, 417.25). Downside risk at 401. Hurdles at 431.

09:45 am Markets Update: Nifty Crucial levels

Nifty’s CMP 10,911 (DOWN 57 points).

After a gap-down start, Nifty seen trading with slight nervousness.

The big question: Where is the intraday support on Nifty?

Well, the make-or-break support level for Nifty is at 10,871. Please note any close below 10,871 will trigger massive selling, targeting 10741.

What Technical Tells Us On Nifty:

Overbought technical conditions prevail.

Nifty’s KEY SUPPORTS: 10871/10741/10527.
Nifty’s KEY HURDLE: 11001/11,111.

Nifty’s INTRADAY RANGE: 10,871-10,981.
Nifty’s OUTLOOK FOR THE DAY: Major weakness only below 10871.

We understand that it’s the season where miracles can happen, but for that Nifty needs to hold above 10,871.

09:30 am Markets Update: Make Informed Decisions

(Nifty: 10917, DOWN -49points): Bulls need to watch out as Bears resurface on Dalal Street!!!

Metals are the obvious villains amidst global growth concerns. Nifty’s hurdle will continue to be at 11000 mark.

Amongst stocks on positive side are: IBULLSHSGFIN (+1.30%, 851) ASIAN PAINTS (+1.05%, 1415) YES BANK (+0.97%, 181.30)

On the negative side are: VEDANTA (-2.47%, 201.75) HINDALCO (-2.33%, 221.85) BHARTI AIRTEL (-1.70%, 23410).

08:30 am Markets Update: What caught our eye at 08:30 am

8.30 AM UPDATE, 20th December 2018: DOW FUTURES (+55, 23371) NASDAQ FUTURES (+19, 6353) SGX NIFTY (-85, 10900) NIKKEI (-356, 20631) HANG SENG (-135, 25731) SHANGHAI (-12, 2537)

SUCCESSFUL INVESTING IS ANTICIPATING THE TRENDS OF:

Nifty’s Intraday Trend: Neutral.
Global: Negative.
FII: Positive.
DII: Neutral.
F&O: Positive.
‪Sentiment: Cautious.

NIFTY’s CRUCIAL LEVELS FOR THE DAY:

Nifty’s CURRENT MARKET PRICE: 10,967.
Nifty’s KEY SUPPORTS: 10,875 & 10,751.
Nifty’s KEY HURDLE: 11,000 & 11,111.
Nifty’s INTRADAY RANGE: 10871-11001.
Nifty’s OUTLOOK FOR THE DAY: Volatile.

Our call of the day suggests that the benchmark Nifty may trade volatile and with negative bias joining the conga-line of falling worldwide stock markets.

Our chart of the day suggests establishing long positions in stocks like DHFL, ASAIN PAINTS, and EXIDE INDUSTRIES with an interweek perspective only on any sharp corrective declines.

IMPORTANT THEMES OF THE DAY: Wall Street tumbled in Wednesday’s trade and the negative takeaway was that the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are all now sitting in negative territory for the 2018 year, the first down year since 2015. The Russell 2000, a basket of smaller U.S. based companies, closed in the bear market territory.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has slipped into correction territory after the index has fallen more than 10% below its Oct. 3 record high, meeting the widely used definition of a correction. Dow Jones index has now joined the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq in correction territory.

• Dow at the lowest level since March 23, 2019.
• The S&P 500 at its lowest level since October of 2017.
• Nasdaq at its lowest since November of 2017.

You can blame it to:

• Sluggish global growth.
• Lack of clarity and progress in U.S.-China trade talks.
• Rising interest rates.

8:00 am Markets Update: Calculus Derivatives Corner

• Nifty December Futures ended Wednesday’s session at a premium of +13 against +37.

• The Put- Call Open Interest Ratio was at 1.48 for Nifty whereas it was 1.29 for Bank Nifty.

• The Put-Call Volume Ratio was at 1.01 for the Nifty and 1.15 for Bank Nifty.

• For Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 11000 Strike Price, followed by 11100 Strike Price for December Series. Short covering was seen at strike prices 10800-11000 for December Series.

• Maximum Put Open Interest (OI) was seen at strike price 10000 followed by 10500 strike price for December series. Put writing was seen at strike prices 10900-11100 for December Series.

• For Bank Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 26500 Strike Price, followed by 27000 Strike Price for December Series.

• As per Wednesday’s Provisional Data available on the NSE, FII’s bought shares worth Rs. 1209.21 crores in the Indian Equity Market. DIIs, on the other hand, sold shares worth Rs. 481.46 crores in the Indian Equity market.

• Long Buildup: L&T FH, DHFL, DLF, NCC, UPL.

• Short Buildup: SUN PHARMA, INFY, HCL TECH, TCS, INDUSIND.

• Short Covering: DISH TV, JSW STEEL, INDIACEM, HDFC, M&M.

• Long Unwinding: ADANI POWER, RELIANCE, TITAN, MCX, CUMMINS.

• Stocks banned in F&O segment for today: ADANI ENT, ADANI POWER, JET AIRWAYS, RELCAP.

7:00 am Market Update:

The numbers are in and the verdict is out !!

First the numbers!

The numbers: The Federal Open Market Committee lifted interest rates for the fourth time this year and the ninth time since the beginning of its monetary-policy normalization imitative in December of 2015. The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee lifted the federal-funds rate to a range between 2.25% to 2.50%.

The Fed lowered the median forecast for rate hikes in 2019 to two hikes from three previously. The FOMC cooled their view of the U.S. economy heading into next year. Although it now expects gross domestic product (GDP), or economic growth, to hit 3% this year, it projected that would fall to 2.3% in 2019.

The FOMC statement also kept its assessment that the risks to the economic outlook were “roughly balanced” while introducing a clause about monitoring “global economic and financial developments,” a nod to the turmoil in financial markets as well as growth concerns overseas in countries including China.

The Verdict: Wall Street slumped, relinquishing their early morning gains to close deep in red. The Dow Jones index finished a turbulent session sharply lower, down 352 points to close at 223324.

The fall was quite obvious as the big negative take away from Fed’s meet outcome is that the bank lowered its growth and inflation forecasts for 2019 and at the same time will continue raising interest rates.

Agreed that the policy statement was slightly more dovish, but there is an element of uncertainty for financial markets as the language clearly suggests growth to slow.

Bottom-line: Weaker economic growth virtually everywhere indicates the return of real risk for stock market investors

Outlook for Thursday: The return of risk.

Early action at SGX Nifty suggests a gap down open for our stock markets, down 78 points at 10908. Our call of the day suggests that the benchmark Nifty may trade volatile and with negative bias joining the conga-line of falling worldwide stock markets.

Upside from here on will be capped at 11000-11111 zone. Profit booking likely to be the preferred theme.

Before we conclude, Let’s look at major instruments.

7 AM GLOBAL UPDATE: DOW (-351, 23323) NASDAQ (-147, 6636) SGX NIFTY (-91, 10895) NIKKEI (-16, 21098) HANG SENG (-6, 25859) OIL (+1.72, $47.96) GOLD (-9, $1247)

Markets Update: December 20, 2018 – Today’s action in the Markets

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