Oxford study says India will take longest to recover from COVID-19 economic impact, Congress mocks Modi govt's unlock decision
(PTI Photo)

The Congress party on Wednesday mocked the central government after a study report by Oxford Economics said that India will take the longest to recover from COVID-19's economic impact.

While quoting a report, Congress said: "Oxford Economics Report states India will take the longest to recover from COVID's economic impact. The report further states that the govt's attempts to "Unlock" are proving to be futile, as the pandemic is still in full force in many parts of India."

Global forecasting firm Oxford Economics on Tuesday said it expects India's GDP growth to lose momentum from late third quarter (October-December) of the current fiscal as the push from the initial reopening fades.

According to Oxford Economics report, India fares the worst in its Asia recovery scorecard, implying that the country will likely take the longest among major economies to converge to its pre-coronavirus growth level. Oxford Economics, in a report titled 'India: A reopening gone wrong', said the central government's attempts to restart the economy are already running aground.

"In our baseline, we expect GDP growth to lose momentum from late Q3 on, once the push from the initial reopening fades and, likely compounded by the ongoing pandemic and inadequate policy support, legacy economic headwinds re-assert themselves. The risk clearly is that proactive steps by regional governments, especially the richer ones, to stem the spread of the virus bring the tipping point forward," it said.

According to Oxford Economics, early data suggests that the positive economic impact of the accelerated lockdown exit will be felt in June, with the effect reinforced by a global growth pick-up that has aided a recovery in exports. "The outlook beyond that, however, has turned more worrisome. The reopening drive is already beginning to hit roadblocks, amid the surge in COVID-19 cases," it observed. It pointed out that new virus hotspots have emerged across the country since late June and, barring Delhi, no major region has had notable success in containing the virus. India's economic growth stood at 4.2 per cent in 2019-20.

India's COVID-19 tally went past 15 lakh on Wednesday, two days after it crossed the 14-lakh mark, with 48,513 fresh cases recorded in a day while the recoveries surged to 9,88,029, according to the Union Health Ministry data. The total coronavirus cases climbed to 15,31,669, while the country's death toll due to the disease rose to 34,193 with 768 deaths being reported in a 24-hour span, the data updated at 8 am showed. There are 5,09,447 active cases of coronavirus infection in the country presently. The recovery rate among COVID-19 patients has risen to 64.51 per cent.

(Inputs from PTI)

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